ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[winner69]

Property investors know Adrian Orr is keen to ease. Only need to fix for one year as rates will be coming down in a year.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...s-survey-finds

Real problem is the pitiful productivity (economically) this country …..doesn’t get any better if we have zillions of immigrants or not.

Let zillions in if they help generate real economic (and suppose in these days social wealth as well) growth.

[Aaron]

Real problem is the pitiful productivity (economically) this country …..doesn’t get any better if we have zillions of immigrants or not.

Let zillions in if they help generate real economic (and suppose in these days social wealth as well) growth.

We have got a productivity commission and Ganesh Nana raised the issue of policy and thinking around immigration (I suspect there is none other than boosting GDP) versus training young people in NZ and providing them with opportunities to grow and becoming more productive as a nation.

[winner69]

We have got a productivity commission and Ganesh Nana raised the issue of policy and thinking around immigration (I suspect there is none other than boosting GDP) versus training young people in NZ and providing them with opportunities to grow and becoming more productive as a nation.

Nana is about as useless as Orr

[Ferg]

versus training young people in NZ and providing them with opportunities to grow and becoming more productive as a nation.

Have you got any practical suggestions around this? What I am seeing is a group of young men not willing to work. They don't turn up to interviews. They fail drug tests. They are happy walking around the streets on weekdays but they won't apply for a job. We offer jobs to people who turn up and pass a drug and attitude test. The pay and benefits are good but the Kiwi applicants are few and far between, assuming they can can hang onto the job once they get it. We have zero such issues with immigrant workers.

[Aaron]

Have you got any practical suggestions around this? What I am seeing is a group of young men not willing to work. They don't turn up to interviews. They fail drug tests. They are happy walking around the streets on weekdays but they won't apply for a job. We offer jobs to people who turn up and pass a drug and attitude test. The pay and benefits are good but the Kiwi applicants are few and far between, assuming they can can hang onto the job once they get it. We have zero such issues with immigrant workers.

No, no practical suggestions or practical experience. I guess if wages rise and benefits don't then there might be more incentive to work.

What I have been arguing without an ounce of proof, the construction industry is going gang busters and at a guess I would suggest more people than ever are employed in the industry. The main driver for this being 50,000 plus immigrants each year needing somewhere to live. If the building and infrastructure industry did not take up so many of the hardworking young NZers would we have more people available for work in other industries?

There will always be useless bludgers but hopefully they are a very small minority, not much you can do to encourage them to work other than stop handing them money for doing nothing.

In other news, its raining in Auckland, so we need more immigrants.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131...-cleanup-ahead

There was a thought with so much infill housing trying to keep up with demand, Auckland is a lot less porous than it used to be. Admittedly it was a record rainfall I believe, so hard to blame immigration. Although... if you want to spin it, the rainfall is due to climate change and we are trying to put less CO2 into the atmosphere. How much CO2 does your average NZer spit out per annum and how much would 50,000 extra people produce per annum. An interesting comparison if farmers are ever asked to pay a fart tax again.

[Aaron]

Interesting article in the herald this morning.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...NL46SNWJHQPTM/

Opinion piece so you might want to google Ruchir Sharma before reading.

What caught my eye (confirmation bias) was this.

Combined stimulus in the US, the EU, Japan and the UK, including government spending and central bank asset purchases, rose from 1 per cent of gross domestic product in the recessions of 1980 and 1990 to 3 per cent in 2001, 12 per cent in 2008 and a staggering 35 per cent in 2020.

It looks to me like a trend.

So I guess to save us next time they require more than double the stimulus of the time before so 70-80% of GDP in stimulus. I am planning on being a multi millionaire by the end of 2024 based on these figures.

Interesting view lower in the article. I have only read about ageing demographics being deflationary as older people spend less. What this guy suggests is declining birth rates and ageing populations will be inflationary for wages rather than the deflation we expect. Interesting to see who will be right over time but both seem like reasonable arguments.

[Aaron]

.25 from the Fed, rate rises slowing, a pivot approaching and rates should decline thereafter.

With inflation in NZ at 7% I wonder why term deposit holders are not demanding at least 7% to maintain their purchasing power???

Maybe it is simple economics, supply and demand. If the supply of capital tightens up then central banks print money to ensure there is never a supply issue so term deposit holders can never demand higher rates because the supply of capital is unlimited.

Is that what a capitalist system means. Unlimited supply of capital or is it central control of capital and interest rates, with the free market working its magic everywhere else, except in the most essential areas of capitalism.

[dobby41]

With inflation in NZ at 7% I wonder why term deposit holders are not demanding at least 7% to maintain their purchasing power???

They can demand what they want but if capital is cheaper elsewhere then they'll be left with cash under the mattress.

[Aaron]

They can demand what they want but if capital is cheaper elsewhere then they'll be left with cash under the mattress.

Where is all the cheaper "capital" coming from?

Funding For Lending anyone???

Quantitative easing anyone QE1, 2, infinity???

I wonder if this could be considered a cheap, plentiful source of capital, what do you reckon Dobby?

I used to think capital came from savings and banks and financial institutions competed for that capital by offering a return on investment, but I am badly wrong with that understanding.

[Aaron]

They can demand what they want but if capital is cheaper elsewhere then they'll be left with cash under the mattress.

Come on Dobby who are the "investors" accepting return free risk.