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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Agree with all your points... but what if I told you there were 5 afterpays all gunning for the same end user (the customer using their debit, credit, what ever card) and merchants don't care about loyalty with any one provider so end up going with multiple/all of them? (given the technology these days is there to accept all of them - they are all basically the same)
    APT started first, doesn't mean it'll finish first.
    For Merchants, they only have the resources/inclination to integrate the top few providers. In-store integrations are costly, and involve training staff. Likewise consumers don't want the hassle of signing up to multiple services. They'll stick with the one or two major ones, which they trust, and many shop exclusively at only Merchants that provide them.

    For online shopping there is only so much real estate available through the checkout pages. The majority of online product pages in Australia have an Afterpay logo displayed predominantly on them.

    The larger transaction volume (GMV/TMV) processed through the top few providers, will compound their ability to detect fraud & build a trusted list of low risk customers. This will mean they can keep Merchant fees more competitive than lesser known 'interest-free' providers.

    Most merchants are also extremely conscious of providing a responsible service to their customers, and not laden them with debt & fees, or a poor experience.

    Afterpay has won Australia, with Zip second. The rest are just picking the scraps. I don't see this changing, the brand awareness for Afterpay is equivalent to an Uber, or Airbnb. Walk through a Westfield in Australia and it's Afterpay signs as far as the eye can see. Consumers are happy, why change?

    New Zealand is Afterpay and Laybuy.

    For large ticket items (>$1500) over longer installment periods, it's an entirely different game, one which Afterpay/Laybuy doesn't play in.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeybycrikey View Post
    I reckon APT need to be processing maybe $30 billion of payments per year (say within 5 years) to justify today's market cap of $6.7B. Currently they are doing $3.5B. Is there 10x growth available to them? Who knows. And can they keep taking 4% margin as time goes on?
    These are good questions.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post

    Charlie Munger always talks about the power of incentives. Both the customers love it, and the merchants love it, as it increases top line revenue.
    There's some truth to this. However, it's unknown weather this will play out in the long term. Merchants like myself do like it, however, it comes with a 6% fee, which is expensive. The "increases revenue" argument is valid, but there hasn't been any large third party studies to confirm this is true. I joined because I wanted to keep up with the latest technology and trends online. At the beginning there was lots of buzz around the "buy now pay later" model and having Afterpay available on your site was seen as a status symbol. Now the buzz has died down and I don't see it as important.

    I feel like customers maybe experiencing the same 'hangover effect'. Do customers really love Afterpay? Maybe. But I suspect a lot of the hype has gone and only a very small percentage of users are continuing to use the service regularly. This is my main argument, and Afterpay maybe trying to hide this by only reporting certain statistics and chasing after new growth to replace end users.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post

    Afterpay has won Australia, with Zip second. The rest are just picking the scraps. I don't see this changing, the brand awareness for Afterpay is equivalent to an Uber, or Airbnb. Walk through a Westfield in Australia and it's Afterpay signs as far as the eye can see. Consumers are happy, why change?
    Afterpay's brand is very strong. This is the reason why it's value is so high. However outside of Australia it's a different story. There's lots of competitors now. However, it does seem like they're doing well.

    My main attack isn't on Afterpay but on the industry itself. Afterpay just happens to be the largest and most valued.

    Basically, I'm saying this industry is going through the same thing as the Groupon trend experienced in the early 2010's. It's impact was over estimated and a bubble was formed. Consumers like new things but they're fickle and aren't loyal in the long term. Time will tell.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    There's some truth to this. However, it's unknown weather this will play out in the long term. Merchants like myself do like it, however, it comes with a 6% fee, which is expensive. The "increases revenue" argument is valid, but there hasn't been any large third party studies to confirm this is true. I joined because I wanted to keep up with the latest technology and trends online. At the beginning there was lots of buzz around the "buy now pay later" model and having Afterpay available on your site was seen as a status symbol. Now the buzz has died down and I don't see it as important.

    I feel like customers maybe experiencing the same 'hangover effect'. Do customers really love Afterpay? Maybe. But I suspect a lot of the hype has gone and only a very small percentage of users are continuing to use the service regularly. This is my main argument, and Afterpay maybe trying to hide this by only reporting certain statistics and chasing after new growth to replace end users.
    I see the overall system working as such that a certain percentage (say 10 to 20%) of consumers will always want to spread the cost with installments. However the more overall merchants that have now implemented it, the less special it is, and the less likely these consumers will seek you out to buy from you. Assuming overall consumer discretionary spending is limited at a fixed amount, it turns from an advantage having it in the beginning, to potentially just a disadvantage of not having it once it is ubiquitous. Genius really.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Afterpay's brand is very strong. This is the reason why it's value is so high. However outside of Australia it's a different story. There's lots of competitors now. However, it does seem like they're doing well.

    My main attack isn't on Afterpay but on the industry itself. Afterpay just happens to be the largest and most valued.

    Basically, I'm saying this industry is going through the same thing as the Groupon trend experienced in the early 2010's. It's impact was over estimated and a bubble was formed. Consumers like new things but they're fickle and aren't loyal in the long term. Time will tell.
    I remember the Groupon mania, fueled by a massive amount of unprofitable advertising spend to capture emails, to then spam them deals until they eventually got annoyed, unsubscribed & churned off. Groupon merchants also got frustrated making no money serving low value customers who likely never came back. The model was flawed to begin with.

    I do agree that the valuations for the BNPL companies on the ASX look extremely bubbley. And when the likes of Splitit (Israeli) and Sezzle (American) come to list exclusively on the ASX and not the NASDAQ, you can't not help but get concerned and want to run for the exits. But overall I lean towards this being a sustaining paradigm shift, and not just a fad. And currently it's a merchant land grab that is playing out.

    As a long term investor, I think I've backed the right horse, and am content on riding it out, even during the times it'll look to be massively overvalued, and the times it'll look to be undervalued (assuming the overall thesis remains intact.) But you're right time will tell!

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post
    I see the overall system working as such that a certain percentage (say 10 to 20%) of consumers will always want to spread the cost with installments. However the more overall merchants that have now implemented it, the less special it is, and the less likely these consumers will seek you out to buy from you. Assuming overall consumer discretionary spending is limited at a fixed amount, it turns from an advantage having it in the beginning, to potentially just a disadvantage of not having it once it is ubiquitous. Genius really.
    These 10% to 20% of consumers are basically young women who don't know how to budget properly. There's no legitimate reason to use Afterpay. Spreading the cost over a few extra weeks is just lazy and over the long run will cost more, as you're likely to spend more, and eventually get stung for late fees.

    Honest question, do you regularly use Afterpay? I'm guessing not cause you're a male and make investments. But more so, you're smart enough not to use it.

    Afterpay isn't a genuine finance product. It' some how found this weird niche that seems to work well for a certain demographic. However it's not sustainable in the long run as over time it will suffer from huge churn.

    The typical user behavior on the system is that a user will use it for a few months, then stop, with exception of the hardcore 1% of users. Afterpay then aggressively seeks out new users to cover up the loss of previous users. The bubble will pop soon. It's already popped in Australia, and now they're using the US and UK markets to fill the holes.

    As a merchant, I basically jumped on board to join the trend. Afterpay seemed to explode out of no where and one of my competitors had it so I decided to join up.

    However, I have not seen any genuine growth or surge of orders on the system over time. In other words, Afterpay's growth is coming from signing up new users and new merchants and not growing the market that already exists. It's hard to explain because that is the definition of growth, but it's phony growth. It's similar to "multi level marketing".

    If it was genuine growth, I would expect the percentage of orders on my Afterpay account to grow but I'm not seeing that in any significant way. The percentage of orders I'm getting is the same as last year almost.

    What's interesting, is that Afterpay hit the ground running, as it got so much media attention and social media exposure. So when I first signed up I got orders. And during the Chirstmas period I get lots. Now it's back to last years levels. It's not down, it's maybe even more, but not alot more, maybe like 10%-15% more than last year.

    The bottom line is that the true user numbers is 1% of what Afterpay says it is. However, 1% of 3.1 million is still a lot though but unlikely to sustain a multi-billion dollar valuation.
    Last edited by Ogg; 08-05-2019 at 11:01 PM.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    These 10% to 20% of consumers are basically young women who don't know how to budget properly. There's no legitimate reason to use Afterpay. Spreading the cost over a few extra weeks is just lazy and over the long run will cost more, as you're likely to spend more, and eventually get stung for late fees.
    I don't entirely disagree with this point, however instant gratification is a powerful motivator, and there are other motivations driving this consumer behavior at play, such as;

    - They use it when shopping online because they don’t want to outlay (risk) the full amount of money before the item arrives, and before they are sure it fits (if clothing.)

