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  1. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    a 2% loss of customers plus a likely reduction in people going out anyway.

    Sorry I might be getting off topic.
    Those figures are so not correct. It's 2% of confirmed cases. But not 2% of population. Diamond Princess, 3770 people on board, 10 deaths. 0.265% death rate there. That is a population rate.
    But as Peat said, not the correct thread.

  2. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Those figures are so not correct. It's 2% of confirmed cases. But not 2% of population. Diamond Princess, 3770 people on board, 10 deaths. 0.265% death rate there. That is a population rate.
    But as Peat said, not the correct thread.
    Sorry can't help myself.
    Thanks for calling out my fake news with the 2%. Although your analysis seems overly simplistic as I don't think everyone on board caught the virus but thanks for the optimistic outlook.

    As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.

    Extrapolating those numbers to China, the team estimates that 1.1 percent of symptomatic cases there turned deadly. Considering asymptomatic cases drops that ratio to about 0.5 percent in China, the team calculates.


    The Diamond Princess seems like a good way to judge how deadly the virus is as they tested everyone. If the above is not also fake news then 2% is only for those who become symptomatic. Including asymptomatic people this drops to 1% so half I what I said. and even at .5% in China not quite double what you are suggesting.
    I stand corrected but you might want to get your facts straight as well.

  3. #163
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    Reading the last post I can see why macduffy is shepherding me around to a relevant thread.

    Adrian Orr and low interest rates and easy money is really getting some headlines lately.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...DJ7NCDFPGUMYA/

    I would have voted Social Credit if I thought it was a good idea. I guess the reserve bank buying the govt bonds off the banks provides some income for the trading banks while interest rates are so low.

    Adrian Orr has his hands tied as he has suggested. The govt is the only one who can provide real change. Reduce the Reserve Banks inflation target to zero%.

    I am also confused Adrian Orr says the interest rate suppression is to ensure full employment yet in the news I hear that we import workers for the fishing industry, harvesting and farming. Also I heard a plan to train inmates to drive as we have a driver shortage. Someone is bullshi**ing. Is it Adrian or business leaders, or is Adrian seeing something worse coming down the road.

    Economists predictions earlier this year of a 10% fall in house prices don't appear to have been that prescient either.

  4. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Reading the last post I can see why macduffy is shepherding me around to a relevant thread.

    Adrian Orr and low interest rates and easy money is really getting some headlines lately.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...DJ7NCDFPGUMYA/

    I would have voted Social Credit if I thought it was a good idea. I guess the reserve bank buying the govt bonds off the banks provides some income for the trading banks while interest rates are so low.

    Adrian Orr has his hands tied as he has suggested. The govt is the only one who can provide real change. Reduce the Reserve Banks inflation target to zero%.

    I am also confused Adrian Orr says the interest rate suppression is to ensure full employment yet in the news I hear that we import workers for the fishing industry, harvesting and farming. Also I heard a plan to train inmates to drive as we have a driver shortage. Someone is bullshi**ing. Is it Adrian or business leaders, or is Adrian seeing something worse coming down the road.

    Economists predictions earlier this year of a 10% fall in house prices don't appear to have been that prescient either.
    Personally think the Govt / RBNZ are increasingly wanting to keep property from stalling as that would be far to close to falling in value and as majority of young adult kiwis property mad an ticked to the eyeballs the mandate is to keep the madness flowing while spewing how hard your working to help First time home buyers ... it’s the old kick the can down the road
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  5. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Personally think the Govt / RBNZ are increasingly wanting to keep property from stalling as that would be far to close to falling in value and as majority of young adult kiwis property mad an ticked to the eyeballs the mandate is to keep the madness flowing while spewing how hard your working to help First time home buyers ... it’s the old kick the can down the road
    It used to be you take on debt you take on risk but as you say people have an expectation central banks will ensure/insure there is capital gains and that interest rates will get cut each time there is trouble. Currently they are gauranteeing 2% per annum but as all the inflation they are creating is in asset prices you are getting 7%. Who needs yield with capital gains like this. All the while people without assets are not really waking up to the fact that monetary policy has/is destroying any chance they have to get ahead as asset prices soar at double the rate of wage inflation for the last 20 years. This is only sustainable as interest rates have been steadily dropping over this time and people can take on more debt to make up the difference, but we are now at or near zero. Savings are losing 2-3% in purchasing power each year currently, how do you save for a house deposit?

    You might get a handout from this govt but you won't get a hand up as that would require a rethink on monetary policy and whether constantly rising prices is actually a good thing.
    Last edited by Aaron; 08-12-2020 at 09:12 AM.

  6. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Savings are losing 2-3% in purchasing power each year currently, how do you save for a house deposit?
    You have to have equity exposure even if you have a short horizon. (which is counter to standard Mary Holm type advice)
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  7. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    You have to have equity exposure even if you have a short horizon. (which is counter to standard Mary Holm type advice)
    Possibly but holding cash at the moment is contrarian a financial market meltdown would make help cash although I can't see it happening.

    Look at this about the third to last paragraph.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7NZMDY6XRAYJY/

    "Second, the Government should rethink its monetary policy instructions. The case for lifting the rate of consumer price inflation to 2 per cent per year in a post-Covid world seems to be close to non-existent. The costs are too high and the benefits are mainly wishful thinking."

    Although this is from the NZ initiative so now I am unsure if I am a heartless monster or not.

  8. #168
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    Following on from the NZX , maybe they went for another target ......
    Reserve Bank responding to illegal breach of data system

    10 January 2021

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua is responding with urgency to a breach of one of its data systems.
    A third party file sharing service used by the Bank to share and store some sensitive information, has been illegally accessed.
    Governor Adrian Orr says the breach has been contained, and the Bank is treating the matter with the highest priority, and acting with urgency.
    “We are working closely with domestic and international cyber security experts and other relevant authorities as part of our investigation and response to this malicious attack. The nature and extent of information that has been potentially accessed is still being determined, but it may include some commercially and personally sensitive information.”
    “The system has been secured and taken offline until we have completed our initial investigations. It will take time to understand the full implications of this breach, and we are working with system users whose information may have been accessed. Our core functions remain sound and operational.”

  9. #169
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Fallout from data leak ...Taxpayers Union questions Orr suitability for the job

    https://mailchi.mp/9f8a4889e6aa/orrs...ng-but-upfront
    . To say extreme valuations are “justified” is also to say that long-term market losses are “justified.” .

  10. #170
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    Maybe I am being too harsh on Adrian, I see the $NZ has been rising against the $US and the TWI since 2020 despite his low interest rates and easy money. His actions must be less retarded than other central banks namely Japan, China and the USA. In a global currency war I guess wealth and income equality as well as social mobility are victims.

    NZ's success regarding the virus has also helped. Nice to think that putting people before profits has produced a better result for just about everyone rather than if we had half ar*ed it like the UK USA etc.

    Also note in the herald today new rules coming regarding peak livestock to cut our emissions.

    If they can establish peak livestock numbers perhaps they can come out with a peak human number for a country this size. It would seem more important as there is a strong argument that it is human caused climate change.

    Seems like such bu****** sometimes even though the intentions of saving the planet seems a good idea it comes across as a bunch of townies wanting the rural sector to make all the sacrifices so they can continue to fill the cities with more and more people. Have a look at the whole basis for our economy. More and more consumption for more and more growth in a virtuous upward spiral. Change that model and you might get a more sustainable economy.

    Rodd Carr is no doubt a very smart guy but I suspect he could win more people over if he shaved and removed the Tiki then he might appear less like an aging hippy.
    Last edited by Aaron; 23-02-2021 at 09:01 AM.

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