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  1. #1
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    Default ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

    I found this interview with him very helpful and fresh and covering lots to do with our investments and where to from here for us and the planet..

    Listenduration 35′ :04″

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    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Orr can’t be any worse than Wheeler even though he has ‘endorsed’ Wheeler’s recent actions and outlook.

    The RB is fueling an inflation problem that will require numerous hikes in the future resulting in an inevitable recession in 2019/2020

    They seem blindfolded with some idealistic views at the moment. I hope Orr can see what might happen and start acting now before it’s too hard and all too late

    Good luck to him ....seems a nice enough guy.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Orr seems to want to get involved in ‘populism’ - not a good thing for the Governor of the RBNZ

    The carry ons in Aussie banks one bandwagon he has jumped on

    A week or so ago he wanted us all to know that New Zealand Banks were different and there wasn’t anything to worry about but this week He was “demanding” answers from NZ banks (even though he has no remit to do so)

    Probably didn’t want to miss out on being on the band wagon and even worse may have even been egged on by Robertson

    Not a good look
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Orr can’t be any worse than Wheeler even though he has ‘endorsed’ Wheeler’s recent actions and outlook.

    The RB is fueling an inflation problem that will require numerous hikes in the future resulting in an inevitable recession in 2019/2020

    They seem blindfolded with some idealistic views at the moment. I hope Orr can see what might happen and start acting now before it’s too hard and all too late

    Good luck to him ....seems a nice enough guy.
    Prescient view from April 2018 although maybe a bit early.

    Others joining in today in the herald.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...UNVSSSLLC5LBE/

    To quote Steven Joyce, although I don't know much about him other than he seemed reasonable and level headed when in power and took a dildo to the face like a champion.

    Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr is not doing himself any favours with his revisionist approach to the house price issue. Not so long ago, he was saying increasing asset prices, including house prices, were a feature and not a bug in the bank's policy response to the pandemic because they make consumers feel wealthier and spend more. This week he suggested his bank's policy settings have only a minor impact on house prices.
    He actually has quite a bit to answer for. The bank has been consistently under-forecasting increases in inflation and house prices, and overforecasting unemployment. While no one is expecting perfection in these times, the ongoing nature of the forecasting issues is concerning.


    Tony Alexander also a well known commentator on the housing market.

    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/40472

    The Reserve Bank governor recently said that his organisation has played only a small part in the 35% jump in average NZ house prices since just before the country went into lockdown last year. I disagree. Record low interest rates have been the main driver of soaring house prices and by not taking away excessively loose monetary conditions from early this year the Reserve Bank has denied home ownership to thousands of young Kiwis and forced others to take on board eye-watering debt.

    The governor was right in his claim that lack of dwelling supply growth has been a factor in causing house prices to rise strongly relative to household incomes. But only over the long term and not the past year-and-a-half to two years.


    I was starting to feel like a fringe loopy but if winner69, Steven Joyce and Tony Alexander (uses the word negligence in the article heading) can see it, how does Adrian manage to keep his job. I would guess that there is no economist out there to replace him as no economist would be willing to suggest raising interest rates and govts practicing austerity. Also there would not be a majority of voters agreeing with this.

    So I guess more of the same until it is more obvious that it is no longer working to the benefit of the majority of the people.

    Mohamed El Erian also in this mornings herald as well with an opinion piece but criticizing the Federal Reserve for much the same thing.

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    If inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, what is Janet Yellen talking about.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...VSTCSG7SHO2FY/

    Covid is responsible for inflation in Amercia??? I though excessive money printing may have played a "bit part". Is Janet not also culpable as head of the Federal Reserve with ultra loose policy and now as treasury secretary with trillion dollar deficits. Are they deluded or are they lying?

    It beggars belief but central bankers will need to divert blame because if people catch on they will be and should be very angry.

    Meanwhile back in NZ.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...E3LG6IA5VT464/

    Ha's is the second major departure to be announced by the Reserve Bank in recent months.
    Long-serving Deputy Governor and General Manager Financial Stability Geoff Bascand announced in September that he will leave the RBNZ in January.

    They don't say why they are leaving which would be good to know.
    Last edited by Aaron; 15-11-2021 at 01:23 PM. Reason: additional nz article

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    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Orr can’t be any worse than Wheeler even though he has ‘endorsed’ Wheeler’s recent actions and outlook.

    The RB is fueling an inflation problem that will require numerous hikes in the future resulting in an inevitable recession in 2019/2020

    They seem blindfolded with some idealistic views at the moment. I hope Orr can see what might happen and start acting now before it’s too hard and all too late

    Good luck to him ....seems a nice enough guy.
    Posted August 2018

    Seemed to have come true .... even if in an unexpected way.

    Orr wil go down in history as the worst RBNZ Governor we've had ... think I even said that in 2018 as well
    Last edited by winner69; 24-01-2022 at 07:37 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Posted August 2018

    Seemed to have come true .... even if in an unexpected way.

    Orr wil go down in history as the worst RBNZ Governor we've had ... think I even said that in 2018 as well
    I have given you credit in past posts for predicting the March 2020 downturn years before it happened, but they kicked the can down the road once more so the March 2020 downturn was only very brief.

    Jeremy Grantham has called a lot of crashes but sometimes he can be a few years too early, although his latest statement ramps up what he said a year ago.

    p.s I think Jeremy has been pretty good at calling the bottoms as well as the tops.
    Last edited by Aaron; 24-01-2022 at 09:29 AM. Reason: pointing out how good Jeremy is top and bottom

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    What happened to Logen Ninefingers posts this morning?? He had a couple of what I thought were relevant posts about how central banks preventing every recession is not a great idea.

    can you delete posts??

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    What happened to Logen Ninefingers posts this morning?? He had a couple of what I thought were relevant posts about how central banks preventing every recession is not a great idea.

    can you delete posts??
    Looks like all my posts back to October got deleted.

  10. #10
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Orr can’t be any worse than Wheeler even though he has ‘endorsed’ Wheeler’s recent actions and outlook.

    The RB is fueling an inflation problem that will require numerous hikes in the future resulting in an inevitable recession in 2019/2020

    They seem blindfolded with some idealistic views at the moment. I hope Orr can see what might happen and start acting now before it’s too hard and all too late

    Good luck to him ....seems a nice enough guy.
    Post No 2 on this thread from 2018

    I was wrong - Orr has turned out worse than Wheeler

    And my comments were pre-covid ...... fueling inflation back then ....and all actions been too late

    Oh well .... another 5 years .... be even worse if his 'mate' Robertson is Finance Minister for another term
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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