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  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
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    313

    Default Guess the value of NZX50 on the last day of 2018

    Lets do some predictions to see how wrong we are at the end of 2018 and laugh at our crystal ball gazing abilities!(given I laugh at market predictors all the time anyways so maybe I should laugh at myself too)

    I still think there will be strength in a lot of industries, however some of the gains in NZX50 have been skewed slightly because of the over performance of select few like ATM and AIR which really pushes up an index with less shares. I'm hoping we come to our senses a little bit with some of the valuations in the market but who knows, this bull has surprised me.

    There is one more day left in 2017 for trading (and an abbreviated trading day), but we are at 8,364 reflecting about a 20% gain in 2017 which has been an unbelievable result.

    My guess is 9122

    Winner gets a good old chocolate fish

  2. #2
    Banned
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    470

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by value_investor View Post
    Lets do some predictions to see how wrong we are at the end of 2018 and laugh at our crystal ball gazing abilities!(given I laugh at market predictors all the time anyways so maybe I should laugh at myself too)

    I still think there will be strength in a lot of industries, however some of the gains in NZX50 have been skewed slightly because of the over performance of select few like ATM and AIR which really pushes up an index with less shares. I'm hoping we come to our senses a little bit with some of the valuations in the market but who knows, this bull has surprised me.

    There is one more day left in 2017 for trading (and an abbreviated trading day), but we are at 8,364 reflecting about a 20% gain in 2017 which has been an unbelievable result.

    My guess is 9122

    Winner gets a good old chocolate fish
    My guess - 8650

  3. #3
    Missed by that much
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    898

    Default

    I'll be a bit more optimistic at 9999

  4. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    Waihi
    Posts
    209

    Default

    Stock market crash coming, I'd say 2500

  5. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Location
    Napier
    Posts
    132

    Default

    10,122 THL, OCA, HLG will all do well (I Hope)

  6. #6
    CEO, NZ Shareholders Association
    Join Date
    May 2017
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    594

    Default

    I will go 9375...

  7. #7
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    10,000 exactly.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #8
    AWOL
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Vacation
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    2,782

    Default

    Ill do an outlier: 13750.
    Always positive, you know me.

  9. #9
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    1,982

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Horseshoe View Post
    Stock market crash coming, I'd say 2500

    It is highly unlikely that it will hit 2500. It may drop to 5000 during next two years.
    In a worst case scenario, it may drop to 4000.At least it may drop below 8000 and it may reach 7000 or 6000 by the end of 2018. Investors who fare best in 2018 will be selective, with a focus on high quality (strong balance sheets). Stock pickers will have a chance to shine. Value investors will have more chance. Overlooked stocks could be the best bet. In short, I am bearish but see opportunity in overlooked stocks and overlooked markets in 2018.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 25-12-2017 at 10:42 PM.

  10. #10
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    In a bubble
    Posts
    726

    Default

    9450 as the good times roll... the good times will never come to an end right guys?

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