OCA or MPG

[janner]

31c gap now, and (dare I say it), it looks set to only increase.

Will be very surprised if MPG comes out unscathed from the current building problems.

[trader_jackson]

40+c gap/50% higher than MPG by weeks end for sure, already at 38c

Not even a competiton these days
Not sure it was ever going to be a competition

[Beagle]

Collective wisdom of the forum has shone through brilliantly.
Might start another thread speculating on outcome 12 months hence from this one. Will OCA be double the SP of MPG by mid October 2019?

[minimoke]

OCA will have no real trouble meeting their NPAT forecast for FY18...
However once that report drops, it becomes another ticker in a rather low valuation sector of the market.
OCA has a very FY18 centric pipeline, there is little info on the timeline for FY19 construction and sales commencement.

It will not be given a premium to the market... 13-16 times forward earnings seems to be most likely.

Sept 2017			Sept 2018
RYM - $9.50			$13.48
SUM - $5.19			$7.70
ARV - $1.24			$1.34
OCA - $1.03			$1.18
MET - $6.00			$6.26

Just for comparison purposes I've changed a column and put in today's prices.

[horus1]

Nasty royal Commission in AU will affect all age care stocks NZ and AU.

[minimoke]

Nasty royal Commission in AU will affect all age care stocks NZ and AU.

Might cause them to go up when punters realise how well run they are relative to other offerings.

[t.rexjr]

Happened to notice both these recent listings are trading at exactly the same price this afternoon $1.02.
To the best of my knowledge they're both on pretty similar PE's too with OCA forecasting 8.42 cps so forward PE about 12 and MPG about 10.2 based on 10 cps.

So...one year from now which stock is higher ?

OCA takes it out with reasonable conviction, MPG never really troubling the bookies. The sharetrader massive were on form!

[trader_jackson]

Wow that gap getting bigly today... who voted for MPG again? Must have clicked the wrong button or something

[Beagle]

Wow that gap getting bigly today... who voted for MPG again? Must have clicked the wrong button or something

We need a new poll, will one OCA be worth more or less than 3 times MPG in two years time

[Maverick]

To be fair we didn't know as much about OCA when this poll was taken as what we know now ..... but on its most basic level which is going to win?
A. a company building rentals for well healed senior citizens (which they pay for in full upfront) in a well organized industry and target rich environment.
B. a company in the highly competitive (and chaotic) construction industry offering a basic construction element (glass , no matter how you dress it).

The fact 25 % of pundits picked option B just proves why ordinary schmucks as myself can actually do ok in this game.