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  1. #1276
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    If you want to be informed listen to the podcast, if not dont.

    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    That quote re GDP numbers under Labour / National are a bit misleading (mischieviously so?) as they have lumbered the Labour generated recession numbers into Nationals tenure. The NZ economy did grow strongly in the early 2000's but it was driven more by the RBNZ creating a boom rather than any political policies .....and we suffered the consequences in 2006-2008 with several rate increases (a bust) leading to that recession

    Maybe business confidence polls have some political bias but I doubt not to the degree some make out. I do the ANZ one for a small business I'm involved in and until recently the NZIER one for a corporate and answer as to where I genuinely think things are heading (maybe swayed by all the crap the media put out? maybe not).

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
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  2. #1277
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Cheers winner, outstanding post. Less emotion and more facts. Where is the reputation button when you need it?
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  3. #1278
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Cheers winner, outstanding post. Less emotion and more facts. Where is the reputation button when you need it?
    Its the star shaped symbol at the bottom left of the post. Give it a go ...please

    Ive given you one
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  4. #1279
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    That quote re GDP numbers under Labour / National are a bit misleading (mischieviously so?) as they have lumbered the Labour generated recession numbers into Nationals tenure. The NZ economy did grow strongly in the early 2000's but it was driven more by the RBNZ creating a boom rather than any political policies .....and we suffered the consequences in 2006-2008 with several rate increases (a bust) leading to that recession

    Maybe business confidence polls have some political bias but I doubt not to the degree some make out. I do the ANZ one for a small business I'm involved in and until recently the NZIER one for a corporate and answer as to where I genuinely think things are heading (maybe swayed by all the crap the media put out? maybe not).

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    Good stuff W69. Yes i agree with your 2nd line about that hazard..
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 09-07-2018 at 01:23 PM.

  5. #1280
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    That quote re GDP numbers under Labour / National are a bit misleading (mischieviously so?) as they have lumbered the Labour generated recession numbers into Nationals tenure. The NZ economy did grow strongly in the early 2000's but it was driven more by the RBNZ creating a boom rather than any political policies .....and we suffered the consequences in 2006-2008 with several rate increases (a bust) leading to that recession

    Maybe business confidence polls have some political bias but I doubt not to the degree some make out. I do the ANZ one for a small business I'm involved in and until recently the NZIER one for a corporate and answer as to where I genuinely think things are heading (maybe swayed by all the crap the media put out? maybe not).

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    W69, how exactly did you come to the conclusion that Labour's policies led to a recession in 2007-2008? Wikipedia shows that the GFC's first indicator was in August 2007, and the Dow-Jones hit a peak in October 2007.

    The first notable event signaling a possible financial crisis occurred in the United Kingdom on August 9, 2007, when BNP Paribas, citing "a complete evaporation of liquidity", blocked withdrawals from three hedge funds. The significance of this event was not immediately recognized but soon led to a panic as investors and savers attempted to liquidate assets deposited in highly leveraged financial institutions.[22]

    The International Monetary Fund estimated that large US and European banks lost more than $1 trillion on toxic assets and from bad loans from January 2007 to September 2009. These losses are expected to top $2.8 trillion from 2007 to 2010. US bank losses were forecast to hit $1 trillion and European bank losses will reach $1.6 trillion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in 2009 that US banks were about 60% through their losses, but British and eurozone banks only 40%.[207]
    One of the first victims was Northern Rock, a medium-sized British bank.[208] The highly leveraged nature of its business led the bank to request security from the Bank of England. This in turn led to investor panic and a bank run[209] in mid-September 2007. Calls by Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesman Vince Cable to nationalise the institution were initially ignored; in February 2008, however, the British government (having failed to find a private sector buyer) relented, and the bank was taken into public hands. Northern Rock's problems proved to be an early indication of the troubles that would soon befall other banks and financial institutions.
    I also note a conservative bias in the business activity outlooks. While the opinions are about 50-50 balanced around zero, the GDP growth rarely drops below 0%. However as these collective opinions do appear to be leading the actual GDP growth chart, it's also possible that there is an element of it being a driving force, but not always a positive force.

  6. #1281
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    Proof (as if we needed it) that NZ voters are not really ready for radical policy changes, for better or for worse https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12085868
    Last edited by iceman; 10-07-2018 at 06:09 AM.

