2018 Stock Picking Contest

[Beagle]

Agree 100%. Very good of you to do this and to offer to continue for another year. Many thanks.

[Leftfield]

THANK YOU!! Sylvester Cat. We all learn so much from this competition (and of course we can't all be winners). The learning comes from seeing other investors choices and their results.
Thank you.

[Snoopy]

Not threatening the leaders, but pretty happy with my 74th place. I run a deep value strategy which I expect will underperform the market in any year the rampant bull takes charge. I am up 12.5% with 3/4 of the year gone. By any definition this is a bull year. Yet the NZX50 is 'only' up 11.3%. So I am up 1.2% on the index when I expected to be at least that far behind. So couldn't be happier.

Little did I know when I wrote the above post that the latest episode of world market volatility would start the very next day. Of course like anyone else with a decent spread in a portfolio of shares I am down as a result. The end of October result sees me +11.1% for the year (down from 12.5% at the end of last month). But in the relative contest I have jumped quite a bit: from 74th to 38th place. By contrast the NZX50 is now only up 4.2% for the year. So my outperformance of the index is now 6.9 percentage points for the year. This is the kind of thing I expect in a tough market and is a vindication of my deep value strategy. Not that it needed vinidicating. There are plenty of studies out there that show this kind of strategy works just like this.

From this result, you can see why I do not use a 'stop loss' strategy. I am only down 1.4%. The brokerage I would have to pay to 'recover' from this loss, if I had gone in and out of the market, would be greater than the loss I experienced.

SNOOPY

[Oliver Mander]

end-November results are out!! Results are available at on https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...icks-2018/home
Note that...
1) I've adjusted HBL to HGH to allow for the code change;
2) I've written down CBL from its last trade of $3.17 to $0. (sorry).

Summary top 5 results are shown here...the markets are volatile and so is our little competition!! DON'T FORGET TO GET YOUR ENTRIES IN FOR NET YEAR!! - the more the merrier. Will also look to make the results more automated, and perhaps add another "active" competition running in parallel...:-)!

Username	Pick 1	Pick 2	Pick 3	Pick 4	Pick 5	Opening Investment	Closing Investment	add Dividends	add Rights Issue	TOTAL $ RETURN	TOTAL %AGE	TOTAL Annualised %age	Rank
RGR367	ATM	BLT	OHE	RAK	SKO	$10,000	$12,510	$0	$0	$2,510	25.1%	27.3%	1
Vr	PLX	AIR	ATM	WHS	MVN	$10,000	$11,710	$437	$0	$2,148	21.5%	23.3%	2
Lawnmower man	ATM	SUM	SML	PPH	HLG	$10,000	$11,934	$149	$0	$2,083	20.8%	22.6%	3
chinesekiwi	OCA	VGL	PLX	ARV	FNZ	$10,000	$11,838	$241	$0	$2,079	20.8%	22.6%	4
Pending	PPH	ATM	SKO	IKE	WDT	$10,000	$12,071	$0	$0	$2,071	20.7%	22.5%	5

[winner69]

Doing a sterling job here Sylvester

Nice of you to post the top 5 ...saves me going to your website

[Snoopy]

Little did I know when I wrote the above post that the latest episode of world market volatility would start the very next day. Of course like anyone else with a decent spread in a portfolio of shares I am down as a result. The end of October result sees me +11.1% for the year (down from 12.5% at the end of last month). But in the relative contest I have jumped quite a bit: from 74th to 38th place. By contrast the NZX50 is now only up 4.2% for the year. So my out-performance of the index is now 6.9 percentage points for the year. This is the kind of thing I expect in a tough market and is a vindication of my deep value strategy. Not that it needed vindicating. There are plenty of studies out there that show this kind of strategy works just like this.

From this result, you can see why I do not use a 'stop loss' strategy. I am only down 1.4%. The brokerage I would have to pay to 'recover' from this loss, if I had gone in and out of the market, would be greater than the loss I experienced.

