sharetrader
Page 86 of 86 FirstFirst ... 36768283848586
Results 1,276 to 1,286 of 1286
  1. #1276
    Update Ready To Install
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Floating Anchor Shoals
    Posts
    6,429

    Default

    If you want to be informed listen to the podcast, if not dont.

  2. #1277
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Nelson
    Posts
    2,461

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Helen might have done OK early stages but NZ was in recession late 2007 early 2008 ......during Labourís term and pre GFC.
    And burdened future Governments with crazy and hugely expensive middle class welfare schemes like WFF and interest free student loans, that were politically desperate measures to try to hold onto power, knowing it would be politically suicidal to try to remove. People like freebies and we the taxpayers pay for them. The Coalition Government has started down the same track and that may have something to do with lack of confidence by those that have to pay for it all.

    Thankfully this is likely to be a one term Government arrangement https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/9...in-party-jason

  3. #1278
    An awesome cool cat winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    20,309

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    If you want to be informed listen to the podcast, if not dont.

    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    That quote re GDP numbers under Labour / National are a bit misleading (mischieviously so?) as they have lumbered the Labour generated recession numbers into Nationals tenure. The NZ economy did grow strongly in the early 2000's but it was driven more by the RBNZ creating a boom rather than any political policies .....and we suffered the consequences in 2006-2008 with several rate increases (a bust) leading to that recession

    Maybe business confidence polls have some political bias but I doubt not to the degree some make out. I do the ANZ one for a small business I'm involved in and until recently the NZIER one for a corporate and answer as to where I genuinely think things are heading (maybe swayed by all the crap the media put out? maybe not).

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    Attached Images Attached Images
    The bullish case is always most compelling on the highs.

  4. #1279
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    3,726

    Default

    Cheers winner, outstanding post. Less emotion and more facts. Where is the reputation button when you need it?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #1280
    An awesome cool cat winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    20,309

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Cheers winner, outstanding post. Less emotion and more facts. Where is the reputation button when you need it?
    Itís the star shaped symbol at the bottom left of the post. Give it a go ...please

    Iíve given you one
    The bullish case is always most compelling on the highs.

  6. #1281
    Update Ready To Install
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Floating Anchor Shoals
    Posts
    6,429

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    That quote re GDP numbers under Labour / National are a bit misleading (mischieviously so?) as they have lumbered the Labour generated recession numbers into Nationals tenure. The NZ economy did grow strongly in the early 2000's but it was driven more by the RBNZ creating a boom rather than any political policies .....and we suffered the consequences in 2006-2008 with several rate increases (a bust) leading to that recession

    Maybe business confidence polls have some political bias but I doubt not to the degree some make out. I do the ANZ one for a small business I'm involved in and until recently the NZIER one for a corporate and answer as to where I genuinely think things are heading (maybe swayed by all the crap the media put out? maybe not).

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    Good stuff W69. Yes i agree with your 2nd line about that hazard..
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 09-07-2018 at 02:23 PM.

  7. #1282
    A Fool greater fool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    28

    Default


    Here's another GDP/Confidence chart. This from ANZ bank, you can read the commentary around it here;
    https://www.anz.co.nz/resources/c/c/...df?MOD=AJPERES

    Looking at the chart two things which surprised me ( if I read it correctly);

    a) Confidence is generally pessimistic, and
    b) Seems to be a lagging indicator.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  8. #1283
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Hamilton NZ
    Posts
    6,092

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    That quote re GDP numbers under Labour / National are a bit misleading (mischieviously so?) as they have lumbered the Labour generated recession numbers into Nationals tenure. The NZ economy did grow strongly in the early 2000's but it was driven more by the RBNZ creating a boom rather than any political policies .....and we suffered the consequences in 2006-2008 with several rate increases (a bust) leading to that recession

    Maybe business confidence polls have some political bias but I doubt not to the degree some make out. I do the ANZ one for a small business I'm involved in and until recently the NZIER one for a corporate and answer as to where I genuinely think things are heading (maybe swayed by all the crap the media put out? maybe not).

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    W69, how exactly did you come to the conclusion that Labour's policies led to a recession in 2007-2008? Wikipedia shows that the GFC's first indicator was in August 2007, and the Dow-Jones hit a peak in October 2007.

    The first notable event signaling a possible financial crisis occurred in the United Kingdom on August 9, 2007, when BNP Paribas, citing "a complete evaporation of liquidity", blocked withdrawals from three hedge funds. The significance of this event was not immediately recognized but soon led to a panic as investors and savers attempted to liquidate assets deposited in highly leveraged financial institutions.[22]

    The International Monetary Fund estimated that large US and European banks lost more than $1 trillion on toxic assets and from bad loans from January 2007 to September 2009. These losses are expected to top $2.8 trillion from 2007 to 2010. US bank losses were forecast to hit $1 trillion and European bank losses will reach $1.6 trillion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in 2009 that US banks were about 60% through their losses, but British and eurozone banks only 40%.[207]
    One of the first victims was Northern Rock, a medium-sized British bank.[208] The highly leveraged nature of its business led the bank to request security from the Bank of England. This in turn led to investor panic and a bank run[209] in mid-September 2007. Calls by Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesman Vince Cable to nationalise the institution were initially ignored; in February 2008, however, the British government (having failed to find a private sector buyer) relented, and the bank was taken into public hands. Northern Rock's problems proved to be an early indication of the troubles that would soon befall other banks and financial institutions.
    I also note a conservative bias in the business activity outlooks. While the opinions are about 50-50 balanced around zero, the GDP growth rarely drops below 0%. However as these collective opinions do appear to be leading the actual GDP growth chart, it's also possible that there is an element of it being a driving force, but not always a positive force.

  9. #1284
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Nelson
    Posts
    2,461

    Default

    Proof (as if we needed it) that NZ voters are not really ready for radical policy changes, for better or for worse https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12085868
    Last edited by iceman; 10-07-2018 at 07:09 AM.

  10. #1285
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    609

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    "As noted in our analysis of the ANZís monthly release, there is a downward bias to business sentiment when Labour are in power as businesses worry about new regulations,the lack of business sector familiarity of the MPs,
    the eventual loss of fiscal bowel control, infighting by ideology-
    driven people, and this time around the fragile nature of the coalition and secret deals not yet revealed to the public.
    Arrogance and incompetence basically.
    This means we have to be careful not to over extrapolate these results into a
    dystopic economic outlook."

    Quote from Alexanders weekly over view. Seems to be slightly (?} biased to me but not unexpected given he works for a bank.
    The part I do agree with (which received a mention on the AIR NZ thread) was synthetic meat and milk will in the not so distant future have a significant effect on the NZ economy.

    westerly

  11. #1286
    An awesome cool cat winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    20,309

    Default

    I always that it intriguing and somewhat ironic that in the early stages of the economic boom in the early days of Labourís last term in the 2000s net migration went from a 10,000 outflow to a 40,000 inflow......50,000 net change in migration over a few years
    The bullish case is always most compelling on the highs.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •