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  1. #1281
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    Proof (as if we needed it) that NZ voters are not really ready for radical policy changes, for better or for worse https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12085868
    Last edited by iceman; 10-07-2018 at 06:09 AM.

  2. #1282
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I had listened to that discussion when it was on radio.


    I think we both probably only hear what we want to hear but I would hazard a guess I probably hear a bit more than you do.

    Think what you will but the chart below showing the relationship between GDP and one of te questions in the NZIER business outlook surveys is pretty compelling. From a Tony Alexander report but has real numbers from NZIER and Stats NZ. No comment is really needed but no harm in reading Tony's comments
    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-conten...uly-5-2018.pdf
    "As noted in our analysis of the ANZ’s monthly release, there is a downward bias to business sentiment when Labour are in power as businesses worry about new regulations,the lack of business sector familiarity of the MPs,
    the eventual loss of fiscal bowel control, infighting by ideology-
    driven people, and this time around the fragile nature of the coalition and secret deals not yet revealed to the public.
    Arrogance and incompetence basically.
    This means we have to be careful not to over extrapolate these results into a
    dystopic economic outlook."

    Quote from Alexanders weekly over view. Seems to be slightly (?} biased to me but not unexpected given he works for a bank.
    The part I do agree with (which received a mention on the AIR NZ thread) was synthetic meat and milk will in the not so distant future have a significant effect on the NZ economy.

    westerly

  3. #1283
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I always that it intriguing and somewhat ironic that in the early stages of the economic boom in the early days of Labour’s last term in the 2000s net migration went from a 10,000 outflow to a 40,000 inflow......50,000 net change in migration over a few years
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1284
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I always that it intriguing and somewhat ironic that in the early stages of the economic boom in the early days of Labour’s last term in the 2000s net migration went from a 10,000 outflow to a 40,000 inflow......50,000 net change in migration over a few years
    Yes, as the StatsNZ article and chart shows, in Labour's last term there were three years of medium net immigration, but National's term had four years of higher net immigration than Labour's peak. So a lot more people turned up over that time period.

    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/international-travel-and-migration-articles/kiwi-factor-migration

  5. #1285
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    And a lot of those were Kiwis returning home during the GFC and a lot of kiwis not going overseas due to the world economic situation.

  6. #1286
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    Yes, as the StatsNZ article and chart shows, in Labour's last term there were three years of medium net immigration, but National's term had four years of higher net immigration than Labour's peak. So a lot more people turned up over that time period.

    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/international-travel-and-migration-articles/kiwi-factor-migration
    Isn't that a good thing if expats like to come home (as they did under National) and Kiwis stay at home instead of queuing up at the departure gates as they did under Helen Clark?

    It is really sad to see Labor supporters celebrate that they get rid of our own people - just to make their poor housing policies looking a bit better.

    We are nearly one year into this populist government. Just wondering - how many of the 10,000 promised additional houses per year did our government build so far?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #1287
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    Yes, as the StatsNZ article and chart shows, in Labour's last term there were three years of medium net immigration, but National's term had four years of higher net immigration than Labour's peak. So a lot more people turned up over that time period.

    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/international-travel-and-migration-articles/kiwi-factor-migration
    EZ — I wasn’t saying net migration was a good or bad thing

    What I was pointing out that during the first few years of Labour’s previous tenure there was a significant increase in net migration (~50,000) and the economy roared ahead.

    JTs and no doubt your view is that in the economy roared ahead under Labour because of their economic / financial management (in spite of falling business confidence) — my view is that factors like net migration and RBNZ drove that growth rather than any government policy.

    I will agree with you if you say the same thing happened during Nationals tenure
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #1288
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Isn't that a good thing if expats like to come home (as they did under National) and Kiwis stay at home instead of queuing up at the departure gates as they did under Helen Clark?

    It is really sad to see Labor supporters celebrate that they get rid of our own people - just to make their poor housing policies looking a bit better.

    We are nearly one year into this populist government. Just wondering - how many of the 10,000 promised additional houses per year did our government build so far?
    I’ve always thought it a bit sad that since the 80s every year there has been a negative net outflow of NZ citizens

    From that article — Since 1986, an average of 21,600 more Kiwis have left than arrived back

    So over the last 32 years that’s nearly a net 700,000 Kiwis who have deserted NZ. Just as well we allow foreigners to come to this country


    Nobody seems to have explained why.
    Last edited by winner69; 19-07-2018 at 08:07 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1289
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Communism by Stealth .... so says Hooton

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12091904
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #1290
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ..... So over the last 32 years that’s nearly a net 700,000 Kiwis who have deserted NZ. Just as well we allow foreigners to come to this country

    Nobody seems to have explained why.
    About a third of my generation - siblings and cousins - went to Australia in their early 20s or so. About 12. None came back. All settled there and raised families.

    My sister came back to NZ after her OE and tried to settle but couldn't. Mind you that was Palmerston North. Several others were also from the provinces, some rural.

    Small sample but bright lights over the ditch beckoned.

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