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  1. #321
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blendy View Post
    I had a big chat to a local who lives at One Tree Point today and they said that they believe the available land is larger than the current POA site. (They are not involved in any of this at all, I just was interested to get some info from the community)
    Thanks Blendy, just wondering whether MMH could become a large property company if there is a move up North but I suppose even if there is an announcement on Thursday I wonder what concrete steps can be taken. A four lane highway as far as Ruakaka will be required. We are only just getting it completed to Warkworth and that took years. Maybe if the next leader of the National party gets a bach in One Tree Point we might see a bit more action. John keys holiday highway is a boon for the North even if it only ends at Omaha beach.

  2. #322
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Thanks Blendy, just wondering whether MMH could become a large property company if there is a move up North but I suppose even if there is an announcement on Thursday I wonder what concrete steps can be taken. A four lane highway as far as Ruakaka will be required. We are only just getting it completed to Warkworth and that took years. Maybe if the next leader of the National party gets a bach in One Tree Point we might see a bit more action. John keys holiday highway is a boon for the North even if it only ends at Omaha beach.
    Yep....it won't be a fast process to get this done. Road and Rail need upgrading. As well as additional space at the port.
    That's why we need to get the plan in place and get cracking now. And not yet another re-port.

  3. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    You need new glasses.

    $500k+ of shares bought today so far on market.

    And unlike others, I always put my money where my words are.

    Do you?
    Not glasses, I just don't know where you would look to see volume. I use ASB Securities so the front page is showing a volume of 74,466 but I have never really taken much notice of this before.

    Can you find volume information on the NZX site?

    Sorry I just saw one lot of about 3,000 on the depth tab and didn't appreciate how many trades have gone through today but looking on there now I see they are trying to entice the buyers higher. I don't doubt you are invested in MMH just wondering if it is you dribbling the shares back out at higher and higher prices.

    You got me interested in MMH but at current metrics I would be buying indeterminate future growth and a currently indeterminate time frame rather than a regular dividend stream. 30 times current earnings is high so I am just trying to work out if you are selling me the dream so you can flog off some expensive shares while I mindlessly speculate on the future.

    POA Operating cashflow 2019 $68,140 mill MMH $10,042mill so only 7 times larger on cashflow. Makes the move sound more doable.

  4. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Not glasses, I just don't know where you would look to see volume. I use ASB Securities so the front page is showing a volume of 74,466 but I have never really taken much notice of this before.

    Can you find volume information on the NZX site?

    Sorry I just saw one lot of about 3,000 on the depth tab and didn't appreciate how many trades have gone through today but looking on there now I see they are trying to entice the buyers higher. I don't doubt you are invested in MMH just wondering if it is you dribbling the shares back out at higher and higher prices.

    You got me interested in MMH but at current metrics I would be buying indeterminate future growth and a currently indeterminate time frame rather than a regular dividend stream. 30 times current earnings is high so I am just trying to work out if you are selling me the dream so you can flog off some expensive shares while I mindlessly speculate on the future.

    POA Operating cashflow 2019 $68,140 mill MMH $10,042mill so only 7 times larger on cashflow. Makes the move sound more doable.
    You can get total volume and $ value on NZX site :

    https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MMH

    If you are referring to me being a ramper, I can tell you that I find the practice of ramping up or down totally despicable and ethically & morally repugnant but more so, when it's done with fake news and deliberate misinformation.

    Happy at anytime to open up my books via my lawyer (that way, both parties stay anonymous but verifiable by the lawyers) for $10,000 bet that I put my money where my words are.
    Last edited by Balance; 10-12-2019 at 04:27 PM.

  5. #325
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    You can get total volume and $ value on NZX site :

    https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MMH

    If you are referring to me being a ramper, I can tell you that I find the practice of ramping up or down totally despicable and ethically & morally repugnant but more so, when it's done with fake news and deliberate misinformation.

    Happy at anytime to open up my books via my lawyer (that way, both parties stay anonymous but verifiable by the lawyers) for $10,000 bet that I put my money where my words are.
    I will pass on the bet thanks but assuming you have already purchased all the MMH shares you can without excessive risk. What price would you calculate per share for MMH and how would you calculate it?
    My dividend discount model is useless in this situation.
    I suppose you could overlay the POA b/sheet and P & L to estimate capital required and eventual profitability but on a per share basis that would be difficult as it would depend on what sort of deal our MMH board can negotiate on our behalf. I am also assuming $50 per share is not based on anything that is clearly definable at this stage.

  6. #326
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    Reading Fran Wilde in the herald this morning, the Thursday announcement sounds like possibly a further report on the commercial viability of the move North. Also the Auckland Regional Council owns the POA do they agree with POA mgmt. that the port should stay. They will ultimately be the ones deciding if a move is on. NRC should want to encourage industry up north but in theory they are protectors of the environment, expanding the port would run counter to their mandate. Although if they are on board it would help no end getting the necessary resource consents to extend the wharves.
    I may have got a bit overexcited with Balances optimism. Thursdays announcement might be a damp squib but it is hard to see a show man like Shane Jones wanting to announce more studies and reports.

