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  1. #661
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeslaGod View Post
    China has begun to lower interest rates/

    China were the leader's in elimination*

    China were the first to re open as the world went into lockdown in March 2020

    There economy/markets benefited from easy credit/low interest rates

    They were also the first to show signs of a slowing economy and deflation.

    NZ will follow suit in the next 12 months if not earlier on the long term of the yield curve (lower longer term interest rates)

    The US will soon follow after

    Negative interest rates mid decade for NZ and US/OZ.

    Robertson is screwed, short term inflation will only go higher hurting labours core voter's in the pocket.

    The extension of the boarder closure is only going to push inflation higher.

    The only way to drive short term inflation down for now is raise interest rates (painful for the middle voter's) and open the boarders to increase the labour constraints pushing down wages and prices.


    Both are deflationary and with an election 20 months out it's going to happen, people vote with there wallets.

    If you're struggling to pay 2.50 at the pump the last thing you are worried about is buying a house.
    Yes Inflation is going continue higher next year ... IMHO we will see Petrol over $3 ... Property modest growth but after such strong growth ... even 2-3% = $20K up etc
    "Don't believe a f'ing thing your government tells you."George Carlin
    “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it.”George Orwell

  2. #662
    Senior Member TeslaGod's Avatar
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    “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”


    Henry Ford

  3. #663
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    behind the paywall sorry.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...IEDIZ7K2CZC2A/

    Just an economists view a .5% rise in OCR and a further 1.25% increase during the year before inflation eases and RBNZ can cut rates again to prop up house prices.

    "Finally, falling house prices will reduce household wealth and provide an additional headwind to consumption growth," Udy said.

    That says it all the wealth effect, trickle down economics more fiat money at negative real rates to boost consumption growth, open up immigration as well, then turn around and express concern about climate change, what a f**ked up world we live in.

  4. #664
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeslaGod View Post
    “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”


    Henry Ford
    Smart man Henry Ford.

  5. #665
    Senior Member TeslaGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    behind the paywall sorry.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...IEDIZ7K2CZC2A/

    Just an economists view a .5% rise in OCR and a further 1.25% increase during the year before inflation eases and RBNZ can cut rates again to prop up house prices.

    "Finally, falling house prices will reduce household wealth and provide an additional headwind to consumption growth," Udy said.

    That says it all the wealth effect, trickle down economics more fiat money at negative real rates to boost consumption growth, open up immigration as well, then turn around and express concern about climate change, what a f**ked up world we live in.
    I already forecast this Aaron.

    I didn't become a rich prick on my good looks.

  6. #666
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeslaGod View Post
    I already forecast this Aaron.

    I didn't become a rich prick on my good looks.
    You even forecasted negative rates.

    At a guess it sounds like you became rich thanks to loose monetary policy and low interest rates driving up asset prices and helping anyone taking risks with debt. A process that has been continuing for the last 30 odd years. It might be possible that this could change and we are reaching the end of a long term debt cycle, but it seems unlikely monetary policy will change. Change will have to come from the people getting screwed over. For example the USA is ahead of us in this regard. The deplorables in the USA, have worked out neither party is working in their favour and Trump promised them something new, unfortunately he is a liar.

    As to whether you are a prick, I don't know how to set up a poll but it would be interesting to get the votes from the general public on this site to confirm or deny.

  7. #667
    Senior Member TeslaGod's Avatar
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    No/ there is one last cycle.

    It all ends around 2030

    And a new currency will replace the dollar and the debt.

    If we can survive the impending war that will eventually happen (as has happened since the beginning of the long term debt cycle)
    Last edited by TeslaGod; 16-01-2022 at 11:54 AM.

  8. #668
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    If this article is correct then full employment should not be much of a consideration for Adrian. Price stability should be his focus. Reading more articles about supply side inflation lately. A bit like the bulls*it reason Bascand gave for house price inflation. Not enough supply, monetary policy played a bit part. That said if the wealth effect works and people buy and consume more isn't that demand side inflation creating a supply side issue?

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127...ty-and-profits

    I think we have all heard the argument that if employees are not happy with their wages then they can go and find a job elsewhere. Maybe they have.

    Maybe NZ businesses should be investing in young people in NZ and training staff and paying higher wages, very costly but long term is it better than importing cheap labour from the Phillipines or India.

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