Guess the value of NZX50 on the last day of 2018

[couta1]

6700, market correction coming sometime in 2018

Some US commentators are predicting a 10-15% correction to the US markets this year and that the corporate tax cuts will only produce a short lived rise. Add to that the lack of the usual Santa Claus rally which some believe is a precursor to a bear market possibility makes it hard to see where the NZX will finish up. I will go with 7500.

[winner69]

A bull market in interest rates is a bear market for you

http://moneyonline.cmail19.com/t/Vie...5DA65DC0D0F53AA bull market in interest rates is a bear market for you

[value_investor]

Some US commentators are predicting a 10-15% correction to the US markets this year and that the corporate tax cuts will only produce a short lived rise. Add to that the lack of the usual Santa Claus rally which some believe is a precursor to a bear market possibility makes it hard to see where the NZX will finish up. I will go with 7500.

I've read a lot more doomsday predictors this time around than we had last year, but a lot of them point to very isolated events occurring or are under the pretense that since we haven't had a crash in record time we are due which is a silly.

Looking back at the predictions made a year ago, I can see alot of these 'experts' didn't go for the jugular and say that the markets would gain as much as it did. A lot of the time, it seems when they are unsure they will say something like "high single digits" which is just a sure way to be safe and not get caught out.

Funny now with the internet, and with the last crash a lot of people are in fear of being caught out as wrong as those who are get their name spoiled.

Any who, time in the market is much stronger than timing the market imo.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...rket-in-stocks

[value_investor]

Interesting re-reading the thread, a lot more optimism at the start of the year. Are people still feeling the same heading into earnings season? I've been reading a lot of low business confidence etc.

The nzx50 has really outperformed most other indexes out there. We're up about 8% already for the year and it hasn't been an outlier type of year for stocks.

https://smartshares.co.nz/types-of-funds/smartlarge/tnz

The top 10 as per today even shows more room for improvement if some of these stinkers could turn around even a little bit from where they started. SPK, FBU, ZEL, SKC aren't pulling all their own weight..

[Beagle]

Still hoping for 10,000 but we will need to see less upheaval and troublemaking from "the Don" to get there. Risk is this left wing inexperienced govt undermines business confidence even further and then all bets are off as business's go in to their collective shells, stop capex spending and hunker down for what could be a recession.