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Originally Posted by SylvesterCat
What do others think? Quite happy to have different weightings, not too hard to manage, but open to consensus.
Will probably run it thru my own tool, as have got a good way if doing it that will let you do your own reporting as well. Will get a website link up here shortly, which will also let you submit that way.
Thanks mate, very good of you to take this over. I would strongly recommend sticking with the previous format of five equal weightings for the sake of simplicity.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by Beagle
Thanks mate, very good of you to take this over. I would strongly recommend sticking with the previous format of five equal weightings for the sake of simplicity.
Agree, and all the rules are posted at the beginning of the 2017 comp thread, no need to revisit them unless some good ideas not thought of before.
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Ok, will find them in that thread and re-post accordingly.
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SC Here's the 2017 rules FYI....
The rules,
- Entries are made and are able to be subsequently modified by using the entry form on this site, and/or by posting in this thread.
- Entries will close on Monday, 9th January 2016 at 9:00am.
- Only one entry in each yearly competition is permitted per person.
- You may not use the alias that belongs to someone else on sharetrader.co.nz, or misrepresent another person.
- Five selections must be made, the same stock cannot be selected twice. The entry form will enforce this.
- There is a predefined list of stocks to select from, which will be those that are listed on the NZSX or NZAX and with a market capitalisation of at least $10 million as at 1st December 2016.
- Everyone has the same entry price, that will be the closing price of the stock on the last day of trading before the competiton begins- this will be the close price on Friday 6th January 2017.
- Competition closes with last traded prices on the last trading day in the 2016 calendar year.
- Dividends will be incorporated, rights issues will not. Any other random distributions will be incorporated, at the discretion of the contest administrator.
- If a selection delists or otherwise somehow disolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this.
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Originally Posted by Left field
SC Here's the 2017 rules FYI....
The rules,
- Entries are made and are able to be subsequently modified by using the entry form on this site, and/or by posting in this thread.
- Entries will close on Monday, 9th January 2016 at 9:00am.
- Only one entry in each yearly competition is permitted per person.
- You may not use the alias that belongs to someone else on sharetrader.co.nz, or misrepresent another person.
- Five selections must be made, the same stock cannot be selected twice. The entry form will enforce this.
- There is a predefined list of stocks to select from, which will be those that are listed on the NZSX or NZAX and with a market capitalisation of at least $10 million as at 1st December 2016.
- Everyone has the same entry price, that will be the closing price of the stock on the last day of trading before the competiton begins- this will be the close price on Friday 6th January 2017.
- Competition closes with last traded prices on the last trading day in the 2016 calendar year.
- Dividends will be incorporated, rights issues will not. Any other random distributions will be incorporated, at the discretion of the contest administrator.
- If a selection delists or otherwise somehow disolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this.
Okay - but there will be different link to a different form, obviously!! - so please don't use the one posted by leftfield above .
So...try this.
1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ). Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $10m may not be selected.
2) Each pick has an equal weighting.
3) Picks in by 11pm December 29th 2017 (New Zealand time)
4) You may not use the alias that belongs to someone else on sharetrader.co.nz, or misrepresent another person.
Returns calculations
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $10,000
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2017 (which i think is Dec 29th 2017) to the last closing price of 2018.
3) Its a 'total return' comp, so Dividends will be included - but NOT benefits from imputation credits or other tax-specific benefits.
4) Rights issues are included according to the 'Snoopy Formula'. This does not increase capital, but recognises a capital gain/loss on the rights for the year.
5) If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this.
6) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.
There are THREE ways to enter:
1) via this survey form: https://1drv.ms/xs/s!AuUMI8ycnlsfhcJI7b9trJ43BUzuVg
2) email to sylvestercat2018@gmail.com
3) private message on sharetrader
I won't publish what people are picking before Dec 29th.
Hope this is all good!!
Last edited by Oliver Mander; 19-12-2017 at 11:02 AM.
Reason: Updates rules
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Originally Posted by SylvesterCat
.... I also don't see a need for the market cap rule...it might be a liquidity thing, but the opening/closing price is simply the last traded price. Not sure why companies < $10m were not included...?......
The reason of the min $10mill cap is one of volatility. Penny stocks and Penny Dreadful stocks can swing wildly (and very frequently) based on small changes in business dynamics and market sentiment. It can easily dwarf the percentage gains made (and lost) by more 'regular' stocks.
I encourage you to keep the stock-mkt-cap-must-be-over-$10mill-at-the-start-date rule, or risk a fair amount of complaining later on in the piece. I understand the rule was bought in for good reason many years ago.
By way of example, the majority of the nzx and asx top daily gainers and daily decliners (on the few occasions I have looked at these) are stocks that go up and down by a minuscule amount (mostly less than 1 cent if I recall correctly.. especially on the asx) on the day.
Vetting out the stocks under $10mill is not onerous (pretty much a one-off task) from an administrative viewpoint.
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Vaygor, that would put the following stocks as exclusions. Looking at their charts, they don't appear any more or less volatile than most others, with the possible exception of the meteoric rise of Chow Group (on thin trading). There are some real beacons of NZ corporate management on that list .
I guess I'm of the view that it makes no difference - if someone is brave enough to pick them, good luck to them. High risk high return and all that. But I hadn't realised the competition had gone on for years - thought it was just a 2017 thing. I have no baggage around it, so quite happy to go with consensus. Can people reply to this post with their thoughts please?
Chow Group CGL.NZX 9.87M
GeoOP GEO.NZX 9.73M
CSM Ltd CSM.NZX 8.29M
Chatham Rock CRP.NZX 6.68M
AFC AFC.NZX 3.66M
NZFGROUP BGI.NZX 3.52M
VERITAS VIL.NZX 2.77M
TRSINVEST TRS.NZX 2.43M
AORERE AOR.NZX 1.48M
Snakk SNK.NZX 1.46M
Mykco MYK.NZX 1.18M
ENERGY MAD MAD.NZX 590K
WINDFLOW WTL.NZX 386K
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Member
Originally Posted by SylvesterCat
But I hadn't realised the competition had gone on for years - thought it was just a 2017 thing.
Links to previous results:
2015
https://stocktastic.co.nz/rankings/2015
2016
https://stocktastic.co.nz/rankings/2016
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Originally Posted by thestg
I've been a member since 2012 and as far as I recall the comp was running at least 1 year (if not 5 or more) before I joined.
In response SylvesterCat, I dont think it is the volatility over the long term or even the short term that is the issue. It is the extremely short term, whereby somebody who is in front on 1 day finds themselves in place 50 the next and vice versa a few days later. The winner can become even more of a random selection at the mercy of the cut-off date than is already the case.
Paper Tiger - can you shed any further light on this and recall why this rule was ever introduced?
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just took a snapshot of this mornings NZX biggest %age gainers and decliners.....
Screen Shot 2017-12-05 at 10.35.53 AM.jpg
6/10 of them up or down by 1 cent or less. The top 2 in each category being fractions of cent up or down.
It's like this virtually every time I've ever looked at this on the NZX and ASX.
I will completely respect whatever your decision may be SylvesterCat. Just trying to help.
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