    - They use it because they don’t have all the money available right now to spend. It helps them not feel as guilty buying the more expensive better quality items they want and desire.

    - They use it because they are unsure of that unexpected bill that might pop up, so they can keep that money sitting in their bank account longer in case they need it.

    - They use it because they want to help hide the amount of money they spent from their partner in a given month (those with shared bank accounts.)

    - They use it online, because it saves them having to hunt around & punch in the numbers from their debit/credit card (like PayPal.)


    For young adults who don’t have a lot of money saved up, or frankly anyone living paycheck to paycheck (a lot of people) Afterpay is attractive.

    Some of the most popular new finance apps in the US app store right now are around extending small amounts of credit to users between their paycheck cycles, cheaply.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Honest question, do you regularly use Afterpay? I'm guessing not cause you're a male and make investments. But more so, you're smart enough not to use it.
    You're right, I generally wouldn't be using it if I wasn't invested (but I do, so I can understand the user experience & psychology of it.) I attach my credit card to my Afterpay account, and get to keep my money sitting in my bank account earning interest for longer.

    I'm not really the target demographic, but if I was just entering the work force, and didn't go through the hassle of applying for a credit card, Afterpay would help fill some of that utility, some of the time.

    I’ve spoken to people in my immediate circle who continue to use it all the time. Some who use it every once in awhile, and some not at all.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Afterpay isn't a genuine finance product. It' some how found this weird niche that seems to work well for a certain demographic. However it's not sustainable in the long run as over time it will suffer from huge churn.

    The typical user behavior on the system is that a user will use it for a few months, then stop, with exception of the hardcore 1% of users. Afterpay then aggressively seeks out new users to cover up the loss of previous users. The bubble will pop soon. It's already popped in Australia, and now they're using the US and UK markets to fill the holes.
    I don't particularly see that user behavior (stopping usage after a few months) reflected in any of Afterpay's numbers (at least not yet.) Curious where you're getting that impression from?

    Afterpay themselves have told us on January, that 1 in 4 millennials in Australia have used Afterpay (~1.8 Million.) They also say that 2.5 million users in ANZ are active users (source pg 2.) Then removing NZ from the equation (lets say remove 1/6th of the 2.5M figure) And assuming that 71% of users are millennials (pg.7) gives me a figure of 1.49M active Australian millennials that have transacted within the past 12 months, which is 82% of all millennials that have ever used it. Not bad.

    As well, 40% of the active user base are transacting each month (pg.10) The average spend per user in Australia has only kept increasing, having doubled from a couple years ago.

    In Australia at least, people are being presented the option to use it pretty much each and every time they get to the checkout, and when it costs the same, and there's no extra interest, I bet many will continue to use it.

    Likewise, the unit economics look healthy (pg.14). I believe they're expanding to US/UK, as the model works, not just because they are just trying to 'fill the holes'.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    As a merchant, I basically jumped on board to join the trend. Afterpay seemed to explode out of no where and one of my competitors had it so I decided to join up.

    However, I have not seen any genuine growth or surge of orders on the system over time. In other words, Afterpay's growth is coming from signing up new users and new merchants and not growing the market that already exists. It's hard to explain because that is the definition of growth, but it's phony growth. It's similar to "multi level marketing".

    If it was genuine growth, I would expect the percentage of orders on my Afterpay account to grow but I'm not seeing that in any significant way. The percentage of orders I'm getting is the same as last year almost.

    What's interesting, is that Afterpay hit the ground running, as it got so much media attention and social media exposure. So when I first signed up I got orders. And during the Christmas period I get lots. Now it's back to last years levels. It's not down, it's maybe even more, but not a lot more, maybe like 10%-15% more than last year.
    Interesting to hear your experience of it as a Merchant.

    However, overall that’s how it should work, Afterpay is predominantly growing off the back of the Merchants checkout flow. The more Merchants offering Afterpay, the more active users Afterpay reports, and the more transaction volume they process.

    As a Merchant, there will be some small additional user base being sent directly off the Afterpay platform (website, app) to you. But for the rest of your usual customers, they are just utilizing the service available (and hopefully spending a bit more, while doing so.)

    I do believe that a certain percentage of your customers will always be in a position of preferring to pay by installments, and that is reflected in your numbers being reasonably consistent since you first implemented it. And more likely during Christmas, when peoples budgets are especially stretched. If you're finding over time the overall percentage of total users checking out with Afterpay dropping (relative to other payment processors) then that would be a negative signal for the company.

