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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    From a personal moral value viewpoint, in hoping either National alone or with NZF, Labour and the Greens are morally bankrupt according to my values.
    So your values value lying to the country. Have you seen joyce bennett and bill are already demoted if/when national lose. looks like some in national coming through have values.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by craic View Post
    I was reasonably sure that Labour would win for no other reason than the NZ practice of changing governments every three terms but Labour's lack of leadership problems caused me to think twice. JA changed all that for a time but she arrived too early if any thing. She has ridden the "I" horse a bit too much with rarely a "we" or an "us" anywhere to be heard. Without her the party is still a headless chicken and I suspect many voters want more than a shiny bright leader. I will pick a National government with a small but clear majority. Bill English is far closer to the good keen bloke image than I gave him credit for and I suspect that he has gained a lot of support during the campaign.

    He is indeed a good keen corrupt bloke; This has been the most corrupt fake news election we have ever had.Trump will be ringing him up to say "fake it more bill next time".

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    So your values value lying to the country. Have you seen joyce bennett and bill are already demoted if/when national lose. looks like some in national coming through have values.
    I'm talking about values like Abortion/Marriage/Euthanasia etc, nuff said

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    He is indeed a good keen corrupt bloke; This has been the most corrupt fake news election we have ever had.Trump will be ringing him up to say "fake it more bill next time".
    Whats with the name calling and insults?

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by craic View Post
    I was reasonably sure that Labour would win for no other reason than the NZ practice of changing governments every three terms but Labour's lack of leadership problems caused me to think twice. JA changed all that for a time but she arrived too early if any thing. She has ridden the "I" horse a bit too much with rarely a "we" or an "us" anywhere to be heard. Without her the party is still a headless chicken and I suspect many voters want more than a shiny bright leader. I will pick a National government with a small but clear majority. Bill English is far closer to the good keen bloke image than I gave him credit for and I suspect that he has gained a lot of support during the campaign.
    Craic

    do you still stand by your prediction that Stuart Nash has no hope of winning again in Napier??

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    I think the most likely scenario is National/NZF but without ACT. I can't see Winston wanting Seymour or vice versa, unless they need him for confidence and supply. But if that is the case, then such a 1 majority Government would never last anyway so probably should not be attempted.Iceman
    If Nat/NZF Government will be formed it will be a real challenge for English to manage Peters as well as his own caucus. From the outset English needs to ruthlessly cull some senior people like Smith, Collins, Tolley, Upston, Carter, Guy and possibly some others. Then appoint Deputies with Brownlee and Joyce that will take over mid term when they retire. Bennett, Kaye, Adams, Bridges, Goldsmith, Ross and some others should become the senior faces of National for the 2020 election !!
    Iceman
    You make some good points. A National NZF government will inevitably have severe internal tensions which will be a challenge to manage. The other iceberg floating in the ocean is the looming severe downturn in the Auckland housing market. The married and overmortgaged will be under extreme financial stress.
    Inevitably they will direct their anger at the government, no matter who is in power.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by craic View Post
    I was reasonably sure that Labour would win for no other reason than the NZ practice of changing governments every three terms but Labour's lack of leadership problems caused me to think twice. JA changed all that for a time but she arrived too early if any thing. She has ridden the "I" horse a bit too much with rarely a "we" or an "us" anywhere to be heard. Without her the party is still a headless chicken and I suspect many voters want more than a shiny bright leader. I will pick a National government with a small but clear majority. Bill English is far closer to the good keen bloke image than I gave him credit for and I suspect that he has gained a lot of support during the campaign.
    Excellent synopsis craic...totally agree....

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Whats with the name calling and insults?
    Facts facts facts. Does your auto editing device remove them?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sgt Pepper View Post
    Craic

    do you still stand by your prediction that Stuart Nash has no hope of winning again in Napier??
    He will win and he will be the next leader of the Labour party.

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    He looks promising in the future as long as he doesn't do an "honest" joyce or english impression. If national lose the election joyce english and bennett are gone and bridges ,adams, kaye and collins are being vetted.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Facts facts facts. Does your auto editing device remove them?
    No I don't really care, call Joyce or Bill anything you like. Just don't complain and moan when darling Taxinda gets a nickname.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    He looks promising in the future as long as he doesn't do an "honest" joyce or english impression. If national lose the election joyce english and bennett are gone and bridges ,adams, kaye and collins are being vetted.
    Stop being silly.

  13. #33
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    National plans post election
    There has been a quiet debate going on among MPs about this possibility as the campaign has unfolded.
    As much as there is a consensus audible to outside ears, it would appear that any thought of a Bennett-Joyce leadership has lost support.
    Amy Adams and Simon Bridges would seem a more likely combination but rapidly coming down the straight is Education Minister, Nikki Kaye, who produced the one genuinely innovative bit of policy during National's campaign with her proposal to make a foreign language compulsory in primary schools.
    And of course, there is Judith Collins who has been able to demonstrate through the Marsden Point fuel crisis what is often forgotten about her; that she is a highly competent Minister.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    Stop being silly.
    Name calling ;id be very very careful if i was you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Name calling ;id be very very careful if i was you.
    I'd go and learn about puctuation and basic grammar if I were you.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    I'd go and learn about puctuation and basic grammar if I were you.
    Probably too much to ask someone to use the subjunctive these days. Is there an emoji for that?

