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14-12-2018, 09:07 AM
#211
Originally Posted by Beagle
WOW...you know its been a brutally tough year in the market when the top performer of over 170 entrants is up a modest 25%.
What’s the average I wonder
No need for me look through the whole list ...Sylvester kindly posted the top 5
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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14-12-2018, 10:13 AM
#212
Originally Posted by winner69
What’s the average I wonder
No need for me look through the whole list ...Sylvester kindly posted the top 5
Are you trying to say that you are 'winning" in the top 5?
The average return for the 178 entrants is a brutal 0.6%.
Last edited by Oliver Mander; 14-12-2018 at 10:14 AM.
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14-12-2018, 10:37 AM
#213
Coupe of other fixes that will appear in the next update:
1) Have fixed ARV share price on June 18th - that was causing a weird downwards spike for those of us who picked it (no change overall, just that one date)
2) Have fixed the graph to show dates properly (had not realised, sorry about that)
3) Have put the ranking column back in the webpage (for some reason, the webpage had pushed it out).
No great changes, but tidies it up a bit.
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14-12-2018, 12:36 PM
#214
Originally Posted by SylvesterCat
good on ya Snoopy, but would have thought he real plaudits go to those who are in 1st place!!!
From a strict perspective, viewing this as a competition on its own, you have a point. However, I don't think you would find a single investment advisor that would tell you to put all your money in the market on 1st January and pull it out on 31st December. So I prefer to look at this competition, which I must add I appreciate your hard work organizing Sylvester, as one year of a multi year strategy. I also put my money where my mouth is. So that means my competition returns are a fair representation of my actual returns over the period.
From a pure winning the competition perspective, the best strategy would be to pick your five hottest growth shares as your entry. But in the competition there is no actual loss risk to fictional capital. So I suspect many of the high performing entries bear very little reality to the shares those punters actually hold. Good on them for 'winning'. But winning a competition with a fictional entry is of no interest at all to me. I do find the competition very useful for keeping track of my portfolio through the year though!
This is all about learning. If you blow your own trumpet, you're closing your mind off to the possibility that others might have better ideas in terms of their investment selections.
Not at all. I am happy to hear other peoples ideas. But most stick in their competition entries and we fellow entrants are none the wiser as to what the strategy behind the picks is. If you go back to my entry I think I did explain why I picked what I did in advance.
What's the old saying...pride before a fall? I like to say that hubris prevents learning as well.
I have put up my performance, which I am happy with. If others have done better over the six years, then they are very welcome to paint their own picture.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 14-12-2018 at 12:49 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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14-12-2018, 02:40 PM
#215
Originally Posted by greater fool
Wrong. So wrong. A loss cannot exceed the input. A total loss is 100%, No more. ( unless, as you say, you add to input. Which is not happening here. )
Statistics makes monkeys of many people. One of my pet hates, because is happens often, is the political polls when reported by
the media chooks, is a statement along the lines off " the xyz party is polling below the margin of error ". Must have failed math
at school ( and off sick for stats class ) hence became a journo.
"It makes no difference in terms of your individual "picks portfolio" though"
is simply not true. a non existent additional loss is added. In this case -8%
Regardless of the philosophy...(and we defintely agree that its only if you put more in!)...
The actual way the picks portfolios are calculated is on actual value on the portfolio - I've checked. So its comparing a total with a total and giving a percentage difference. Its NOT trying to "weight" the %age difference of -108%! So in your case...
- you started with $10k
- your total return, including dividends, is -$875.72
- your %age difference is -8.75% for the first 11 months of the year
- if you kept losing $ at that rate, your annualised loss is 9.5%.
So that's what i mean when i say the actual calculation, and your ranking, is correct as it is based on actual values.
Of course, at the end of the year, the annualised value and the actual return become the same figure anyway.