    It is relatively early in the life of the company, and keeping an eye on the numbers reported by the company will be important to building an accurate picture (especially if/when Australia matures.)

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post
    - They use it when shopping online because they don’t want to outlay (risk) the full amount of money before the item arrives, and before they are sure it fits (if clothing.)
    There's more risk because now they owe money to a third party. Most merchants have good return policies online. I doubt customers are using Afterpay for this reason.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post

    - They use it because they don’t have all the money available right now to spend. It helps them not feel as guilty buying the more expensive better quality items they want and desire.
    This I agree with. It's the number one point Afterpay has being pushing.

    Afterpay has been pushing this point vigorously to both the investment community and merchants but has anybody really done any critical thinking about this independently?

    Credit cards were invented for this very purpose. Now Afterpay comes along and pushes this even further - but is doing another 4 installments really that beneficial? Are we going to see an "Afterpay of Afterpay"?

    In theory everybody doesn't have enough money. So why isn't Afterpay working for everyone? Why doesn't old, rich, men use this? They still shop online. Credit cards work for everybody, Afterpay doesn't, why?

    How much is this a trend VS how much is this actually working in the real world?

    When a new trend comes along, like Groupon, everybody jumps on board and tries it out. It takes a couple of years to build before it reaches peak, then another couple of years before the hype dies.

    You have to ask yourself, how revolutionary is Afterpay? Likewise how revolutionary was Groupon?

    If it only works for a certain demographic, you have to ask yourself why?

    Without repeating myself any further. I don't disagree that Afterpay does work. I'm saying it's not working the way the company says it does.

    Again, time will tell. But if you look throughout history, fads exist, especially on Wall Street.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post

    - They use it because they are unsure of that unexpected bill that might pop up, so they can keep that money sitting in their bank account longer in case they need it.
    This is the same as the previous point, splitting hairs here.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post
    - They use it because they want to help hide the amount of money they spent from their partner in a given month (those with shared bank accounts.)
    Come on.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post
    - They use it online, because it saves them having to hunt around & punch in the numbers from their debit/credit card (like PayPal.)
    There's credit card vaulting now. Also, the amount of payment gateways available today VS 5 years ago is amazing. In other words, competition.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post

    For young adults who don’t have a lot of money saved up, or frankly anyone living paycheck to paycheck (a lot of people) Afterpay is attractive.
    It's not people living paycheck to paycheck though. It's not young males either.

    It ONLY seems to be young women. This is the weird thing about this.

    What's even weirder, is that it seems to be middle class young white women. They're not poor, they have rich parents.

    This is what Afterpay is hiding. The truth.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post
    Some of the most popular new finance apps in the US app store right now are around extending small amounts of credit to users between their paycheck cycles, cheaply.
    Yeah agreed. Like I said before, there's a payment gateway boom going on. Lot's of players. But overall, good for Afterpay.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post
    You're right, I generally wouldn't be using it if I wasn't invested (but I do, so I can understand the user experience & psychology of it.) I attach my credit card to my Afterpay account, and get to keep my money sitting in my bank account earning interest for longer.

    I'm not really the target demographic, but if I was just entering the work force, and didn't go through the hassle of applying for a credit card, Afterpay would help fill some of that utility, some of the time.

    I’ve spoken to people in my immediate circle who continue to use it all the time. Some who use it every once in awhile, and some not at all.
    This is a huge red flag for yourself. You're only using it because you're invested and you take your friends word for it? You're not the target demographic either?

    MAJOR RED FLAG. You're basically in the dark.

    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post
    I don't particularly see that user behavior (stopping usage after a few months) reflected in any of Afterpay's numbers (at least not yet.) Curious where you're getting that impression from?

    Afterpay themselves have told us on January, that 1 in 4 millennials in Australia have used Afterpay (~1.8 Million.) They also say that 2.5 million users in ANZ are active users (source pg 2.) Then removing NZ from the equation (lets say remove 1/6th of the 2.5M figure) And assuming that 71% of users are millennials (pg.7) gives me a figure of 1.49M active Australian millennials that have transacted within the past 12 months, which is 82% of all millennials that have ever used it. Not bad.

    As well, 40% of the active user base are transacting each month (pg.10) The average spend per user in Australia has only kept increasing, having doubled from a couple years ago.

    In Australia at least, people are being presented the option to use it pretty much each and every time they get to the checkout, and when it costs the same, and there's no extra interest, I bet many will continue to use it.