  7. #1282
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    "As noted in our analysis of the ANZs monthly release, there is a downward bias to business sentiment when Labour are in power as businesses worry about new regulations,the lack of business sector familiarity of the MPs,
    the eventual loss of fiscal bowel control, infighting by ideology-
    driven people, and this time around the fragile nature of the coalition and secret deals not yet revealed to the public.
    Arrogance and incompetence basically.
    This means we have to be careful not to over extrapolate these results into a
    dystopic economic outlook."

    Quote from Alexanders weekly over view. Seems to be slightly (?} biased to me but not unexpected given he works for a bank.
    The part I do agree with (which received a mention on the AIR NZ thread) was synthetic meat and milk will in the not so distant future have a significant effect on the NZ economy.

    westerly

  8. #1283
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    I always that it intriguing and somewhat ironic that in the early stages of the economic boom in the early days of Labours last term in the 2000s net migration went from a 10,000 outflow to a 40,000 inflow......50,000 net change in migration over a few years
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I always that it intriguing and somewhat ironic that in the early stages of the economic boom in the early days of Labour’s last term in the 2000s net migration went from a 10,000 outflow to a 40,000 inflow......50,000 net change in migration over a few years
    Yes, as the StatsNZ article and chart shows, in Labour's last term there were three years of medium net immigration, but National's term had four years of higher net immigration than Labour's peak. So a lot more people turned up over that time period.

    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/international-travel-and-migration-articles/kiwi-factor-migration

  10. #1285
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    And a lot of those were Kiwis returning home during the GFC and a lot of kiwis not going overseas due to the world economic situation.

  11. #1286
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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    Yes, as the StatsNZ article and chart shows, in Labour's last term there were three years of medium net immigration, but National's term had four years of higher net immigration than Labour's peak. So a lot more people turned up over that time period.

    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/international-travel-and-migration-articles/kiwi-factor-migration
    Isn't that a good thing if expats like to come home (as they did under National) and Kiwis stay at home instead of queuing up at the departure gates as they did under Helen Clark?

    It is really sad to see Labor supporters celebrate that they get rid of our own people - just to make their poor housing policies looking a bit better.

    We are nearly one year into this populist government. Just wondering - how many of the 10,000 promised additional houses per year did our government build so far?
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  12. #1287
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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    Yes, as the StatsNZ article and chart shows, in Labour's last term there were three years of medium net immigration, but National's term had four years of higher net immigration than Labour's peak. So a lot more people turned up over that time period.

    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/international-travel-and-migration-articles/kiwi-factor-migration
    EZ I wasnt saying net migration was a good or bad thing

    What I was pointing out that during the first few years of Labours previous tenure there was a significant increase in net migration (~50,000) and the economy roared ahead.

    JTs and no doubt your view is that in the economy roared ahead under Labour because of their economic / financial management (in spite of falling business confidence) my view is that factors like net migration and RBNZ drove that growth rather than any government policy.

    I will agree with you if you say the same thing happened during Nationals tenure
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  13. #1288
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Isn't that a good thing if expats like to come home (as they did under National) and Kiwis stay at home instead of queuing up at the departure gates as they did under Helen Clark?

    It is really sad to see Labor supporters celebrate that they get rid of our own people - just to make their poor housing policies looking a bit better.

    We are nearly one year into this populist government. Just wondering - how many of the 10,000 promised additional houses per year did our government build so far?
    I’ve always thought it a bit sad that since the 80s every year there has been a negative net outflow of NZ citizens

    From that article — Since 1986, an average of 21,600 more Kiwis have left than arrived back

    So over the last 32 years that’s nearly a net 700,000 Kiwis who have deserted NZ. Just as well we allow foreigners to come to this country


    Nobody seems to have explained why.
    Last edited by winner69; 19-07-2018 at 08:07 AM.
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  14. #1289
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    Communism by Stealth .... so says Hooton

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12091904
    I know that I am intelligent, because I know that I know nothing Socrates

  15. #1290
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ..... So over the last 32 years that’s nearly a net 700,000 Kiwis who have deserted NZ. Just as well we allow foreigners to come to this country

    Nobody seems to have explained why.
    About a third of my generation - siblings and cousins - went to Australia in their early 20s or so. About 12. None came back. All settled there and raised families.

    My sister came back to NZ after her OE and tried to settle but couldn't. Mind you that was Palmerston North. Several others were also from the provinces, some rural.

    Small sample but bright lights over the ditch beckoned.

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