ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[blackcap]

Not RBNZ related but I try not to clog up different threads with my bull*hit. Interesting reading in the herald this morning.

Hundreds of bus drivers from India, The Phillipines and Fiji have been brought to NZ to drive the buses. I guess this is preferable to raising wages to attract people to the job. Also in the same paper, record numbers of Kiwis leaving NZ for higher wages overseas. Hmm, what is the vision for future NZ a low wage economy with a clear distinction between the asset owning elites and the rest of NZ. I imagine that is desirable for Chris Luxon but not the NZ I grew up in but also hard to swim against the tide.

I agree with you, if we have people here that can do the job, then we should use those people. Getting import in to do menial tasks is a recipe for disaster.

[thegreatestben]

Poll for next OCR review predictions here - https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...vember-27-2024

[Panda-NZ-]

Discl - may be insensitive to people over 65.

Something I've picked up from some Australian property discussions is the talk of having zombie houses in central cities. These are houses in prime economic areas taken up by pensioners rather than younger working couples. Dealing with this may have significant benefits.

You can't argue that say, a draconian policy of an age limit for living within a city wouldn't be economically beneficial. If you have a house in Auckland then boom, sell it for a similar quality home in Hamilton, Invers or hawkes bay and have a 500k nest egg to boot and give your former house to a working couple.

[Aaron]

Jarrod Kerr Kiwibank economist says a 50basis point cut is the "right" thing to do. I would be interested to know how big Jarrod's mortgage is before listening to his twaddle.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/360499...0-basis-points

Mind you he also thought it was the "right" thing to do back in August

https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-...-matters-most/

It would be interesting to know if Jarrod ever thought raising the interest rate was the "right" thing to do. I imagine an Arts student will always be looking for the easy option.

Why the nation listens to weak people like Jarrod beggars belief. Does he want all young people trying to buy a house to drown in debt. I guess that is what the bank wants which makes Jarrod's views borderline evil.

[Aaron]

What is it about Sharon Zollner the chief economist at the ANZ. She seems different to other bank economists.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...eak-things-are

She said the survey "does pour cold water" on the idea of large emergency Official Cash Rate (OCR) cuts being necessary to "scrape the economy off the floor".

"There is real pain out there – and both unemployment and business failures are likely to continue to increase for some time.

"But those two measures tell you where the economy has been, not where it’s going. Firms are saying that things are looking brighter," Zollner said.

[JBmurc]

A Must watch ...over the weekend ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_kRerDwApg

[Aaron]

Don't usually agree with Richard Prebble but there were a couple of things we can agree on this week. (behind paywall)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...JWOFDFEJEPEVU/

"In the past 10 years, economic growth has come from immigration. Immigration has increased the size of the economy at the expense of living standards. As the economy has grown the average New Zealander has become poorer."
"In 2013, our population was 4.4 million. In 2023 5.2 million. An increase of 800,000. Population growth of 18% in a decade. It is more than the combined population of urban Wellington and Christchurch. Those cities took 180 years to build. It is the reason our hospitals, schools and roads are overwhelmed. It is unsustainable.
Economic growth coming from milk is sustainable."

Also he says this;

"I believe we have a reckless central bank. The Reserve Bank governor in his interview with TVNZ last week did not acknowledge any errors. The governor claimed the bank had saved the New Zealand economy. There was no admission printing $50 billion caused the house price explosion and inflation and resulted in the Reserve Bank’s engineered recession. The governor blamed house prices on house buyers."

"Westpac chief economist, Kelly Eckhold and Professor Robert McCulloch both believe New Zealand’s neutral interest rate, inflation neither rises nor falls, is about 4%.
The Reserve Bank’s latest statement indicates the Bank will overshoot again, cut interest rates to below 4% and stimulate inflation.
The governor in his television interview advocated Labour Party policy, borrow and spend."

Why Adrian Orr keeps his job must be something to do with govt not being able to meddle in the RBNZ affairs. Hopefully he can be replaced as soon as possible, although who knows what the next person will be like. The borrow, spend, print money, suppress interest rate way of thinking is pretty prevalent in govt, society in general as well as in higher academic circles such as bank economists and real estate agents and investors so change is unlikely.