    Likewise, the unit economics look healthy (pg.14). I believe they're expanding to US/UK, as the model works, not just because they are just trying to 'fill the holes'.
    Yeah, this is my main point - that I disagree with their statistics. Unfortunately I can't prove it.

    All I can say is that Big Review TV said the same thing. I questioned it on Hotcopper and got slammed by everyone there.

    The truth will come out eventually though.

    The funny thing is, is that if those statistics are true, I don't know why this isn't a $50B market cap company yet. The reason why it's not, is that the very smart insiders know it's false, whereas the retail and Australian investment community doesn't.

  7. #37
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    Great to see some discussion happening in this thread. It's difficult to extrapolate the experiences of individual merchants but good to hear them none the less.

    APT is not just a payment method. They says they are now the largest generator of leads after Google which is a massive competitive advantage for helping merchants to sell discretionary items. I'm still bullish although much seems to be priced in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShareFodder View Post
    They says they are now the largest generator of leads after Google
    This is what I'm talking about.

    I tried to find the source of this quote but it appears to just come from Mr Hancock on a SMH article.

    What does this even mean?

    Are they saying users go to Afterpay.com and search through the directory of listings, and then they complete a purchase on a merchants website? There's no way they are number two if this is the case. How would they even verify the data?

    According to Alexa.com, Afterpay's home page ranks 407 in Australia. (source: https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/afterpay.com )

    There's Ebay, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, Ozbargain, gumtree, and countless others that would rank far higher.

    The only way I could reconcile the figure is that they created some kind of 'in house survey' and did a 'drop down box', that asked a user something like, "Why did you decided to shop at X's website", and then they listed a few options, one of which would be Afterpay.

    If this is where they're getting their data from, then just lol. There's just no way Afterpay is 2nd in sales leads online.

    Seriously, this is fraud if they're making up statistics like that.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Seriously, this is fraud if they're making up statistics like that.
    Yes, you would think they'd have to be pretty dumb to make these statistics up, so I'm inclined to take them seriously. Major online retailers would know exactly where each customer arrived from (eg, afterpay marketing, google search or just browsing the retailer website) when a product is purchased so I don't think surveys are necessary to come up with this type of data. Ultimately, they will be able to charge a lot more than 4% if their marketing is creating sales out of thin air and selling out the latest dress or widget. They need to start a rewards program, that would turbo charge growth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShareFodder View Post
    Yes, you would think they'd have to be pretty dumb to make these statistics up, so I'm inclined to take them seriously. Major online retailers would know exactly where each customer arrived from (eg, afterpay marketing, google search or just browsing the retailer website) when a product is purchased so I don't think surveys are necessary to come up with this type of data. Ultimately, they will be able to charge a lot more than 4% if their marketing is creating sales out of thin air and selling out the latest dress or widget. They need to start a rewards program, that would turbo charge growth.
    So you're just taking the company's word for it. What ever they say must be true?

    What about the investors who believed Big Review TV's management. Are they fools for just relying on their word?

    So you're saying that there's just no need to have surveys because Retailers just know? Maybe this is the case, but if things are as good as is suggested, 4% does seem really low. If they are really generating this many leads, then 20% commission would be reasonable maybe even more. I wonder why they don't charge more? The answer is probably because they're not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Are they saying users go to Afterpay.com and search through the directory of listings, and then they complete a purchase on a merchants website? There's no way they are number two if this is the case. How would they even verify the data?

    According to Alexa.com, Afterpay's home page ranks 407 in Australia. (source: https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/afterpay.com )

    There's Ebay, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, Ozbargain, gumtree, and countless others that would rank far higher.
    Don't underestimate the use of the app, the demographic of Afterpay users are using the app, not the website. The large majority of Afterpay users have the app installed. e.g. It's usually ranking between 20 - 40th on the Apple NZ free apps rankings, along with the likes of Aliexpress, trademe app etc.

    The clicks off the Afterpay app to retailers have tracking codes attached -- unlike something like Instagram, which isn't friendly to anyone linking off their platform, and makes it much harder to attribute credit as a 'lead'.

    I take managements statements regarding 'second largest source of leads' as an anecdote from a number of their large fashion retailers.
    Last edited by zgnz; 20-05-2019 at 05:48 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zgnz View Post
    Don't underestimate the use of the app, the demographic of Afterpay users are using the app, not the website. The large majority of Afterpay users have the app installed. e.g. It's usually ranking between 20 - 40th on the Apple NZ free apps rankings, along with the likes of Aliexpress, trademe app etc.

