TUR - Turners & Growers

[Greyhound]

quote:Originally posted by Raptor

There has been a bit of buying by directors and their wives lately. Do they know something that we don't?
TUR pays a 12 cent dividend in 2 weeks time but that can hardly be the reason.

Could be because(believe it or not) there is a shortage of apples this season-as much as 20% in one particular variety.That'll help the price per carton,not to mention the $.

[Phaedrus]

Here is an update of the chart posted on page 3 of this thread. Some more long-term indicators have been added, giving eight altogether. They are :-
1. Longterm trendline.
2. Directional Movement Indicator (40)
3. Variable Moving Average (50)
4. Relative Strength Index (60)
5. Slow Stochastic oscillator (100)
6. Simple Moving Average (105)
7. Exponential Moving Average (110)
8. Triangular Moving Average (125)

The blue arrows mark BUY signals - all of these separate indicators triggered within a few days and a few cents of each other. Since then, TUR has been rising at about 2% per week and is up 30% so far. Price action has now reached a previous resistance level.

The On Balance Volume clearly showed the "big money" getting out of TUR ahead of the slump in March 2005, but did not pick up the recent insider buying mentioned by Raptor. I guess smart money is not invariably big money. All too often we assume that these are one and the same.


Chart edited 30/4/06 to enable identification of individual moving averages. I received a complaint!

[Misc]

Shortage of apples ??? Where ?? Certianly not in key markets like Europe USA and Taiwan.
The returns should be better this year , but the apple industry is still fundamentally bankrupt !!

Misc

[Footsie]

I recently added this stock to my p/f.

It always gives me great confidence when Directors by substantial stakes. When people have their own money on the line, they'll always work harder.

When the div is paid, theres likely to be some weakness in s/p. perhaps back to 2.40

[Greyhound]

quote:Originally posted by Misc

Shortage of apples ??? Where ?? Certianly not in key markets like Europe USA and Taiwan.
The returns should be better this year , but the apple industry is still fundamentally bankrupt !!

Misc

Germany.

[Footsie]

Closed today above the 2.60 resistance level

[Phaedrus]

After firing off a bunch of "Buy" signals early this year, TUR has gone into a nice uptrend. There is now a confirmed trendline in place and price action breaking below this would give a "Sell" signal. (As would a break of the Trailing stop plotted in Magenta) A 50 day ema would be yet another suitable exit indicator. The 4 moving averages that provided such good entry points have been left behind and are too far below current price action to give timely exit signals. I charted so many different types of moving average to show that the type of ma you use is not critical. All 4 worked well and gave signals very close together.

The current trendline has a slope equivalent to TUR rising at a rate of over 100% annually. Clearly this is too steep to be sustained. I have got an exit strategy - have you?

[Footsie]

Phaedrus

Are you actually admitting you own this stock?
Because it would be the first time i've ever heard you say such a thing. A slip perhaps?

My strategy. sell when the price approaches my valuation. or if i feel the price is sufficiently overheated that it would be prudent to sell

[Phaedrus]

Yes, Footsie - I hold TUR. Whether I hold or not, the chart is the same!

The first time you've ever heard me admit to holding a specific stock? I guess you are a fairly new ShareTrader participant. I could give you plenty of examples where my position has been no secret. FBU, CAV, CEN, NPX, STU, WAM to name but a few. My exit from SCT was very public and quite gruelling! I once even listed every stock that I held both here and on the ASX. I think perhaps you have been sucked in by McDunks periodical ranting and chest-beating propaganda!

It's good that you have an exit strategy - what is your current valuation for TUR?

[Footsie]

I have actually been a member here since 2000
but i haven't been on all that often over that time, hence the number of posts and also why i don't know your trading history

anyway...

DCF valuation of $5.02

However, dont forget they have another $2.90 worth of property.

so if this were a grant samuel valuation the number would be more like $7.92


DCF of $5.02 gives an EV of $372m... and a current EV/EBITDA of 9.3x

Compare that to other similar businesses and its not expensive...

I know plenty of Aussie PE firms who'd pay 10x EV/EBITDA for this firm, plus then there is the value of property.

So why isnt TUR a takeover target....GPG would never sell, well not unless the offer was well north of $6 i'd say.