Good 'battle of the beagles' shaping up here. The other Beagle made a stellar start and has now embarked on an end of year retreat. This Beagle stumbled along nearly tracking the index until the October volatility started. Then the index dropped away and I didn't. So I am now up to 24th place only one spot behind the other Beagle. The index has recovered to +5.5% for the year and I am at +12.2%. So I am now looking at a 7.1% percentage point out-performance of the index. Bring on December 31st! Having said that I am unlikely to match my absolute performance for 2017 of 22% (+1.5% on the index), or even the +13.1% for FY2016. Hopefully I will stay ahead of the +11.8% result for FY2015. I see I achieved +18.65% for FY2014 but was back to +9% in FY2013. +42% seems to be my best number though, back in FY2012. Given most of these returns are cumulative, I can't complain about where I have ended up after the last six years of NZX investing! My entries over the last six years were as follows:

						Portfolio Return
2018:	CEN	RBD	SKC	SKL	SPK	+12.2% (pending)
2017:	CEN	RBD	SKC	SKL	SPK	+22.0%
2016:	CEN	PGW	RBD	SKC	SPK	+13.1%
2015:	PGW	RBD	SKC	SCT	SPK	+11.8%
2014:	PGW	RBD	SKC	SCT	SPK	+18.7%
2013:	RBD	SKC	SCT	SPK	TUA	+9.0%
2012:	RBD	SKC	SCT	SPK	TUA	+42.0%
Cumulative Return 2012 to 2017						+183%

Notes

1/ Just to make that clear. For every $1000 I had at the start of 2012, I now have $2834 after six years of investing.
2/ Note that SPK (or TEL as it was) RBD and SKC have been held over the whole period.

SNOOPY

[Oliver Mander]

good on ya Snoopy, but would have thought he real plaudits go to those who are in 1st place!!!

This is all about learning. If you blow your own trumpet, you're closing your mind off to the possibility that others might have better ideas in terms of their investment selections.
What's the old saying...pride before a fall? I like to say that hubris prevents learning as well.

[Oliver Mander]

Actually correct tho. If you kept losing money at that rate, you'd have to keep topping up (to lose it again!!). I think in some companies, including CBL, they call it a capital raise.....????

I guess for negative returns i should cap it at 100%. It makes no difference in terms of your individual "picks portfolio" though!!

[RGR367]

end-November results are out!! Results are available at on https://sites.google.com/view/sharet...icks-2018/home
Note that...
1) I've adjusted HBL to HGH to allow for the code change;
2) I've written down CBL from its last trade of $3.17 to $0. (sorry).

Summary top 5 results are shown here...the markets are volatile and so is our little competition!! DON'T FORGET TO GET YOUR ENTRIES IN FOR NET YEAR!! - the more the merrier. Will also look to make the results more automated, and perhaps add another "active" competition running in parallel...:-)!

Username	Pick 1	Pick 2	Pick 3	Pick 4	Pick 5	Opening Investment	Closing Investment	add Dividends	add Rights Issue	TOTAL $ RETURN	TOTAL %AGE	TOTAL Annualised %age	Rank
RGR367	ATM	BLT	OHE	RAK	SKO	$10,000	$12,510	$0	$0	$2,510	25.1%	27.3%	1
Vr	PLX	AIR	ATM	WHS	MVN	$10,000	$11,710	$437	$0	$2,148	21.5%	23.3%	2
Lawnmower man	ATM	SUM	SML	PPH	HLG	$10,000	$11,934	$149	$0	$2,083	20.8%	22.6%	3
chinesekiwi	OCA	VGL	PLX	ARV	FNZ	$10,000	$11,838	$241	$0	$2,079	20.8%	22.6%	4
Pending	PPH	ATM	SKO	IKE	WDT	$10,000	$12,071	$0	$0	$2,071	20.7%	22.5%	5

Though still a couple of weeks left, I'm on top! Bragging until the Market turn against my choices.

[Beagle]

WOW...you know its been a brutally tough year in the market when the top performer of over 170 entrants is up a modest 25%.