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  1. #1271
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    Quote Originally Posted by 777 View Post
    Would they diesel belching ones or electric?
    In this case they are diesel I would suspect, but at least they have some NZ content.

    The coalition's view on electrification of rail. Good background.

    https://www.noted.co.nz/currently/en...ovt-disagrees/
    Last edited by elZorro; 05-07-2018 at 07:00 AM.

  2. #1272
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Guru Mark from Craig’s comments on business survey ....but no worries because David Parker says the survey is a load of crap

    Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
    27/06/18, 4:24 PM
    OK. So business confidence has now been negative for nine consecutive months, the longest stretch in more than a decade. I’m not sure the government can ignore this for much longer. Policy uncertainty is clearly a key factor, and it doesn’t bode well for growth.

    Those business confidence surveys are just a measure of political bias. The link between confidence and performance of the economy can be non existent. Amy Adams etc are doing what they do best, scaremongering and recklessly talking down the economy, desperate and dirty.

    The Helen Clark Labour govt from 2000 to 2008, business was pessimistic 88 out of 99 months and the economy GREW 3.2% a year!

    2009 to 2017 under National business was optimistic for 89 months(during the GFC and ChCH earthquake) and the economy grew about 2%

    Growth around 3% is continuing now.

    Skilled staff is a/the major common issue and who created that eh?. labour have jim bolger taskforce on board, fees free policies,apprenticeship incentives , importing skilled labour etc

    A good listen here, on National radio of course. Listenduration 16′ :12″
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 08-07-2018 at 11:48 AM.

  3. #1273
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Those business confidence surveys are just a measure of political bias. The link between confidence and performance of the economy can be non existent. Amy Adams etc are doing what they do best, scaremongering and recklessly talking down the economy, desperate and dirty.

    The Helen Clark Labour govt from 2000 to 2008, business was pessimistic 88 out of 99 months and the economy GREW 3.2% a year!

    2009 to 2017 under National business was optimistic for 89 months(during the GFC and ChCH earthquake) and the economy grew about 2%

    Growth around 3% is continuing now.

    Skilled staff is a/the major common issue and who created that eh?. labour have jim bolger taskforce on board, fees free policies,apprenticeship incentives , importing skilled labour etc

    A good listen here, on National radio of course. Listenduration 16′ :12″
    Helen might have done OK early stages but NZ was in recession late 2007 early 2008 ......during Labour’s term and pre GFC.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1274
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    If you want to be informed listen to the podcast, if not dont.

  5. #1275
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Helen might have done OK early stages but NZ was in recession late 2007 early 2008 ......during Labour’s term and pre GFC.
    And burdened future Governments with crazy and hugely expensive middle class welfare schemes like WFF and interest free student loans, that were politically desperate measures to try to hold onto power, knowing it would be politically suicidal to try to remove. People like freebies and we the taxpayers pay for them. The Coalition Government has started down the same track and that may have something to do with lack of confidence by those that have to pay for it all.

    Thankfully this is likely to be a one term Government arrangement https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/9...in-party-jason

  6. #1276
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    If you want to be informed listen to the podcast, if not dont.

    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    That quote re GDP numbers under Labour / National are a bit misleading (mischieviously so?) as they have lumbered the Labour generated recession numbers into Nationals tenure. The NZ economy did grow strongly in the early 2000's but it was driven more by the RBNZ creating a boom rather than any political policies .....and we suffered the consequences in 2006-2008 with several rate increases (a bust) leading to that recession

    Maybe business confidence polls have some political bias but I doubt not to the degree some make out. I do the ANZ one for a small business I'm involved in and until recently the NZIER one for a corporate and answer as to where I genuinely think things are heading (maybe swayed by all the crap the media put out? maybe not).

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    Attached Images Attached Images
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #1277
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    Cheers winner, outstanding post. Less emotion and more facts. Where is the reputation button when you need it?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Cheers winner, outstanding post. Less emotion and more facts. Where is the reputation button when you need it?
    It’s the star shaped symbol at the bottom left of the post. Give it a go ...please

    I’ve given you one
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1279
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    That quote re GDP numbers under Labour / National are a bit misleading (mischieviously so?) as they have lumbered the Labour generated recession numbers into Nationals tenure. The NZ economy did grow strongly in the early 2000's but it was driven more by the RBNZ creating a boom rather than any political policies .....and we suffered the consequences in 2006-2008 with several rate increases (a bust) leading to that recession

    Maybe business confidence polls have some political bias but I doubt not to the degree some make out. I do the ANZ one for a small business I'm involved in and until recently the NZIER one for a corporate and answer as to where I genuinely think things are heading (maybe swayed by all the crap the media put out? maybe not).

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    Good stuff W69. Yes i agree with your 2nd line about that hazard..
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 09-07-2018 at 01:23 PM.

  10. #1280
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    That quote re GDP numbers under Labour / National are a bit misleading (mischieviously so?) as they have lumbered the Labour generated recession numbers into Nationals tenure. The NZ economy did grow strongly in the early 2000's but it was driven more by the RBNZ creating a boom rather than any political policies .....and we suffered the consequences in 2006-2008 with several rate increases (a bust) leading to that recession

    Maybe business confidence polls have some political bias but I doubt not to the degree some make out. I do the ANZ one for a small business I'm involved in and until recently the NZIER one for a corporate and answer as to where I genuinely think things are heading (maybe swayed by all the crap the media put out? maybe not).

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    W69, how exactly did you come to the conclusion that Labour's policies led to a recession in 2007-2008? Wikipedia shows that the GFC's first indicator was in August 2007, and the Dow-Jones hit a peak in October 2007.

    The first notable event signaling a possible financial crisis occurred in the United Kingdom on August 9, 2007, when BNP Paribas, citing "a complete evaporation of liquidity", blocked withdrawals from three hedge funds. The significance of this event was not immediately recognized but soon led to a panic as investors and savers attempted to liquidate assets deposited in highly leveraged financial institutions.[22]

    The International Monetary Fund estimated that large US and European banks lost more than $1 trillion on toxic assets and from bad loans from January 2007 to September 2009. These losses are expected to top $2.8 trillion from 2007 to 2010. US bank losses were forecast to hit $1 trillion and European bank losses will reach $1.6 trillion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in 2009 that US banks were about 60% through their losses, but British and eurozone banks only 40%.[207]
    One of the first victims was Northern Rock, a medium-sized British bank.[208] The highly leveraged nature of its business led the bank to request security from the Bank of England. This in turn led to investor panic and a bank run[209] in mid-September 2007. Calls by Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesman Vince Cable to nationalise the institution were initially ignored; in February 2008, however, the British government (having failed to find a private sector buyer) relented, and the bank was taken into public hands. Northern Rock's problems proved to be an early indication of the troubles that would soon befall other banks and financial institutions.
    I also note a conservative bias in the business activity outlooks. While the opinions are about 50-50 balanced around zero, the GDP growth rarely drops below 0%. However as these collective opinions do appear to be leading the actual GDP growth chart, it's also possible that there is an element of it being a driving force, but not always a positive force.

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