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Thread: Election odds

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    Default Election odds

    I didn't expect this, as I am not one to trust the polls. However, an efficient market is an accurate indicator:

    Centrebet odds
    Labour $1.68
    National $2.10

    This has really got me considering investment tactics over the next month(years).

    The most prudent approach to remain well positioned could be to sell off some assets. Then hedge my position by putting the proceeds on Labour taking the win.
    Last edited by Peitro; 12-09-2017 at 06:24 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peitro View Post
    I didn't expect this, as I am not one to trust the polls. However, an efficient market is an accurate indicator:

    Centrebet odds
    Labour $1.68
    National $2.10

    This has really got me considering investment tactics over the next month(years).

    The most prudent approach to remain well positioned could be to sell off some assets. Then hedge my position by putting the proceeds on Labour taking the win.
    Interesting, betfair have had a market up for a while and now Labour are odds on to be in power come 23 September. The are now also favoured to get the most seats. Thanks to alerting me to Centrebet.... I do have an account there, so shall go and have a week peek.

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    Centrebet are now offering $1.85 for Labour and $1.90 for National. Their numbers should be based on the bets they have received.

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    Reckon they are more accurate then the polls craic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Reckon they are more accurate then the polls craic.
    They generally are more accurate than the polls. However they too get them wrong. On the day of the US election, Hillary was a 1.20 favourite and Trump was at 6.00. On the eve of Brexit, Remain was at 1.10 and Leave at 11.00. So they can get it very very wrong.
    But studies at Masters level have been done as to the veracity of odds etc and they are better at predicting the outcome than polls in the whole.
    fivethirtyeight.com write a whole heap on odds and polling. Interesting site.

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    Odds on TAB and other similar sites have little to do with accurate predictions - they are simple equations designed to give the firm a profit margin regardless of the outcome. They reflect the expectations of the punters. In our case, a belief among punters that Labour were storming ahead and would easily win has altered to the present situation where punters are unsure so the odds become even. If you want to make money, look for a local hero against impossible odds. You will always get a good price on the other fellow here. An example that made me money was when David Tua? fought for the world title. But you need to bet in hundreds to make it worthwhile.

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    Quote Originally Posted by craic View Post
    Odds on TAB and other similar sites have little to do with accurate predictions - they are simple equations designed to give the firm a profit margin regardless of the outcome. They reflect the expectations of the punters. In our case, a belief among punters that Labour were storming ahead and would easily win has altered to the present situation where punters are unsure so the odds become even. If you want to make money, look for a local hero against impossible odds. You will always get a good price on the other fellow here. An example that made me money was when David Tua? fought for the world title. But you need to bet in hundreds to make it worthwhile.
    How are you going there Craic? Hope you're not too disappointed with the latest poll

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    Yes int to know the latest odds,craic, blackcap?.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Yes int to know the latest odds,craic, blackcap?.
    Still the same on Centrebet. Pretty much the same on Betfair, slight move toward Labour from what I can see.

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    The reliability will be related to the volumes, and on betfair there has only been around 5000 dollars matched. Chickenfeed so I would not pay much attention to them. While centrebet with 1.85 and 1.90 obviously will be making money with those large overrounds and have probably also hardly taken any money. If you did want a significant amount on and were one of their wnning customers they would likely refuse tthe bet anyway
    Last edited by ratkin; 14-09-2017 at 06:24 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    How are you going there Craic? Hope you're not too disappointed with the latest poll
    Robertson knows they want CGT on real estate, but says he doesn't know about businesses because they will wait for the report after the election.
    Here it goes for you Grant. Years ago when real estate transactions were subject to stamp duties, the trick for investors was to set up a company to buy a property = and sell the company which was cheaper. And if R.E. is subject to CGT buisinesses and shares will need to be too, to avoid people trading companies - so Grant, don't try and tell us you do not know about CGT on businesses.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    The reliability will be related to the volumes, and on betfair there has only been around 5000 dollars matched. Chickenfeed so I would not pay much attention to them. While centrebet with 1.85 and 1.90 obviously will be making money with those large errounds and have probably also hardly taken any money. If you did want a significant amount on and were one of their wnning customers they would likely refuse tthe bet anyway
    Correct, I can only get $100 on (well am allowed to win $100) and CB have limited my account. The Betfair site is getting more liquidity on this market the last few days, a week ago there was really rats and mice but now some larger (still not large) amounts appearing.
    Ratkin you are right about CB, they may only have taken $500 or so on this market so I think the odds are just a reflection of what they think the market should be rather than weight of money at this stage....