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    No I don't really care, call Joyce or Bill anything you like. Just don't complain and moan when darling Taxinda gets a nickname.
    Is that some accountancy business in your 'hood

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    National plans post election
    There has been a quiet debate going on among MPs about this possibility as the campaign has unfolded.
    As much as there is a consensus audible to outside ears, it would appear that any thought of a Bennett-Joyce leadership has lost support.
    Amy Adams and Simon Bridges would seem a more likely combination but rapidly coming down the straight is Education Minister, Nikki Kaye, who produced the one genuinely innovative bit of policy during National's campaign with her proposal to make a foreign language compulsory in primary schools.
    And of course, there is Judith Collins who has been able to demonstrate through the Marsden Point fuel crisis what is often forgotten about her; that she is a highly competent Minister.
    It'd be helpful if you named your source JT. Is this from a political journo or Labour's PR team?

  19. #39
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    looking good for ;Kelvin
    Seat watch: the Māori electorates

    By Leonie Hayden | Staff Writer
    September 22, 2017

    The campaign for the Māori seats has been defined by drama and intrigue, with noble families protecting ancient fiefdoms and usurpers lurking around every corner like some kind of popular fantasy series.
    As of 19 September, 241,602 people were enrolled on the Māori electoral roll with the 18 – 24 group by far the largest demographic and 70+ the smallest – the inverse of the general electoral roll. It’s almost like Māori have a worldview and values distinct from the default western mindset!
    The contest for the Māori seats has felt George RR Martin-esque at times (minus the incest… presumably), with candidates changing allegiance at the last minute and family members trying to kill usurp each other.
    Currently Labour holds six of the seven seats and has made clear their intention to sit on the throne in all seven kingdoms after Saturday. Will they do it?
    Below, a whistlestop tour of the seats. Note that the poll numbers, while often a useful guide, are even less reliable than most, given the size of the electorates, the time span over which they were surveyed, and the youth-skewed demographics. They’ve proved wrong in the past.
    Te Tai Tokerau

    Having won three elections and one by-election in Te Tai Tokerau, Hone Harawira seemed like an immutable Northland Kauri. But then disastrously he joined forces with German millionaire Kim Dotcom in 2014 and lost his seat to Labour’s Kelvin Davis. While Davis isn’t keen on all the driving he has to do around the electorate he is way out ahead in the poll.
    This time around Harawira has struck a different deal, agreeing not to stand a Mana candidate in any of the other six seats in exchange for the Māori Party putting up no one against him in Te Tai Tokerau. At this stage, it looks like he got the worse end of the bargain.
    I’m sure Godfrey Rudolph is very nice, but this is a two-horse race.
    Reid Research poll for Māori Television:
    Kelvin Davis, Labour 67.4%
    Hone Harawira, Mana 30.3%
    Godfrey Rudolph, Greens *2.3%
    Preferred party:
    Labour 49.7%
    Green 10.3%
    Mana 6.1%

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    looking good for ;Kelvin
    Seat watch: the Māori electorates

    By Leonie Hayden | Staff Writer
    September 22, 2017

    The campaign for the Māori seats has been defined by drama and intrigue, with noble families protecting ancient fiefdoms and usurpers lurking around every corner like some kind of popular fantasy series.
    As of 19 September, 241,602 people were enrolled on the Māori electoral roll with the 18 – 24 group by far the largest demographic and 70+ the smallest – the inverse of the general electoral roll. It’s almost like Māori have a worldview and values distinct from the default western mindset!
    The contest for the Māori seats has felt George RR Martin-esque at times (minus the incest… presumably), with candidates changing allegiance at the last minute and family members trying to kill usurp each other.
    Currently Labour holds six of the seven seats and has made clear their intention to sit on the throne in all seven kingdoms after Saturday. Will they do it?
    Below, a whistlestop tour of the seats. Note that the poll numbers, while often a useful guide, are even less reliable than most, given the size of the electorates, the time span over which they were surveyed, and the youth-skewed demographics. They’ve proved wrong in the past.
    Te Tai Tokerau

    Having won three elections and one by-election in Te Tai Tokerau, Hone Harawira seemed like an immutable Northland Kauri. But then disastrously he joined forces with German millionaire Kim Dotcom in 2014 and lost his seat to Labour’s Kelvin Davis. While Davis isn’t keen on all the driving he has to do around the electorate he is way out ahead in the poll.
    This time around Harawira has struck a different deal, agreeing not to stand a Mana candidate in any of the other six seats in exchange for the Māori Party putting up no one against him in Te Tai Tokerau. At this stage, it looks like he got the worse end of the bargain.
    I’m sure Godfrey Rudolph is very nice, but this is a two-horse race.
    Reid Research poll for Māori Television:
    Kelvin Davis, Labour 67.4%
    Hone Harawira, Mana 30.3%
    Godfrey Rudolph, Greens *2.3%
    Preferred party:
    Labour 49.7%
    Green 10.3%
    Mana 6.1%
    Great. I sure hope Kelvin wins Te Tai Tokerau

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