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  1. #1
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    Default What Govt will we wake up to and when.

    OK, must be time for us to play a game and call it it. Time to pick what government we will actually wake up to (not the one we want) and when.

    I'll get the ball rolling: Thursday 28 September. And it will be a National, NZ First and ACT coalition. Wild card = Maori PArty but if they are played it will fall into Nationals hand.

    Reason: Labour Greens will still get a big block but not big enough. National will get most seats, NZ First wont work with the Greens. It will be Winston's last election, he'll want to ease into retirement and there will be less grief with national than there will be Labour / Greens. TOP will get close to 5% but not there so votes will be wasted. United Future - gone.

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    Yet another thread by you mm! Haven't got time for games, but labour /greens is my hope. The choice is starkly clear and reducing it too essentials, Honesty over lying, values over ruthlessness, action over words, fresh approach over 9 years of corrupted power , and environment over pollution, we'll being over poverty. Simple choice!

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    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Yet another thread by you mm!
    I know - you would like a quota where everyone got an even share no matter the quality of the content. But there are so many dimensions to elections the discussion gets lost in those great big threads.
    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Haven't got time for games, but labour /greens is my hope.
    But you had time to post here and re-confirm comprehension not top of your skills list. This thread is about the actual government - not the one we hope for. ( I think you have had more than your fair share on that topic)

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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    OK, must be time for us to play a game and call it it. Time to pick what government we will actually wake up to (not the one we want) and when.

    I'll get the ball rolling: Thursday 28 September. And it will be a National, NZ First and ACT coalition. Wild card = Maori PArty but if they are played it will fall into Nationals hand.

    Reason: Labour Greens will still get a big block but not big enough. National will get most seats, NZ First wont work with the Greens. It will be Winston's last election, he'll want to ease into retirement and there will be less grief with national than there will be Labour / Greens. TOP will get close to 5% but not there so votes will be wasted. United Future - gone.
    Yes, I reckon National, NZ First and Act will get there. Although if the numbers allow, Winston will try and block Act from the coalition. Can't see Morgan's mob at anywhere near 5%. Why not start a poll MM?

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    I think it could just be a Lab/Greens/NZF coalition but I am starting to lean to a Nat/NZF coalition. It all depends on what happens tomorrow with the final outcome of votes, turnout etc. The market seems to think that too though, with that possibility now at about 1.50 for the Nat/NZF option and the Labour one at 3.00

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    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    Why not start a poll MM?
    Too many possible permutations.

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    I think the most likely scenario is National/NZF but without ACT. I can't see Winston wanting Seymour or vice versa, unless they need him for confidence and supply. But if that is the case, then such a 1 majority Government would never last anyway so probably should not be attempted.
    If Nat/NZF Government will be formed it will be a real challenge for English to manage Peters as well as his own caucus. From the outset English needs to ruthlessly cull some senior people like Smith, Collins, Tolley, Upston, Carter, Guy and possibly some others. Then appoint Deputies with Brownlee and Joyce that will take over mid term when they retire. Bennett, Kaye, Adams, Bridges, Goldsmith, Ross and some others should become the senior faces of National for the 2020 election !!
    Last edited by iceman; 22-09-2017 at 08:05 AM.

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    And then, the big question --- what if he loses?

    Nikki Kaye, Bill English and Mary English in Auckland's Britomart

    There has been a quiet debate going on among MPs about this possibility as the campaign has unfolded.
    As much as there is a consensus audible to outside ears, it would appear that any thought of a Bennett-Joyce leadership has lost support.
    Amy Adams and Simon Bridges would seem a more likely combination but rapidly coming down the straight is Education Minister, Nikki Kaye, who produced the one genuinely innovative bit of policy during National's campaign with her proposal to make a foreign language compulsory in primary schools.
    And of course, there is Judith Collins who has been able to demonstrate through the Marsden Point fuel crisis what is often forgotten about her; that she is a highly competent Minister.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Too many possible permutations.
    Yeah, but there's no shortage of cyber space.

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    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    And then, the big question --- what if he loses?
    r.
    Heres an original idea - how about starting your own thread on that question. I cant find any pictures that might help you understand the title of this thread.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    I think the most likely scenario is National/NZF but without ACT. I can't see Winston wanting Seymour or vice versa,
    Winston may have a tough (Hobsons?) choice - working with the Greens or ACT

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    Really hard to pick. Polls are close and its hard to know which way they bias. They ring land lines for some, so national may be biased on the sampling, but Labour gets the lions share of young voters, who may answer a poll but then don't go and vote.

    There is a decent chance NZF doesn't make 5% and then i think Labour+Greens+? will be in. If NZF makes the 5% Nats are currently looking more likely based on the current polling and betting odds. But if brexit and the U.S. taught us anything it is that polls and gambling odds are often wrong.

    I'm going to cop out and call it a 50/50 although i am Hoping for a Labour/Green government. I will be surprised if there is a clear winner tomorrow, i think we should all be prepared for a long drawn out saga of minor parties haggling :-/ Either way will be glad to have less politics in my face once it is finally decided :-)

    A big thanks to everyone on this forum. I have never found anywhere to be so cordial when it comes to discussing political beliefs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam H View Post
    Really hard to pick. Polls are close and its hard to know which way they bias. They ring land lines for some, so national may be biased on the sampling, but Labour gets the lions share of young voters, who may answer a poll but then don't go and vote.

    There is a decent chance NZF doesn't make 5% and then i think Labour+Greens+? will be in. If NZF makes the 5% Nats are currently looking more likely based on the current polling and betting odds. But if brexit and the U.S. taught us anything it is that polls and gambling odds are often wrong.

    I'm going to cop out and call it a 50/50 although i am Hoping for a Labour/Green government. I will be surprised if there is a clear winner tomorrow, i think we should all be prepared for a long drawn out saga of minor parties haggling :-/ Either way will be glad to have less politics in my face once it is finally decided :-)

    A big thanks to everyone on this forum. I have never found anywhere to be so cordial when it comes to discussing political beliefs.
    Guess you haven't come across joshuatree or tim23 yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Winston may have a tough (Hobsons?) choice - working with the Greens or ACT
    Having just reprimanded JT for being of topic are you not doing the same?

    westerly

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    Guess you haven't come across joshuatree or tim23 yet.
    Haha i saw them i was just being positive. And to be fair they are not nearly as bad as what is found elsewhere, and the discussion as a whole is pretty good

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