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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    The reliability will be related to the volumes, and on betfair there has only been around 5000 dollars matched. Chickenfeed so I would not pay much attention to them. While centrebet with 1.85 and 1.90 obviously will be making money with those large overrounds and have probably also hardly taken any money. If you did want a significant amount on and were one of their wnning customers they would likely refuse tthe bet anyway
    Yep 6.25% to Centrebet

    They say roll on up ...bet big please
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Correct, I can only get $100 on (well am allowed to win $100) and CB have limited my account. The Betfair site is getting more liquidity on this market the last few days, a week ago there was really rats and mice but now some larger (still not large) amounts appearing.
    Ratkin you are right about CB, they may only have taken $500 or so on this market so I think the odds are just a reflection of what they think the market should be rather than weight of money at this stage....
    Much of the money on betfair will just be small time traders trying to pinch a few quid backing both sides. Unlikely to turn into a big betting event, but you never know. Online bookies are terrible, they are very quick to restrict any accounts that they see no profit in, and are just chasing the problem gamblers and casuals with more money than sense.

    Even Betfair are robbers these days. have been having to pay 20% premium charge since around 2010 and when they stuck it up to 60 I pretty much gave up trading. Back around 2000-2010 it was a real betting revolution, before Black sold out. Was a License to print money in the early days, like having a money tree in the garden
    Last edited by ratkin; 14-09-2017 at 06:52 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post

    Even Betfair are robbers these days. have been having to pay 20% premium charge since around 2010 and when they stuck it up to 60 I pretty much gave up trading. Back around 2000-2010 it was a real betting revolution, before Black sold out. Was a License to print money in the early days, like having a money tree in the garden
    You are right there, it certainly was. I was making enough to live on and more. These days have limited what I do there and pay the premium charge albeit the 20% one. Still go there for certain events that are worthwhile. They have really decimated their own model though and a lack of liquidity is starting to show. It was good while it lasted. 2005-2007 would have been "peak BF" for me and since then the decline has been evident.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    You are right there, it certainly was. I was making enough to live on and more. These days have limited what I do there and pay the premium charge albeit the 20% one. Still go there for certain events that are worthwhile. They have really decimated their own model though and a lack of liquidity is starting to show. It was good while it lasted. 2005-2007 would have been "peak BF" for me and since then the decline has been evident.
    Back in the early years I would be up most of the night trading UK horse racing, then moved to cricket/tennis and Rugby trading. Around those years you gave, it was possible to make thousands on single events without even much skill, just a fast feed, the exchange rate was better then too. There was little risk involved other than losing connection when a big trade was open. I used to keep it very quiet as hardly any New Zealanders seemed to know about it, and taking money off UK players on NZ events was just so easy with about 7 seconds time advantage over the feeds they were seeing. Couldnt lose
    Now all the easy money is gone and it shark versus shark, the other problem was when everyone had internet connected cellphones a fast feed was no longer enough as every man and his dog was at the grounds doing it


    Like you I can no longer be bothered with much except the occasional nz event like test rugby and cricket, but even that not what it was. Made enough money from it during the good years to not have to bother now. It was a pain having to spend all day with a finger hovering ober the mouse button waiting for a wicket to fall, took lots of dedication, these days it not worth the trouble.
    Last edited by ratkin; 15-09-2017 at 04:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    Robertson knows they want CGT on real estate, but says he doesn't know about businesses because they will wait for the report after the election.
    Here it goes for you Grant. Years ago when real estate transactions were subject to stamp duties, the trick for investors was to set up a company to buy a property = and sell the company which was cheaper. And if R.E. is subject to CGT buisinesses and shares will need to be too, to avoid people trading companies - so Grant, don't try and tell us you do not know about CGT on businesses.
    And if the Greens are to be believed they will raise the top tax rate to 40% for those over $150k, raise the trust rate to match it and leave the corporate tax rate as it is but will implement a CGT now.

