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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShareFodder View Post
    Well, apparently as recently as April, Goldman told their clients.

    “Early signs of success in the US remain strong: APT has experienced a record month of US app downloads, website visitations numbers are growing and it continues to add more retailers. APT will likely need to invest in infrastructure (staff, marketing, customer service, etc.) to support this strong growth and, as a result, our earnings revisions are more muted than our top line upgrades.”

    And then in May, APT announced their $300m US receivables facility.
    Yeah, but you have to take this information with a 'grain of salt'. It's all coming off the recent launch into the US. Also, this data has come from the post Christmas period, which as I've said previously is part of their better period (along with the pre-Christmas season).

    Also, how do you define what "strong" is when there is little to compare it to. The US expansion has only been going on for less than 1 year.

    This is very similar to what Big Review TV said when it first expanded into the US. It's easy to spend a lot on marketing and promotion and enter a new large market and generate growth headlines such as those.

    It's extremely unlikely that Afterpay will be able to reproduce it's same success without the free news and social media buzz it had. Also, with increased competition, delayed entry, and operating from outside the US, this would make it even harder.

    I'm not saying that things aren't going well in the US for Afterpay. It's just that it's way too early to see. The market has already priced in success based on dubious evidence and irrational exuberance.

    Over $25m worth or shorts yesterday:

    https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=apt

    Down again today.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Yeah, but you have to take this information with a 'grain of salt'. It's all coming off the recent launch into the US. Also, this data has come from the post Christmas period, which as I've said previously is part of their better period (along with the pre-Christmas season).

    Also, how do you define what "strong" is when there is little to compare it to. The US expansion has only been going on for less than 1 year.

    This is very similar to what Big Review TV said when it first expanded into the US. It's easy to spend a lot on marketing and promotion and enter a new large market and generate growth headlines such as those.

    It's extremely unlikely that Afterpay will be able to reproduce it's same success without the free news and social media buzz it had. Also, with increased competition, delayed entry, and operating from outside the US, this would make it even harder.

    I'm not saying that things aren't going well in the US for Afterpay. It's just that it's way too early to see. The market has already priced in success based on dubious evidence and irrational exuberance.

    Over $25m worth or shorts yesterday:

    https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=apt

    Down again today.
    Today, APT announced 1.5m US customers have 'used' afterpay and 3,300 US retailers on board. These results seem pretty impressive indicating about 70% growth in the last 3 months (the last numbers I saw were 1,900 retailers and 900k active customers around the end of feb). So, I don't think there is much sign of things slowing down post Christmas.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShareFodder View Post
    Today, APT announced 1.5m US customers have 'used' afterpay and 3,300 US retailers on board. These results seem pretty impressive indicating about 70% growth in the last 3 months (the last numbers I saw were 1,900 retailers and 900k active customers around the end of feb). So, I don't think there is much sign of things slowing down post Christmas.
    Also some nice new big US merchant integrations with Levi's & Ray-ban on-board. Exciting times ahead.

  4. #49
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    $300m capital raise and 2nd insider sell down:

    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190611/pdf/445r1f2dvzsxrm.pdf


    No surprises really.

    They need the money if they want to have any chance of reproducing the same success in the US as they had in Australia.

    Insiders selling down as they know just how risky and unlikely success overseas will be.

    It's a smart move raising money now. It was a good price and there is good demand for shares.

    Nothing's changed however, as there was no new information in the announcement.

    What's interesting is that most of these new institutional investors are likely to be old men, investing in a company for young women. Let's hope they know what they're doing, cause this an't soft money!

    -----------------------------------

    The focus recently has changed to the offline/in-store sales for the ANZ market, and expansion into the US market.

    To me this suggest that the online market in Australia/New Zealand has peaked. The in-store retail market, although significantly larger, does not align with their core market (millennial women) nor their platform as a technology company.

    Their business plan relies on being a market leading platform provider. They won't be able to survive as a business if their only source of income is a small percentage on sales or their only point of difference is that they are the "biggest". It will be a race to the bottom as other competitors continue to aggressively offer better pricing and service.

    The 'moat' and business model is very similar to Uber. A simple idea with the only point of difference is that they are the biggest and most recognizable. There's very little intellectual property in this business, besides the brand. Success seems to be about raising the most amount of money, so by the looks of it, Afterpay is winning for now.

    The expansion into the US market is essentially responsible for the lofty share price. It won't be until after Xmas, Jan/Feb 2020, until the real results will be known. More waiting. In the mean time that $300m will be burnt very quickly. Results will have to be spectacular to keep the story alive.

  5. #50
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    I wouldn't touch APT for personal reasons but I see that they are in the cross hair of AUSTRAC. If the Australians are investigating it for potential Money laundering/Counter Terrorism then what would the Americans do who are even more paranoid about this. I still remember the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 that was tagged on to a complete different bill and basically killed online poker.

    I believe they are way overvalued for the markets they are in and honestly I can't see them entering the US market successfully. The finance sector over there is very protective of its own.

    To all holders I hope you're happy with the gains (most likely) you got but you might want to think about whether the future is actually rosy for this company.

  6. #51
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    Naughty naughty, doing cap raising right before an investigation announcement.

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