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  1. #611
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    Quote Originally Posted by smpl View Post
    The RBNZ is going to hike 50bp today. All locals banks are saying 25bps....
    It's a line call ,however as the next meeting isn't till Feb I agree with you . The market pricing for FEB is a 1.25% OCR so either 50 today or if not 50 in Feb.
    Time will tell, still a world of pain out there with many businesses across the country.

  2. #612
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    It's a line call ,however as the next meeting isn't till Feb I agree with you . The market pricing for FEB is a 1.25% OCR so either 50 today or if not 50 in Feb.
    Time will tell, still a world of pain out there with many businesses across the country.
    .25% or nothing would be my guess.

  3. #613
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Interesting article about economics, the main point is.

    “There is no science, it's all made up, right?” Eaqub says.
    “I mean, it’s whatever works at the time, and it keeps changing.”

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127...bout-inflation

    The rest seems a confused mish mash confirming my view that economics is coming across as a load of bulls**t twisted to whatever suits your view.

    David McLeish from Fisher Funds suggesting raising the price of capital will only add to the rising prices of everything else.
    I am no economist but isn’t it the burden of interest rates that causes consumers to reign in their spending and slow inflation. Isn't a rising cost of capital that causes investors to allocate capital more carefully into things that will provide goods or services required by society.

    Raf Manji suggests raising interest rates will lead to more inflation, and raise the price of petrol at the pump. I would have thought a rising $NZ reduces the cost of imports but I lack Raf’s intelligence so must be wrong.

    I think it is Dileepa who suggests raising interest rates will cause a great contraction in economic activity. I agree with him on this point.

    They ask why capital isn’t going into something useful like business rather than buying houses off each other at higher and higher prices.
    Why would you invest in a business that takes effort and thought when owning a house, lets say $800,000 house going up 20% p.a. (thanks to easy money and low interest rates) earning $160,000 without tenants why would you invest anywhere else.

    What I read is that raising interest rates according to these geniuses is bad no matter what happens although it would be interesting to see if they extrapolate this view to the future as more and more debt needs a bigger and bigger central bank response each time the economy tries to correct. They probably see negative interest rates as a sensible solution in the next crash. Why do we even listen to economists, they are all over the place but the main message is low interest rates and moah money.

    Why don’t they just say “I am all right Jack” don’t rock the boat on asset prices I own some. The poor can pay through a loss of social mobility and the inflation tax we are imposing on them through loose monetary policy and low interest rates it is regressive so we won’t feel it as bad.

    Effectively they are saying f**k the poor. What they will say is that in a depression the poor will suffer more but the reality the poor will suffer either way, it is just that they rich don’t suffer while crazy monetary policy inflates assets.
    You put alot of time and effort into this post.

    What has this rant achieved?

    Monetary gain: 0%

    Dopamine rush to make you feel better:100%

    If you choose to not participate in the system

    You are saying "I want nothing "

    And what is the system going to give you in return?

    Nothing.

    Because you and the poor produce nothing.

    Is it starting to sink in?

  4. #614
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeslaGod View Post
    You put alot of time and effort into this post.

    What has this rant achieved?

    Monetary gain: 0%

    Dopamine rush to make you feel better:100%

    If you choose to not participate in the system

    You are saying "I want nothing "

    And what is the system going to give you in return?

    Nothing.

    Because you and the poor produce nothing.

    Is it starting to sink in?
    I was worried you had left the thread.

    Good to see you back. I had a good laugh at your post, much appreciated.

  5. #615
    Senior Member TeslaGod's Avatar
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    Minutes from the November Fed meeting show members concerned about inflation and willing to tighten policy should it continue to run hot.
    The meeting summary noted that the officials would be willing to raise interest rates “sooner than participants currently anticipated.”


    You can make money in any market Bull or Bear with

    Cash
    Hedges
    Puts
    Shorts

    Following mainstream media and there drivel that they vomit out blind's you to what you should actually be reading and spending your valuable time on .

    You only have a limited years in your life.

    I suggest to you Arron that you use it wisely.

  6. #616
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeslaGod View Post
    Minutes from the November Fed meeting show members concerned about inflation and willing to tighten policy should it continue to run hot.
    The meeting summary noted that the officials would be willing to raise interest rates “sooner than participants currently anticipated.”


    You can make money in any market Bull or Bear with

    Cash
    Hedges
    Puts
    Shorts

    Following mainstream media and there drivel that they vomit out blind's you to what you should actually be reading and spending your valuable time on .

    You only have a limited years in your life.

    I suggest to you Arron that you use it wisely.
    I would have to know the meaning of life to work out how best to spend my time. Maybe you could enlighten me?

  7. #617
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I would have to know the meaning of life to work out how best to spend my time. Maybe you could enlighten me?
    Obviously no good on the real tough questions then.

    But keeping to the thread.

    An economist has called Adrian Orr "spineless" hard not to agree.
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127...-top-economist

    In some of the most outspoken comments levelled at the Reserve Bank in recent times, Olsen said it had “doubled down on its spineless approach” by signalling “considered steps” in the OCR in future, when that approach risked letting inflation become more entrenched.

    And today we have Adrian the man himself trying to talk down the housing market while keeping interest rates low.
    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/home...?ocid=msedgntp

    Good luck with that Adrian, obviously not your fault if people chose to become heavily indebted to get into an over inflated housing market that you might be largely responsible for inflating despite claims of only playing a "bit" part.
    Actions speak louder than words, maybe making putting price/currency stability front and centre and less focus on pushing up asset prices would put the RBNZ back on top as a world leader for central banks.

  8. #618
    Senior Member TeslaGod's Avatar
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    I wouldn't take advice from Brad Olson, he's not a "top" economist.

    He's a 24 year old man child who couldn't invest a basic understanding of macro economics.

    He's another "media celebrity economist" who doesn't know anything but love's the attention from mainstream media vomit.

    It's the reason why he still rents and eats too much Donuts.
    Last edited by TeslaGod; 25-11-2021 at 01:41 PM.

  9. #619
    Senior Member TeslaGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I would have to know the meaning of life to work out how best to spend my time. Maybe you could enlighten me?
    It's not a matter of me enlightening you.

    It's a matter of you wanting to change.

    I'll give you a tip

    Gold is used by the extreme wealthy to protect there wealth, not necessarily grow it .

    If you're going to invest in gold, you need to offset this by going risk on in other assets like growth equities or BTC.

    I'm sure gold is nice to look at but it's not going to increase your wealth any time soon.

  10. #620
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    A few posts back there was an article with a number of economists explaining why raising interest rates is bad and will likely increase inflation rather than decrease it although I was always taught low rates and easy money would increase inflation.

    Fortunately for us Turkey has an amazing president in Erdogan who has cut interest rates and surprisingly inflation has increased. Who could have seen that coming.
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...rishing-turkey

    Maybe some lesson there for other world central bankers who are trying to inflate their way out of a debt problem.

    TeslaGod that last tip is probably not a bad tip but unfortunately I am extremely risk averse and conservative which inevitably holds me back. BTC is really a gamble on peoples faith much like gold admittedly but gold has a longer history as a currency.

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