Enter username |
|
greater fool |
|
|
Overall Rank |
135 |
out of |
170 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share |
Weight |
Initial Investment |
Shares |
Open price |
Close price |
Close Investment |
Dividends received |
Rights Issue value |
Total $ Return |
%age |
annualised %age |
Pick 1 |
CBL |
20% |
$2,000 |
657.89 |
$3.040 |
$0.001 |
$1 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
-$1,999.34 |
-100.0% |
-108.6% |
Pick 2 |
MCK |
20% |
$2,000 |
732.60 |
$2.730 |
$3.040 |
$2,227 |
$43.96 |
$0.00 |
$271.06 |
13.6% |
14.7% |
Pick 3 |
NWF |
20% |
$2,000 |
13,698.63 |
$0.146 |
$0.155 |
$2,123 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$123.29 |
6.2% |
6.7% |
Pick 4 |
OCA |
20% |
$2,000 |
1,904.76 |
$1.050 |
$1.140 |
$2,171 |
$89.52 |
$0.00 |
$260.95 |
13.0% |
14.2% |
Pick 5 |
SPK |
20% |
$2,000 |
550.96 |
$3.630 |
$4.230 |
$2,331 |
$137.74 |
$0.00 |
$468.32 |
23.4% |
25.4% |
|
|
|
$10,000 |
|
|
|
$8,853 |
$271.22 |
$0.00 |
-$875.72 |
-8.8% |
-9.5% |
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17-12-2018, 12:50 PM
#216
Updated results for December 14th now available.
I have taken into account greater fools comments above - so the loss on an individual share limited to 100% for the annualised percentage, and the portfolio annualised return %age adjusted accordingly. It makes no difference on Dec 31st, but its a fair enough change to make in the context of not tipping in more capital...
And yes - we have yet another new leader!! Well done VR, return of close to 30% looking pretty good! Of interest is...
- Craig's Investment Partners is in 8th place, a long way ahead of other Broker's picks.
- Our average this year is an eye-watering MINUS 1%!!!
Username |
Pick 1 |
Pick 2 |
Pick 3 |
Pick 4 |
Pick 5 |
Opening Investment |
Closing Investment |
add Dividends |
add Rights Issue |
TOTAL $ RETURN |
TOTAL %AGE |
TOTAL Annualised %age |
Rank |
Vr |
PLX |
AIR |
ATM |
WHS |
MVN |
$10,000 |
$12,416 |
$437 |
$0 |
$2,853 |
28.5% |
29.8% |
1 |
RGR367 |
ATM |
BLT |
OHE |
RAK |
SKO |
$10,000 |
$12,304 |
$0 |
$0 |
$2,304 |
23.0% |
24.0% |
2 |
Pending |
PPH |
ATM |
SKO |
IKE |
WDT |
$10,000 |
$12,283 |
$0 |
$0 |
$2,283 |
22.8% |
23.8% |
3 |
chinesekiwi |
OCA |
VGL |
PLX |
ARV |
FNZ |
$10,000 |
$11,846 |
$262 |
$0 |
$2,108 |
21.1% |
22.0% |
4 |
t.rexjr |
IKE |
NTL |
RBC |
SKO |
TWR |
$10,000 |
$11,811 |
$0 |
$0 |
$1,811 |
18.1% |
18.9% |
5 |
Full results are available ont he usual website...https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...icks-2018/home
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17-12-2018, 01:45 PM
#217
What a tough year...medium return for spot 85 is just 0.1%. Top quartile starts at position 42 at just 7.3% total return.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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17-12-2018, 01:53 PM
#218
Originally Posted by Beagle
What a tough year...medium return for spot 85 is just 0.1%. Top quartile starts at position 42 at just 7.3% total return.
Sort of returns one expects when you buy a market that’s ridiculously overvalued — history shows buy when PEs are high (market and individual stocks) future returns always disappoint. That’s how markets go.
Median return 0.1% is pretty good in these circumstances
NZX50 PE still higher than at beginning of year even though earnings trend not looking too good. That doesn’t bode well for 2019 does it
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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17-12-2018, 02:03 PM
#219
SHARETRADER TOP 5 shows a pretty dismal oerformance considering how we all think we are so great etc etc etc
What do they say about the collective wisdom of crowds (the wise ones)?
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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17-12-2018, 03:40 PM
#220
Originally Posted by winner69
Sort of returns one expects when you buy a market that’s ridiculously overvalued — history shows buy when PEs are high (market and individual stocks) future returns always disappoint. That’s how markets go.
Median return 0.1% is pretty good in these circumstances
NZX50 PE still higher than at beginning of year even though earnings trend not looking too good. That doesn’t bode well for 2019 does it
No its pretty ominous. We are fortunate in N.Z. to have a high dividend yield by international standards and a good imputation system which allows the selection of a number of defensive high yield shares with the aim to achieve a top quartile return like that 7.3% without the need for capital gain.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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