OCA or MPG

[trader_jackson]

If the poll had have been about which company has the best management, it would have been interesting, my vote would go to MPG in that case.

You think the management of MPG is better than OCA?
The number of votes against the chairman (alone) would indicate not too many people think highly of MPG's management
Anyhow lets not turn this solely an MPG (or OCA) thread

[Beagle]

OCA will have no real trouble meeting their NPAT forecast for FY18...
However once that report drops, it becomes another ticker in a rather low valuation sector of the market.
OCA has a very FY18 centric pipeline, there is little info on the timeline for FY19 construction and sales commencement.

It will not be given a premium to the market... 13-16 times forward earnings seems to be most likely.

Forward Underlying PE	FY18E	FY19E	Notes to FY19
RYM - $9.50	25x	20x	Pipeline heavily focused on FY19 - Huge pipeline indeed
SUM - $5.19	14.5x	12.8x	Steady pipeline
ARV - $1.24	16.3x	13.7x	Pipeline focused on FY19 - Relying on resale's for FY18
OCA - $1.03	14.1x	13.8x	Relying on resale's for FY19 ( developments in planning and construction stages )
MET - $6.00	17x	15.8x	Steady pipeline

As for MPG, the construction sector has been growing revenues very well, albeit with terrible marginal contraction... the construction cycle is not yet over and their may be some hope left.
MPG could return a 20-50% gain by the end of the year with any sign of strength, whereas maximum returns on OCA from current levels would be 20-30%

Unlikely performer, but a higher potential return in MPG for the next 12 months on the market, far less risk with OCA and a more stable outlook.

Voted for OCA

Nice summary mate. On your numbers the cheapest stock there SUM at 12.8 x FY19's earnings has the highest proven CAGR.

Winner - Was just a bit of light hearted fun mate seeing as they happened to be at exactly the same price yesterday afternoon. Beagles can be silly dog's, when they're bored they play with any toy they can find

[Dust]

So are we going to have to redo this poll now?

[winner69]

MPG doing terrible but the favourite in this race is doing even worse by the looks of it

[Beagle]

MPG doing terrible but the favourite in this race is doing even worse by the looks of it

Both stocks dogged by unfavorable sector sentiment at present.

Crossed my mind to do another silly poll this afternoon. THL and SUM both closed at $4.92. Didn't start one because I can't decide which has better prospects in the year ahead lol. Just as well I have a bob or three on each. Maybe they'll both do really well and I'll get the quinella

[Beagle]

Game back on with these two both closed at 94 cps. SUM and THL more or less in lock step too.

[Beagle]

Game still on both at 97 cents. Spooky how these two are more or less tracking each other yet one listed for ~ half the IPO price of the other.

[trader_jackson]

Game still on both at 97 cents. Spooky how these two are more or less tracking each other yet one listed for ~ half the IPO price of the other.

Even more spooky given one has very sound fundamentals while the other... well not so much.
Maybe OCA is buying glass of MPG and MPG is allowing the highly (some ridiculously so) paid directors and/or managers etc to retire early into an OCA village?

[JeremyALD]

One pays a much better dividend too

[trader_jackson]

Game still on both at 97 cents. Spooky how these two are more or less tracking each other yet one listed for ~ half the IPO price of the other.

Just over a month later and how things have changed... one has gone north, the other south