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  1. #1
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Default Election Watch - Pivotal Seats

    A good perspective on which key seats will determine who becomes the government come October 2023.

    The Maori & Pacifica votes will continue to go to Labour whether they vote Green, Maori Party or Labour - that’s a given.

    The professional, farming and business votes will continue to go to National, whether they vote ACT or National.

    What will determine the outcome of this election will be the white middle class female votes. There’s no Ardern for them to embrace and vote for this time but there’s plenty of basic issues for them to vote against Labour :

    Education crisis
    Healthcare crisis
    Law & order breakdown
    Racial divisions
    Cost of Living crisis
    Plenty more

    So will they decide enough is enough or have they given up and are happy to embrace the Aussie welcome hug for their & their children’s future?

    It’s that simple imo.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/1323...ch-these-seats

  2. #2
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Betfair has Nats at $1.38 to be next govt, Labour at $2.50

    I got Labour at $3.80 a few months ago …pleased with that …pretty certain of winning I reckon
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #3
    Dilettante
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    Not sure what you want on this thread Balance but I'm going to predict that ACT's Brooke van Welden will beat National's Simon O'Connor in Tamaki, showing a "leak" from National to ACT this year.

    I also predict that in my Nelson electorate National's Blair Cameron will roll incumbent and useless Labour MP Rachel Boyack
    Last edited by iceman; 18-06-2023 at 08:58 AM.

  4. #4
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Not sure what you want on this thread Balance but I'm going to predict that ACT's Brooke van Welden will beat National's Simon O'Connor in Tamaki, showing a "leak" from National to ACT this year.

    I also predict that in my Nelson electorate National's Blair Cameron will roll incumbent and useless Labour MP Rachel Boyack
    I thought there should be a separate thread to track the pivotal seats as NZ heads towards the election.

    Otherwise, this would get lost in the general threads.

    Your predictions are precisely what will clarify the positioning of the parties as they start their campaigning process.

    Having observed Brooke van Welden’s campaign around my area, I must say I share your sentiment. She is contesting in a truly blue ribbon seat which used to be held by Muldoon and is now held by an accident prone Simon O’Connor. One is dynamic & young while the other is tired and well past his used-by-date.

  5. #5
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    [QUOTE=l

    What will determine the outcome of this election will be the white middle class female votes. There’s no Ardern for them to embrace and vote for this time but there’s plenty of basic issues for them to vote against Labour :
    [/QUOTE]

    That may be a scary prospect.

    Many of those, who are not overly interested in politics due to the shelter provided
    by their men folk, will then vote Green, on the misapprehension they are helping a penguin in Antarctica.
    The complete antithesis of those men folk

  6. #6
    Guru
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    Ilam to TOP (they're hoping for a way to circumvent the 5% threshold).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDZUlEWeOj4

    Interview with the current leader;
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-43odFTbYOU&t=669s

  7. #7
    Guru justakiwi's Avatar
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    You are a misogynistic, sexist idiot, just like your unbalanced buddy.

    I genuinely pity the women in your lives. They deserve so much better.

    Quote Originally Posted by Getty View Post
    That may be a scary prospect.

    Many of those, who are not overly interested in politics due to the shelter provided
    by their men folk, will then vote Green, on the misapprehension they are helping a penguin in Antarctica.
    The complete antithesis of those men folk

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by justakiwi View Post
    You are a misogynistic, sexist idiot, just like your unbalanced buddy.

    I genuinely pity the women in your lives. They deserve so much better.
    Very predictable coming from you JAK.

    Marama looks forward to your vote.

    I'm glad you enjoy my posts so much, you have taken me off ignore.
    Isn't it nice to have an alpha male you can rely on?
    Last edited by Getty; 18-06-2023 at 01:20 PM.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Getty View Post
    That may be a scary prospect.

    Many of those, who are not overly interested in politics due to the shelter provided
    by their men folk, will then vote Green, on the misapprehension they are helping a penguin in Antarctica.
    The complete antithesis of those men folk
    At least some of them will be voting Green because their men folk (nobly providing for them as is their duty and responsibility) have shown them the reality of living with an 'alpha male' - and they don't like it!

  10. #10
    Guru justakiwi's Avatar
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    You don't know me. You should, if you've ever paid real attention to anything I've ever posted. But you clearly have not.

    The Greens would literally be the last party I would ever vote for (not counting the fruit loop Tamaki party).

    As for taking you off ignore - because I am inherently a nice person, I try to be the bigger person and give people "another chance" from time to time. Happy to put you back on though if that's what you would like.

    Alpha male? Sorry to disappoint you, but you don't meet the requirements - about the only alpha male characteristic you display is self confidence. You do not tick the boxes for the remaining alpha qualities.

    Who are you voting for in August, out of sheer curiosity.

    Quote Originally Posted by Getty View Post
    Very predictable coming from you JAK.

    Marama looks forward to your vote.

    I'm glad you enjoy my posts so much, you have taken me off ignore.
    Isn't it nice to have an alpha male you can rely on?
    Last edited by justakiwi; 18-06-2023 at 02:09 PM.

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