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  1. #1401
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I always found this a fascinating chart ......trend seems to have continued
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    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #1402
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Its time we moved on from "owning the quarter acre pavlova paradise" mentality. It was quaint. But in this modern age with expanding populations and strain on resources it should no longer apply. Time to have honest conversations on renting and security of tenure

  3. #1403
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Its time we moved on from "owning the quarter acre pavlova paradise" mentality. It was quaint. But in this modern age with expanding populations and strain on resources it should no longer apply. Time to have honest conversations on renting and security of tenure
    Agree. A countries home ownership rate is not a measure of its success or of the benefits of living there.

    Switzerland has a home ownership rate of 43.4%
    Germany 51.9%
    New Zealand 64.8%
    India 86.6%
    China 90%
    Romania has a home ownership rate of 96.4%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ownership_rate

    In what countries would you rather live?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #1404
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    You are being obtuse. The issue being discussed is productivity. The cost of producing the widgets has gone up. (You do under stand that government doesnt have a fairy powered money generator - the $100 paid has to come from somewhere)

    One of the reasons productivity is so **** is that wages haven't grown at a decent rate, so less incentive for companies to upskill and automate when they can just throw another subsidised WFF worker at the job. And of course the ridiculous amount of "investment" that has gone into non-productive property trading.

  5. #1405
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vagabond47 View Post
    One of the reasons productivity is so **** is that wages haven't grown at a decent rate, so less incentive for companies to upskill and automate when they can just throw another subsidised WFF worker at the job. And of course the ridiculous amount of "investment" that has gone into non-productive property trading.
    One of the unintended consequences of automations is downskilling. My two widgets makers might have really good manual widget making skills. And they are being paid a fair wage for a fair amount of productivity - we know that because we have agreed the pay so that is fair.

    If wages go up employers will look to automation (or offshore). So what I could do is look at a Widget Making machine. Say I find one that can make 1,000 widgets a week. Now I don't need two skilled Widget Workers. I just need Widget Making Button Pusher worker. Not a lot of skill required for that. So that person is going to going to get paid less.

    (Lets not divert from the productivity discussion - but just be aware that profits on trading attracts tax. So can be deemed productive)

  6. #1406
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Just so you know, we didn't ask for earthquakes. If we had a choice we would have said "don't come here" (and in answer to your question a goodly dollop has come from insurance companies, local rate payers, and insurance policy holders through their excesses))
    Even a great deal of the Government EQ expenditure was covered by the crown having taken out insurance. I recall the net amount spent by the Government after additional GST from private insurance claims and income tax from build activity was just a few billion...just another minor Auckland highway extension....

    Lets be honest, as someone who has made large capital gain out of Auckland property and who owns a house there..the social cost in Auckland should be funded in part by those that made the gains....yet Auckland is a classic case of privatise the gain and socialise the losses...

  7. #1407
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Its time we moved on from "owning the quarter acre pavlova paradise" mentality. It was quaint. But in this modern age with expanding populations and strain on resources it should no longer apply. Time to have honest conversations on renting and security of tenure
    Just like your willing worker and willing employer, there can be a willing landlord and a willing renter. Nothing to stop them agreeing a fixed term contract for 5 years, 20 years, whatever, and including a rent schedule. Given that landlords love good tenants, and many stay for years anyway, that honest conversation should ask why there are not more long fixed term contracts.

    I think it was Harcourts in Auckland that said the average tenure of the tenancies they manage is under 2 years. Don't think they split our how many were initiated by which party, but my experience in Wellington city and fringe is that termination is mainly initiated by the tenant.

    In any case, minimoke, your suggested conversation is about to begin officially. It has been announced that tenant protections and security of tenure are key to an upcoming review of the Residential Tenancies Act.

    There will be consultation, and my experience of such consultation is that advocacy groups will be front and centre. I don't suppose many of those groups will have sensible data on the impacts of rents increasing and vacancies falling. Plenty of anecdata though.

  8. #1408
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    One of the unintended consequences of automations is downskilling. My two widgets makers might have really good manual widget making skills. And they are being paid a fair wage for a fair amount of productivity - we know that because we have agreed the pay so that is fair.

    If wages go up employers will look to automation (or offshore). So what I could do is look at a Widget Making machine. Say I find one that can make 1,000 widgets a week. Now I don't need two skilled Widget Workers. I just need Widget Making Button Pusher worker. Not a lot of skill required for that. So that person is going to going to get paid less.

    (Lets not divert from the productivity discussion - but just be aware that profits on trading attracts tax. So can be deemed productive)
    If automation can replace them, then they generally aren't that skilled, common automation replaces dull repetitive tasks with automated ones. And you also forget to mention you need to retrain (or replace) one of widget makers to be a machine operator/setter, and your output volume and quality will also go up a large amount. And then yo will also need someone to service/repair the new wizz bang automation as required, who will no doubt be a contractor, but also highly skilled. Your arguments are nonsense.

  9. #1409
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vagabond47 View Post
    If automation can replace them, then they generally aren't that skilled, common automation replaces dull repetitive tasks with automated ones. And you also forget to mention you need to retrain (or replace) one of widget makers to be a machine operator/setter, and your output volume and quality will also go up a large amount. And then yo will also need someone to service/repair the new wizz bang automation as required, who will no doubt be a contractor, but also highly skilled. Your arguments are nonsense.
    Not so nonsensical if the new machine makes 10,000+ widgets a week. Which is quite likely.

  10. #1410
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vagabond47 View Post
    If automation can replace them, then they generally aren't that skilled, common automation replaces dull repetitive tasks with automated ones. .
    I old enough to remember the Typing Pool. Skilled operators and secretaries with shorthand. All gone the way of dinosaurs now. Speech recognition and word processing means a person can do all that work themselves. Applies in all sorts of jobs and all sorts of industries: data entry keyers, Librarians, Accounts people, tax people, cargo and freight handlers - all on the list of being taken over by automation. Eve lawyers today - there an app. You just put in the evidence details and it will come up with a probable judgement.

    Its not the dull repetitive task jobs that are going to go. Its those jobs with "well-definedprocedures that can easily be performed by sophisticated algorithms". An interesting research paper here: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/do...Employment.pdf

    Or go straight to the summary "Our model predicts that most workers in transportation and logistics occupations,together with the bulk of office and administrative support workers, andlabour in production occupations, are at risk".

    The only thing slowing transition into this automated world is current fairly negotiated wages. Start accelerating the process by dictating higher wages and we'll see people losing their jobs sooner

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