QEX - QEX Logistics

[sb9]

1H results not that great but more importantly strong start to 2H and positive outlook.

[Ace]

1H results not that great but more importantly strong start to 2H and positive outlook.

Really positive.

The quantity of milk powder product we are able to source from our New Zealand suppliers has nowtripled. The strong demand for this has been demonstrated in October, when profits for the monthwere at a similar level to the result for the entire HY2020, as well as in November to date, whenmonthly sales are likely to be the highest in QEX’s history.

So either 1) 24M in October alone in milk powder sales to generate said profit OR improved margins, or 2) 27M in line with total revenue of HY2020 for the single month alone, AND November till today, (still a few days to go) the MONTHLY sales are highest in QEX history (so higher than October so another 24-27M in revenue, and most likely a lot higher given the emphasis of highest revenue in QEX history). Does that sound correct or am I misinterpreting this?

On top of that a lot of catalysts in the second half including storage in Sydney, continued growth of Australian business, Devondale partnership to come to fruition, triple stock from suppliers able to be stocked, and demand exceeding expectations. What's not to like when from my inference (if correct) practically FY2019 revenue to be met by two months alone this second half and with plenty more time to go at PEAK season and growing! With a share price in FY2019 at similar revenues sitting at a peak of $1.5 and being now valued at $0.8 per share with still 4 months to go during PEAK season it seems pretty good, dare I say it, 'value'.

[forest]

https://figure.nz/chart/jPhn59ZSuhXH...pBTZ5MOLoajoBw

Looking at the above chart and forecast of infant formula exports for the next few years.

This is the main product QEX is exporting so as Ace said what is there not to like.

[Cadalac123]

100k shares sold off today.. insider sell off? who knows. got burnt hard on this stock
was going down for no reason and then get horrible news. I agree the latest announcement was really
good projection wise but I almost never want to touch this stock ever again after losing 50% (admittedly my first ever stock lol)

[Timesurfer]

100k shares sold off today.. insider sell off? who knows. got burnt hard on this stock
was going down for no reason and then get horrible news. I agree the latest announcement was really
good projection wise but I almost never want to touch this stock ever again after losing 50% (admittedly my first ever stock lol)

Yep, I took a significant hit on this one last year.
Looked promising on paper, but then with all the global politics and state of Fonterra I decided it better to park my money in a stock with upwardly mobile prospects. It may well bounce back in the near future but I suspect there are a few others waiting to cut their losses on the way up.

[Cadalac123]

Why are there reports always so shady. Impact of the coronovirus won't be known till May wtf? So the release date of a report is going to be when they can realise the impact of the issue, yeah sure..

[Brain]

From my perspective I appreciate the update. Good shareholder communication . Feb forecast met in the the first 10 days is exceptionally good news. I am a happy holder.

[Ggcc]

I only have a small amount of shares in this company, but am eager to get more if I can after the results announcement. I am now one who wants to wait for information before investing into new listings. If it all goes well I can see this being a huge share in a few years time

[Cadalac123]

The main issue in the previous half was said to be attributable to the parcels aspect of the company .

In this update we are graced with one mention of demand increasing and no financial update at all directly pertaining to the degree of improvement or anything.

[traineeinvestor]

I took a look at QEX and came away with mixed views.

Positives:

Potential growth in NZ/PRC trade
Management/founder own about 75% of the shares
Relationship with SF (SF is one of China's largest logistics companies and over the last few years I've seen them become the courier company of choice in Hong Kong)

Negatives:

Illiquid
Negative operating earnings in FY2019 (although positive in H12020)
Large jump in receivables over the last six months – query how big a lift in provisions will be needed
Large jump in borrowings over the last six months
Some disruption to business due to Covid-19, tempered by the possibility of a reboot of the China trade
No dividend to date (and I would not expect one in FY2020)

At the moment, I see less risk in FRE (held) or MFT than QEX in spite of the potential.