    The clicks off the Afterpay app to retailers have tracking codes attached -- unlike something like Instagram, which isn't friendly to anyone linking off their platform, and makes it much harder to attribute credit as a 'lead'.

    I take managements statements regarding 'second largest source of leads' as an anecdote from a number of their large fashion retailers.
    Afterpay app is currently ranked number 81 in NZ.

    https://www.apple.com/nz/itunes/charts/free-apps/


    On first release the app debuted at number 1.

    https://www.afterpay.com/attachment/2/show

    So, after 2 years since it was first released it has slowly fallen back in the rankings.

    Yes, no doubt, lots of people installed the app during the hype that we saw over the last 18 months. The Android version is showing over 1m+ downloads. These are impressive numbers but the key is engagement and longevity.

    It's typical for apps to see a huge drop off in activate users. I suspect that the churn/uninstall rate for Afterpay app would be high.

    Has the company provided any other guidance or information regarding the app?

    If it does have a tracker code are these statistics publicly available or is it a trade secret that the company will not release?

    Again, lots of questions.

    Not saying that the app is bad. Just saying that it looks like the app experienced a huge following during the media buzz of 2018.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Afterpay app is currently ranked number 81 in NZ.

    https://www.apple.com/nz/itunes/charts/free-apps/


    On first release the app debuted at number 1.

    [...]
    Not saying that the app is bad. Just saying that it looks like the app experienced a huge following during the media buzz of 2018.
    I've just been looking at app rankings on App Annie (would post a link but you need a login). It looks like their app did reach number 1 in the Australian store, where it stayed for 3 days. It fell back since then, which I would expect but has almost never been out of the top 100 in the past 12 months, and has almost never been out of the top 5 in the shopping category.

    Screen Shot 2019-05-21 at 13.16.12.jpg

    (not sure how useful that graph will be, I have never posted an image here before)

    Performance in the US has been worse (as you might expect), with the app consistently placed 100-150 in the shopping category, and about 1500th overall, but slowly improving.

    I think the app store rankings are only new downloads so that would indicate some continued growth in users.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeybycrikey View Post
    I've just been looking at app rankings on App Annie (would post a link but you need a login). It looks like their app did reach number 1 in the Australian store, where it stayed for 3 days. It fell back since then, which I would expect but has almost never been out of the top 100 in the past 12 months, and has almost never been out of the top 5 in the shopping category.

    Screen Shot 2019-05-21 at 13.16.12.jpg

    (not sure how useful that graph will be, I have never posted an image here before)

    Performance in the US has been worse (as you might expect), with the app consistently placed 100-150 in the shopping category, and about 1500th overall, but slowly improving.

    I think the app store rankings are only new downloads so that would indicate some continued growth in users.
    It comes down to how you interpret the data.

    It hit number one on release which is great, but not unusual given how at the time there was lot of free press and promotion around Afterpay. Also, it's not unusual for highly anticipated apps to get a strong following at the beginning. However, looking at that graph you can see a dropped in 2019 compared to previous years so the trend is definitely down.

    What's strange is that you would think it would start low and build up to a high level, not the other way around.

    The weakness in the USA is likely because Afterpay hasn't benefited from the same free media exposure as it had in Australia/New Zealand during late 2017 and 2018.

    Let's not forget that downloads are only one metric. It doesn't tell us about user engagement. The company was quick to point out that it was the number 1 app on release but where are the updates since then? It's been almost 2 years now.

    The data reinforces my point that Afterpay experienced a surge in interest at the beginning but it has since lost that momentum.

    The stock price today is suggesting that Afterpay will experience similar success in the USA market as it did in Australia, but the data clearly says otherwise.

    The question isn't "are people using Afterpay", it's "are there enough people using it to justify a $6B market cap."

  15. #45
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    Jan 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    The stock price today is suggesting that Afterpay will experience similar success in the USA market as it did in Australia, but the data clearly says otherwise.
    Well, apparently as recently as April, Goldman told their clients.

    “Early signs of success in the US remain strong: APT has experienced a record month of US app downloads, website visitations numbers are growing and it continues to add more retailers. APT will likely need to invest in infrastructure (staff, marketing, customer service, etc.) to support this strong growth and, as a result, our earnings revisions are more muted than our top line upgrades.”

    And then in May, APT announced their $300m US receivables facility.

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