    Of course, their model assumes no one will do the economically rational thing and legally avoid the taxes and that purchase and sale of investment property will change volumes (interesting that on one hand they want to curb speculation and on the other bank that it won't change behaviour).

    A 12 point rate spread is significant. I only have to see the IRDs published data to see that there have been a statistical anomaly of taxpayers who sit just beneath the cusp of the top tier and that moves with every change to the eligibility of the top tier... if that's not evidence of avoidance being widespread then someone needs to head to Specsavers.

    Small tax differentials between tiers tends to see less incentives to be bothered with avoidance. And encouraging the well off with such a big points spread is like putting out a fire with a bottle of meths... it generally won't work and could blow up in your hands!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Back in the early years I would be up most of the night trading UK horse racing, then moved to cricket/tennis and Rugby trading. Around those years you gave, it was possible to make thousands on single events without even much skill, just a fast feed, the exchange rate was better then too. There was little risk involved other than losing connection when a big trade was open. I used to keep it very quiet as hardly any New Zealanders seemed to know about it, and taking money off UK players on NZ events was just so easy with about 7 seconds time advantage over the feeds they were seeing. Couldnt lose
    Now all the easy money is gone and it shark versus shark, the other problem was when everyone had internet connected cellphones a fast feed was no longer enough as every man and his dog was at the grounds doing it


    Like you I can no longer be bothered with much except the occasional nz event like test rugby and cricket, but even that not what it was. Made enough money from it during the good years to not have to bother now. It was a pain having to spend all day with a finger hovering ober the mouse button waiting for a wicket to fall, took lots of dedication, these days it not worth the trouble.
    I can find myself in this. I think you and I probably worked in parallel in NZ without knowing it. The waiting for a wicket to fall was excruciating. Yes the 7 second delay helped and then I would listen to analogue radio for the quickest feed. Made thousands doing this myself. The rugby (super variety) was a huge cash cow for me too but the cricket was my bread and butter. Funny you kept it on the down low in NZ, I did exactly the same thing. Anecdotally I once hoovered up about $3000 on the fall of the 9th wicket in a test match on the runs line market. That is how crazy it was. Now you are right, its shark v shark and sometimes I wonder if there are others out there with quicker pics ect.

    So now its become more of a hobby and I trade on select events. In the tennis (the grand slams only) I find I can make a good $4k or more so its worth trading and I love the game which helps. For the rest the long nights and sore shoulders hands are no longer what is important in life.

    As far as the election goes, I see that the odds have remained static and Labour are the slight favourite. Saturday will tell.

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    My only foray into online betting (Centrebet) was election 2005. I was convinced that the Nat's would shoe-in, so much so that I doubled my bet. Friday evening I get a call from credit card checking on 2 large debits as they thought there may have been an error. Thank god I answered the phone, cover would have been blown if wife had taken call. Sat evening feeling confident, ready to tell wifey of my rather large windfall......a n d the Sth Auckland votes start comin in......and that is why I have not placed a bet since!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ari View Post
    My only foray into online betting (Centrebet) was election 2005. I was convinced that the Nat's would shoe-in, so much so that I doubled my bet. Friday evening I get a call from credit card checking on 2 large debits as they thought there may have been an error. Thank god I answered the phone, cover would have been blown if wife had taken call. Sat evening feeling confident, ready to tell wifey of my rather large windfall......a n d the Sth Auckland votes start comin in......and
    thats when the fight started.

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