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  1. #1231
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    An economist for a fund manager expects Adrian to make a rate cut of 1%. Much like bank economists and real estate experts. I hope Adrian has the stones to do the right thing and get rid of the dead wood and let markets including the housing market correct.

    Poor Adrian is being blamed for the recession, low interest rates and easy money is the only thing people understand. Perhaps they should move to Zimbabwe not sure what their interest rates are but I know they have had plenty of money printing.

    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...2279baad&ei=18

    Would crypto currencies even exist without all the liquidity (money printing). What a massive waste of power. Fortunately not a lot of time or effort involved speculating in crypto currencies.
    Last edited by Aaron; 22-03-2024 at 09:19 AM.

  2. #1232
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    An economist for a fund manager expects Adrian to make a rate cut of 1%. Much like bank economists and real estate experts. I hope Adrian has the stones to do the right thing and get rid of the dead wood and let markets including the housing market correct.

    Poor Adrian is being blamed for the recession, low interest rates and easy money is the only thing people understand. Perhaps they should move to Zimbabwe not sure what their interest rates are but I know they have had plenty of money printing.

    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...2279baad&ei=18

    Would crypto currencies even exist without all the liquidity (money printing). What a massive waste of power. Fortunately not a lot of time or effort involved speculating in crypto currencies.
    I would be very surprised to see that.
    I've been calling for rate cuts for ahead of the market for some time, I.e first 3 - 6 months of 2024. Perhaps a 50bp cut, but I think more likely 25bps as inflation although a lagging indicator is still a lot higher than the 1 - 3% target band.

    That ANZ Economist who called for a rate rise last month got the publicity she was looking for, but now just looks foolish.

  3. #1233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    I would be very surprised to see that.
    I've been calling for rate cuts for ahead of the market for some time, I.e first 3 - 6 months of 2024. Perhaps a 50bp cut, but I think more likely 25bps as inflation although a lagging indicator is still a lot higher than the 1 - 3% target band.

    That ANZ Economist who called for a rate rise last month got the publicity she was looking for, but now just looks foolish.
    I wish my memory was better, but I don't recall a lot of strident calls for rates rises when house prices were going gang busters and mortgage rates were 2-3%, just endless conversation about how much everyone was making and how high prices could go. Adrian was talking about the banks preparing for negative interest rates without so much as a peep from the experts about how insane that would be.

    Winner might have suggested the RBNZ was a bit off but I do not recall many others.

    The financialisaton of the economy has resulted in a lot of pointless activity such as property speculation, crypto currencies and day trading. Perhaps savers and investors should get a return on investment and the dead wood speculators can go for a long overdue skate.

    Although that might be bad news for my favourite online forum.
    Last edited by Aaron; 22-03-2024 at 11:28 AM.

  4. #1234
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    Not RBNZ related but as I have hijacked a thread I will try not to spread my bs too far. The jist of my post is Anti growth and anti immigration so sort of follows along with what the RBNZ's mandate is, growth, growth, growth, inflation, inflation, inflation.

    Interesting that I am not alone in being concerned at the sheer numbers of immigrants coming in.

    https://www.interest.co.nz/public-po...grant-arrivals

    I vaguely recall reading somewhere that when things go bad people always blame the immigrants but perhaps we should blame the National and Labour parties as they are responsible.

    https://www.interest.co.nz/public-po...grant-arrivals

    Interesting conclusion that I would whole heartedly endorse. Still cannot see why successive govts want to f*ck the country up with overcrowding, other than perhaps it makes GDP look good.

    The logical thing for the Government to do right now would be - as far is is practically possible - close the border for new arrivals while there is a 'reset'. But of course that won't happen under this Government.

    What we will likely get is the running of a line that says fewer people will want to come as our economy languishes and as unemployment starts to grow.

    But I ask you, look at where most of the new non-NZ arrivals are coming from. For a lot of people, it is not that they want to COME to NZ. It is that they want to LEAVE where they are. And that won't change. As long as people can come here they will come.

    We've already given ourselves a huge bout of future indigestion by the massive swathes of people that have come here since August 2022 regardless of what happens from now.

    This needs decisive action. When you are in a hole, stop digging.
    Last edited by Aaron; 28-03-2024 at 09:58 AM.

  5. #1235
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    Adrian is a clown, he is doing well and does not appear to appreciate what a failure he is, unfortunately it is hurting a lot of NZers, not the crowd he hangs with obviously, they are more than happy with what he has done and continues to do. He needs a conscience, some self awareness or needs to be removed as RBNZ Governor.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EWESIMOGWA2TU/

    Inflation is evil says Adrian, buts wants stable and constant inflation. Apart from creating a lot of it, he also has a govt mandate to create 1-3% inflation. Why create something he describes as evil?. Where is the proof that constant inflation is better for society who did the studies and where can I find them?
    Last edited by Aaron; 29-03-2024 at 09:42 AM. Reason: bullet too much

  6. #1236
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    Comment on X after Madison’s interview with Orr -

    We cross to ex Labour Minister Grant Robertson, after delivering such terrible results as Gov, why did you reappoint him for another 5 years?.

    Robo: Non delivery is a key matrix of our govt & in terms of that he excelled at that.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #1237
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    Japan a guiding light regarding money printing and interest rate suppression. First start with banks lending crazy amounts in the 1980s and pumping asset prices. Then 30 years later Govt debt is 255% of GDP and interest rates can never rise but they fought off deflation. A real guiding light for other economies. I like that they resisted the urge to open the immigration spigot to fight deflation.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-...sons/103653912

  8. #1238
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    Damien Grant gets stuck into our Adrian

    Conclusion -

    The reality is, we don’t, and it is time for some university somewhere to offer him a position. Somewhere. Anywhere.

    Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr’s continued tenure is intolerable, Damien Grant says
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350...ien-grant-says
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1239
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    Liam Dann explaining why deflation would be so terrible. Maybe it is like inflation a little bit is not so bad and it will create a wealth effect as people's money goes further as prices fall but too much leads to a downward spiral.

    Liam explains the great danger of deflation is that everyone will starve to death as we all stop buying food while we wait for prices to fall further. What an idiot.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NQ3ZGCEEOFIMQ/

    Lucky for Liam we have Adrian in charge of inflation. The only thing going down in value on his watch is the purchasing power of a dollar. Sadly a lot of people trade time for dollars, not so sadly some people borrow dollars to buy assets. Maybe that is the real reason deflation is so bad, it gets harder to pay back loans and the negative effects of leverage can be huge much like the wealth increases we see under Adrian.

    Maybe Liam's not an idiot, maybe he is just not honest.

    Hopefully Adrian will be able to throw him a bone today.

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