TUR - Turners & Growers

[Footsie]

Through $3 at last...

[winner69]

Even allowing for the bonus issue TUR looking a bit weak at the mo being more than 10% of its recent high.

Looking at a long term chart last time it reached a decent peak it almost halved in price over the next year or so .... surely not this time around?

[Footsie]

TUR have moved on since then

..... i'm confident Santa will deliver

i'd say realistically they shuld be able to deliver 15-20% profit growth this year and next
which means div growth too.

[Phaedrus]

W69, TUR seems to specialise in 50% retracements. The most recent one is marked here in blue. If this pattern continues, the current downtrend ought to reverse at about $2.29.

This is NOT a prediction - I'm not a Fibonacci type of guy.


(This chart has been corrected for the recent 1 for 5 bonus issue).

[winner69]

Interesting there was a period of consolidation at around the 50% mark when TUR went from 280 to 140 odd in 2005.

Fibonacci type of things based on things that happen in nature but amazing how often Fibonacci things pop up in stock charts

Where appropriate and there does seem to be regular cycles Fibonacci things always worth a look at

[Footsie]

nice head and shoulders top....

perhaps 2.35 will provide support.

i know there a few insto's keen on this stock
and with a p/e of 12.7 15-20% eps growth and 6% div its not expensive

[Lizard]

Many company annual reports are a word-for-word match with the prelim announcement, so of little interest beyond the glossy pics. However, some aren't, so it's often worth a quick flick. In this case, the comments of MD, Jeff Wesley, appear considerably brighter than the prelim Tony Gibbs version. Worth noting under outlook:

"The new year has started surprisingly well, with very satisfactory profits being generated in January and February"

Although bearish on the state of the global economy:

"...I believe the economic recovery in western countries, including New Zealand, will be another 2-3 years in the making"

And finally:

Domestic Markets all point to a much better 2010 than 2009. If ENZA International and ENZA Foods have a much better 2010, then it could prove a very profitable year indeed.

Worth noting that the 2009 result of $8.6m NPAT to equity holders looks to have been after $5.1m of forex losses included in operating expenses. In addition, there was a net gain of $3.3m in reserves arising from revaluations of property assets. Taking these into account, and a brighter outlook, TUR does not look as expensive at $1.46 as the superficial profit figures suggest - perhaps forward P/E of under 10.5?

Given P/S of 0.26 and Pr/NTA at 0.57 (with a large propoertion of asset value being covered by property and liquid assets), I suggest putting it back on the "buy" list for a recovery. Though, given their large holding, some might prefer to wait until GPG's plan for unlocking value from their shares emerges to consider any potential impact.

[Lizard]

Stuff - NZ Apple Growers in WTO Win

Probably not worth more than perhaps a brief sp blip for now, but could be a future positive for TUR in it.

[Lizard]

An amusing twist today as a note attached to the Notice of Meeting shows a shareholder has put forward a proposal for directors to request PWC to look at options for splitting up TUR to extract value... isn't this exactly what we'd have expected major shareholder, GPG, to be doing with TUR? Seems the shareholders are tired of waiting...

[Lizard]

HY result out today - seasonal business, so not easy to extrapolate to a FY forecast. Debt/cashflow swing wildly between halves too. Seems they are always full of big plans, yet so slow to show much for them - perhaps typical of most of the larger pies GPG seem to have had their fingers in for the past few years.

My best guess is for a forward P/E about 9 - 9.5 at $1.40 (excluding depreciation tax adjustments). Price to NTA reduced by the depreciation changes, but still about 0.66 - either their valuations are a little generous or they need to extract more value from their assets. Cheap but dull - and hard to get inspired. If their forecast for improved profit can be trusted, then perhaps they make a fair hold with an eye to FY turnaround...