Which to buy?? AIA FPH MFT THL

[Jay]

I am looking to purchase one more share for the portfolio and due to current holdings etc have narrowed it down to these 4
AIA, FPH, MFT and THL
Looking for some growth and dividends over the next 2 years maybe longer

All are affected by the dollar, if the NZ weakens (say dropping below 70c US for example) against the US will help all 4 I think, two are in tourism and THL has the best yield currently
Tourism is said to remain high for the next 4-5 years I think I read, however both FPH and MFT seem to keep on keeping on
Decisions, decisions

Thoughts

[Scooter]

In this order THL, FPH, MFT, AIA (think it will shift sideways for next few years)

[LAC]

FPH is a good solid business always impressing but my pick would have to be THL if I HAD to do it myself. Timing on when to buy I honestly dont know. You could wait and get it cheaper then again it just might get out of reach....who knows.

[percy]

I am looking to purchase one more share for the portfolio and due to current holdings etc have narrowed it down to these 4
AIA, FPH, MFT and THL
Looking for some growth and dividends over the next 2 years maybe longer

All are affected by the dollar, if the NZ weakens (say dropping below 70c US for example) against the US will help all 4 I think, two are in tourism and THL has the best yield currently
Tourism is said to remain high for the next 4-5 years I think I read, however both FPH and MGT seem to keep on keeping on
Decisions, decisions

Thoughts

Without knowing what else is in your portfolio, only one of the above has higher eps growth than its PE ratio.That one is THL.
That said, all are very fine companies,and anyone of them would be a good addition to anyone's portfolio.

[Oliver Mander]

Would be (in order) THL, MFT, FPH for me. Wouldn't get into AIA - little growth and a high PE. FPH also has a high PE, but supported by strong growth.
THL feels distinctly undervalued when i look at my own valuations (a consistent theme for a while now) in spite of picking up steam recently - hence being my first pick.

Disc: hold THL, MFT and FPH.

[LAC]

Might squeeze in TRA somewhere in that list

[winner69]

If you only buy 1 buy thl

Best medium term growth prospects as they head towards $50m profit

[Hoop]

FPH is a good solid business always impressing but my pick would have to be THL if I HAD to do it myself. Timing on when to buy I honestly dont know. You could wait and get it cheaper then again it just might get out of reach....who knows.

With timing to buy... waiting with up trending stocks you will always be frustrated...just buy it!!! ....

Often while waiting and watch the damn thing rise without you, frustration will eventually cloud your decision-making and create a buy at the top situation (start of a correction).....That not a bad thing in long term up trending stocks as the bull market correction is usually over within months and by holding on you are only underwater for about 3 months...Doing this behaviour with shorter term (or secondary) up trending stocks can be very damaging.

This buy at the top behaviour due to waiting for the stock to become "cheap" is not unusual..this "can't invest properly" thing is a common social problem as most "investors" (some estimate at up to 80%) buy near to the top and sell at out close to the bottom...(Newbies Beware entering the market now because its an easy way to make quick money and its safe using logic it will keep go up because its been going up for as long as I can remember...

You hear about all these media stories about share investing is a muggs game and too risky.. It's because of this "cloaked" greed mentality we have "hot-wired" in our instincts...we all want to buy "cheap bargins".... Solution...think the opposite of your "wait for cheap" instinct..I personally solve this problem by relying on TA buy and sell signals rather than "instinctive logic"....

TA_wise all mentioned THL FPH MFT have continuing buy signals (long term continual uptrending) These (THL FPH MFT) for years now have been the "must have" stocks in any portfolio, especially the longer term buy and hold (with accumulation) portfolios...............AIA is now different..It was one of that group of "must holds" but it's exponential up trend became unsubstainable and broke down exactully one year ago and being kicked out of the "must hold" group in early November 2016 when it broke below the MA200 line and officially turned into a bear.... Even though AIR has meandering sideways triggering short term buy and sell signals it has since March been signaling a continuing negative diverging disvesting sell signals. "instinctive logic" or "educated logic" may suggest property uncertaincies and logistic problems could be behind this negative investor sentiment...but it is dangerous to use either "logics" for buy/sell timing for stocks...e.g The USA sharemarket gurus have been using "expert logic" saying Wall St is extremely over valued..they have been saying that for 3 years now...The problem is, Markets run on sentiment...those 80% of investors I mentioned earlier are still fueling the top end of the market..

When using decision-making to buy a stock, the problem using "Instinctive logic" and "educated logic" is around the processing of information..Too much error using unbalanced weighting variables, most investors heavy weight the "now" situation for predicting a future scenario (long term buy and hold buy in investors).. The next error is over weight factor is using the "rear vision mirror" to judge where ones going forward..Underweighted factor is processing ALL possible future scenarios...Most investors have biases and to add another emotion to the collection is the "now sentiment"....

I notice THL is the hot favourite on this thread....It could partially be because of the "now" factor as it is currently experiencing an exponental up trend (unsubstainable in the longer term)..But hey don't get me wrong..jump in and make the best of it as waiting for a dip with these exponental up trending stocks could be terribly unrewarding and equally terrible to your investing confidence.....

Which leads me to Confidence...if you are not a confident investor then dreams of being a very successful investor is just that...a dream..

[Jay]

Thanks everyone
Yes I know about the waiting for a dip FPH nearly a classic example
My first thought were THL with AIA as last
I also think that Tourism is here to stay for a while longer so could well be the one

[Entrep]

THL seems to regullarly pull back to the 30MA. If you didn't want to buy today, you could wait for that. Although bear in mind Hoops comments above of course.

PS: this forum needs a like button so we can show appreciation for posts without having to type it and clog up the forums with more messages.