    How would you get a four land highway over the Brynderwns. Maybe this is a buy and hold for 10-15years for growth not dividend.

    Actually it is the Auckland Council that owns the Port not the regional council.
    Last edited by Aaron; 11-12-2019 at 07:38 AM. Reason: getting my facts straight

  7. #327
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Reading Fran Wilde in the herald this morning, the Thursday announcement sounds like possibly a further report on the commercial viability of the move North. Also the Auckland Regional Council owns the POA do they agree with POA mgmt. that the port should stay. They will ultimately be the ones deciding if a move is on. NRC should want to encourage industry up north but in theory they are protectors of the environment, expanding the port would run counter to their mandate. Although if they are on board it would help no end getting the necessary resource consents to extend the wharves.
    I may have got a bit overexcited with Balances optimism. Thursdays announcement might be a damp squib but it is hard to see a show man like Shane Jones wanting to announce more studies and reports.

    How would you get a four land highway over the Brynderwns. Maybe this is a buy and hold for 10-15years for growth not dividend.

    Actually it is the Auckland Council that owns the Port not the regional council.
    That new bit of road on the North side of the Brynderwns.is another story. Can't believe they managed to justify doing that, the road that was there prior wasn't bad at all. What a staggering waste of money. The South side is a lot more difficult (impossible ? ) to fix. The solution is a to go around the Brynderwyns to the West. Relatively easy country. That's already under consideration with NZTA as an option I believe. I guess through is also an option if you have really deep pockets.

  8. #328
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I will pass on the bet thanks but assuming you have already purchased all the MMH shares you can without excessive risk. What price would you calculate per share for MMH and how would you calculate it?
    My dividend discount model is useless in this situation.
    I suppose you could overlay the POA b/sheet and P & L to estimate capital required and eventual profitability but on a per share basis that would be difficult as it would depend on what sort of deal our MMH board can negotiate on our behalf. I am also assuming $50 per share is not based on anything that is clearly definable at this stage.
    How long is a piece of string?

    Simplistically, MMH is a strategic play for me and this is best summed up by Scrunch :

    "And for those who are interested, the current MMH book value for its land around the port is... $10 to $20.5/sqm. The annual report states this as $100,000 to $205,000 per ha, but there are of course 10,000 sqm's per ha. The huge area of land MMH owns in the Northland area is how they have a $20.2m BV of land in their accounts despite the low value per sqm. If this land was thought of as quarter acre sections each one would only be valued at $10k to $20k!! The website link below notes they have 1,850,000sqm of land (185ha). If this started to have a land value of even say $100/sqm, the BV of the land increases to $185m which would increase the BV of equity by $4/share. If this land was to shift upwards to the valuation used for ports of Auckland, it would be valued at just under $1b and alone carry a BV/share of $24. A recent article noted $1,100/sqm prime industrial land values around the Mount near port of Tauranga. That price point would put the land at about $50/share.

    That's what a lot of the Business case is about - start using cheap Northland land rather than extremely expensive Auckland CBD land for a port. https://marsdenmaritime.co.nz/land-for-lease/"

  9. #329
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Reading Fran Wilde in the herald this morning, the Thursday announcement sounds like possibly a further report on the commercial viability of the move North. Also the Auckland Regional Council owns the POA do they agree with POA mgmt. that the port should stay. They will ultimately be the ones deciding if a move is on. NRC should want to encourage industry up north but in theory they are protectors of the environment, expanding the port would run counter to their mandate. Although if they are on board it would help no end getting the necessary resource consents to extend the wharves.
    I may have got a bit overexcited with Balances optimism. Thursdays announcement might be a damp squib but it is hard to see a show man like Shane Jones wanting to announce more studies and reports.

    How would you get a four land highway over the Brynderwns. Maybe this is a buy and hold for 10-15years for growth not dividend.

    Actually it is the Auckland Council that owns the Port not the regional council.
    If you want to bring out the worry beads, read this : https://www.politik.co.nz/2019/12/10...save-nz-first/

    MMH is now not a stock for those wanting dividend yield imo - invest in it for your grandchildren as it is going to be a 10 to 30 year story with more than a few bumps along the way.

  10. #330
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    That new bit of road on the North side of the Brynderwns.is another story. Can't believe they managed to justify doing that, the road that was there prior wasn't bad at all. What a staggering waste of money. The South side is a lot more difficult (impossible ? ) to fix. The solution is a to go around the Brynderwyns to the West. Relatively easy country. That's already under consideration with NZTA as an option I believe. I guess through is also an option if you have really deep pockets.
    Go to China and see how they build super highways and fast train network to connect their cities - fast, efficient and straight, through fast flowing wide rivers, deep valleys and high mountains.

    There are 9 high speed trains carrying passengers and freight from Shanghai to Chongqing - 1440 kms or equivalent of Auckland to Dunedin.

    Then, come back to NZ and weep.

    Why can they do it and we cannot?

    But there's hope!

    It starts with shifting POA to Northport.
    Last edited by Balance; 11-12-2019 at 08:59 AM.

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