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Thread: Wheres Winston?

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    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Default Wheres Winston?

    We've all been a bit quiet on NZ First. Which begs the question - where has Winston been this time around. Missing in action I fear.

    He holds a traditional National seat and I think National voters will see the threat from labour and fully back their candidate rather than Winston who only came in after a protest by-election vote. So I reckon he'll lose Northland.

    Given the Labour / National battle I think he'll also lose party support to those two parties. Also TOP, as an alternative vote may suck up a few more.

    His NZ Super explanations lack credibility. And a good number of his core constituency will have passed away over the past 3 years.

    Hes' pretty silent on any issue and even the traditional last week media drama is missing this time around. So I reckon there is also a good chance he won't get over the 5% mark. Shame - I quite like Ron Mark

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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    We've all been a bit quiet on NZ First. Which begs the question - where has Winston been this time around. Missing in action I fear.

    He holds a traditional National seat and I think National voters will see the threat from labour and fully back their candidate rather than Winston who only came in after a protest by-election vote. So I reckon he'll lose Northland.

    Given the Labour / National battle I think he'll also lose party support to those two parties. Also TOP, as an alternative vote may suck up a few more.

    His NZ Super explanations lack credibility. And a good number of his core constituency will have passed away over the past 3 years.

    Hes' pretty silent on any issue and even the traditional last week media drama is missing this time around. So I reckon there is also a good chance he won't get over the 5% mark. Shame - I quite like Ron Mark
    They'll get back. I can't see them below 5%. Pity. Same with The Kermit party.

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    I agree MM. Winston has run a lacklustre campaign. The new Labour leader created enough excitement for many left leaning NZF voters to go back home to Labour. This has been showing up in the polls since she then. The right leaning voters that have and were thinking about voting NZF, are now getting seriously worried at the thought of a Labour-Green Government possibly aided by Winston, so are heading back to National. I think there is a real possibility that NZF will not make it into Parliament. What is more, I think the same can easily happen to The Greens. Now that would make for an interesting outcome !

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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    I agree MM. Winston has run a lacklustre campaign. The new Labour leader created enough excitement for many left leaning NZF voters to go back home to Labour. This has been showing up in the polls since she then. The right leaning voters that have and were thinking about voting NZF, are now getting seriously worried at the thought of a Labour-Green Government possibly aided by Winston, so are heading back to National. I think there is a real possibility that NZF will not make it into Parliament. What is more, I think the same can easily happen to The Greens. Now that would make for an interesting outcome !
    Yes, it would. But if Kermits make it and Winston First doesn't - that's a Labour govt. Shudder .................!

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    Yes, it would. But if Kermits make it and Winston First doesn't - that's a Labour govt. Shudder .................!
    Not necessarily. Could also mean National being able to Govern on their own. The only minor parties that I'd say are sure to get in are ACT with 1-2 and Maori party 1-3.
    Last edited by iceman; 21-09-2017 at 01:03 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    They'll get back. I can't see them below 5%. Pity. Same with The Kermit party.
    I cant see the Greens supporting their 8% poll. It would be impossible for Labour to get enough Party vote to account for 8% - and I think Labour is still polling pretty strongly. Labour is going to do a pretty good job of wealth re-distribution under the guise of "environment" so that will suck up a few Green votes and Labour plans to deal to employers so that also will appeal to Greens who are a little work shy. So I reckon Greens will be scraping the bottom of their constituency barrel and may struggle to get over 5%

    I reckon Winston has lost the plot - I bet he doesnt even know how many bottom lines he has himself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post

    I reckon Winston has lost the plot - I bet he doesnt even know how many bottom lines he has himself.
    symptons of a medical condition that is
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

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    And this is exactly why I think The Greens are at a risk of not making it into Parliament http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...-be-more-green

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    Essentially Winston is campaigning hard in Northland. 10 weeks ago you wouldn’t have put NZF and the Greens in danger of not making the 5% threshold but things have changed. If Winston does win in Northland against a reasonably solid National Candidate this time then it won’t be the last drink for him as he won’t have to worry about the threshold. If they end up at effectively 4.99% and without that Nortland seat then he and the party are gone and for Peters that’s likely to be it.

    The Greens aren’t even close to winning an electorate so they don’t have the luxury of that buffer whereas if Peters does win he will also bring 6 to 7 MPs with him depending on total party vote which might be crucial come Sunday morning.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rep View Post
    Essentially Winston is campaigning hard in Northland. 10 weeks ago you wouldn’t have put NZF and the Greens in danger of not making the 5% threshold but things have changed. If Winston does win in Northland against a reasonably solid National Candidate this time then it won’t be the last drink for him as he won’t have to worry about the threshold. If they end up at effectively 4.99% and without that Nortland seat then he and the party are gone and for Peters that’s likely to be it.

    The Greens aren’t even close to winning an electorate so they don’t have the luxury of that buffer whereas if Peters does win he will also bring 6 to 7 MPs with him depending on total party vote which might be crucial come Sunday morning.
    I think the fact that Winston drove up to Northland yesterday to devote the last 36 hours of campaigning there is him admitting NZF is at a real risk of not making the 5%. Here's hoping !!

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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    I think the fact that Winston drove up to Northland yesterday to devote the last 36 hours of campaigning there is him admitting NZF is at a real risk of not making the 5%. Here's hoping !!
    That would leave National without a coaltion partner. No thanks. I'd rather see National with silly old Winston than Labour - greens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    That would leave National without a coaltion partner. No thanks. I'd rather see National with silly old Winston than Labour - greens.
    Possibly FP. But should National get 54-56 seats themselves and neither Green or NZF make 5%, National could Govern on their own. A distant possibility but one that I rather desire !

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    That would leave National without a coaltion partner. No thanks. I'd rather see National with silly old Winston than Labour - greens.
    There must be an on-line calculator thing somewhere that shows where seats go if parties votes gets wasted by not hitting 5% or getting a MP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    There must be an on-line calculator thing somewhere that shows where seats go if parties votes gets wasted by not hitting 5% or getting a MP.
    The votes go into the rubbish bin and aare totally discarded, and that gives a new total of votes cast - which is then allocated according to the % of counted votes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    There must be an on-line calculator thing somewhere that shows where seats go if parties votes gets wasted by not hitting 5% or getting a MP.
    They become invalid so in theory they are proportionally split to those that make it to Parliament
    Last edited by iceman; 22-09-2017 at 08:03 AM. Reason: addition

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