ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[Aaron]

Annual inflation running at 7.2%. Who is responsible and why do they still have a job when the target is already high at 1-3% but they can't even do that.

7.2% or 140% above the top end of his target or 620% above the bottom end of his target if you want to be negative. How can someone keep their job while continuing to FAIL so miserably at it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131...s-in-unchanged

Not the best $835,000 the NZ taxpayer has spent on controlling inflation.

[dobby41]

Annual inflation running at 7.2%. Who is responsible and why do they still have a job when the target is already high at 1-3% but they can't even do that.

7.2% or 140% above the top end of his target or 620% above the bottom end of his target if you want to be negative. How can someone keep their job while continuing to FAIL so miserably at it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131...s-in-unchanged

Not the best $835,000 the NZ taxpayer has spent on controlling inflation.

Did you expect the RB to just snap their fingers and the inflation rate would come down?
If everyone had a floating mortgage OCR changes would have a faster effect - if you are a year away from coming off your fixed rate it is a year before any OCR change really affects your directly.
The lag is a problem and exacerbates the risk of overshoot.

[Aaron]

Did you expect the RB to just snap their fingers and the inflation rate would come down?
If everyone had a floating mortgage OCR changes would have a faster effect - if you are a year away from coming off your fixed rate it is a year before any OCR change really affects your directly.
The lag is a problem and exacerbates the risk of overshoot.

I would question how we got here in the first place. Pandemic response? Putin? supply chains? monetary policy? Too much concern about pushing up asset prices?

You are right though there is a risk of doing too much the other way which might be just as bad. I hear anecdotal evidence that things may be slowing down quite dramatically since the Christmas break.

I read somewhere that tightening into a recession is a new thing too so who knows how that will turn out.

[blackcap]

I would question how we got here in the first place. Pandemic response? Putin? supply chains? monetary policy? Too much concern about pushing up asset prices?

You are right though there is a risk of doing too much the other way which might be just as bad. I hear anecdotal evidence that things may be slowing down quite dramatically since the Christmas break.

I read somewhere that tightening into a recession is a new thing too so who knows how that will turn out.

I can confirm your first point. I have an interest in retail and things have definitely slowed post Christmas. Not sure if its due to people being on holiday or tightening. I lean to the latter as I looked at last years figures and things are definitely tracking behind.

[Aaron]

I can confirm your first point. I have an interest in retail and things have definitely slowed post Christmas. Not sure if its due to people being on holiday or tightening. I lean to the latter as I looked at last years figures and things are definitely tracking behind.

I had heard demand for fencing wire has dropped right off, which might mean farmers are tightening their belts (debt plays a big part in some farmers businesses) or less subdivisions that need fencing. Only a passing conversation so can't read too much into it. Local builder had a building company ring and ask whether he had work for a gang of 4 guys. Nothing significant but little signs things might be slowing down and pressure on prices might ease, except you suspect in things like building supplies the large suppliers have found that people just pay more every couple of months as they raise prices. Haven't checked but remember seeing a post on the Vulcan Steel thread where the happy investor was pleased to see margins improving which would indicate prices are increasing faster than costs. I should check out Fletchers margins in their next set of financials.

[Aaron]

Auckland Business and Chris Hipkins don't think 6,000 immigrants a month is enough.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/polit...-problems.html

https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...november-2022/

Oh well election year the rest of NZ can have a say on the issue.

[winner69]

Auckland Business and Chris Hipkins don't think 6,000 immigrants a month is enough.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/polit...-problems.html

https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...november-2022/

Oh well election year the rest of NZ can have a say on the issue.

Hipkins goes on about this 'inflation pandemic'

Some bright spark said the vaccine is a change in government

[Aaron]

Hipkins goes on about this 'inflation pandemic'

Some bright spark said the vaccine is a change in government

Not sure National would be any different. I do wonder how the inflation in house construction costs is alleviated. We are building houses and infrastructure to keep up with the 50k plus immigrants we get most years which requires more workers due to the labour shortage as a lot of labour is tied up building houses, roads, hospitals etc to house the increasing population. The whole process seems a bit circular but I guess it makes sense if more people consuming more stuff is what your economy is based on and how success is measured.

Seems like not a lot of thought is going into how we live our lives and what we want as a nation but then again I am not a business "leader" or politician. Ganeesh Nana as chair of the productivity commission needs to push the debate on levels of immigration. Not just the simplistic push down wages and push up rents and house prices approach but whether it is good for NZers other than landlords and employers.

[Aaron]

Property investors know Adrian Orr is keen to ease. Only need to fix for one year as rates will be coming down in a year.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...s-survey-finds

[Aaron]

Maybe some intelligent people are thinking along the same lines as me.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...gaps-economist