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  1. #151
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    Maybe not good news for depositors but encouraging.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120...rbnz-announces

    Adrian may be making the dollars worthless with QE but at least our Aussie owners won't get NZ cash to bail themselves out ahead of NZers.

  2. #152
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    smart move for sure banks will have enough loan defaults to deal with and need to hold as much capital in reserve ...
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Maybe not good news for depositors but encouraging.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120...rbnz-announces

    Adrian may be making the dollars worthless with QE but at least our Aussie owners won't get NZ cash to bail themselves out ahead of NZers.
    Dividends not being paid forces more people to take pain so isn't really a good thing. It is however fair to be forced to make concessions if public money is being used to support the banks. Is it?
    Probably but Im not exactly clear on that, what with the state putting its noses so much into business its hard to know if you can fart without breaking a regulation.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  4. #154
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    In the governor's case I suppose he considers that he's acting to protect the NZ banking and monetary system. As he is employed to do.

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    In the governor's case I suppose he considers that he's acting to protect the NZ banking and monetary system. As he is employed to do.
    well he needs to talk to Grant and get him to tell Jacinda shes ruining the economy and the lockdown needs to stop asap

    the inequity of the outcomes for people is appalling.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    Dividends not being paid forces more people to take pain so isn't really a good thing. It is however fair to be forced to make concessions if public money is being used to support the banks. Is it?
    Probably but Im not exactly clear on that, what with the state putting its noses so much into business its hard to know if you can fart without breaking a regulation.
    The taxpayers guaranteed the banks back in 2008/09 no one was bi*t*hing about government interfering in business back then. Not paying dividends forces the right people to take the pain, the business owners. Don't gamble with depositors money when you know tough times are ahead.
    Last edited by Aaron; 02-04-2020 at 03:12 PM.

  7. #157
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    in my opinion the govt is causing the pain, the RBNZ cannot fix it, but the govt can.

    There is no evidence to support the lockdown.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    in my opinion the govt is causing the pain, the RBNZ cannot fix it, but the govt can.

    There is no evidence to support the lockdown.
    Well said. Totally agree with this sentiment.

  9. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    in my opinion the govt is causing the pain, the RBNZ cannot fix it, but the govt can.

    There is no evidence to support the lockdown.
    The entire world has shut down without a shred of evidence to support it? Possibly the results in countries such as Italy, Spain and now possibly the US would indicate some sort of evidence in support of the lock down?

    Are we to assume just about the entire world leadership from China to the US to NZ have locked down everything on a whim without any evidence?

    Or are you suggesting the cure may be worse than the disease or possibly you don't give a s**t about old people dying. You and blackcap might be right but we will never know as just about the whole world has decided a lock down is the best option. I thought the UK was going to go with the herd immunity but they changed their minds for some reason. Either they flipped a coin and changed their minds or they were presented with some evidence that a lock down and social distancing was a better option. There is pain either way physical or financial it depends what is most important to you people or money?

    If the lock down pricks the debt bubble that will ensure additional economic pain but if the virus was allowed to spread exponentially the eventual drop off in customers may have had as big an economic impact anyway. a 2% loss of customers plus a likely reduction in people going out anyway.

    Sorry I might be getting off topic.
    Last edited by Aaron; 02-04-2020 at 04:33 PM.

  10. #160
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    yeh its not the thread but I am not convinced the shutdown is necessary
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  11. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    a 2% loss of customers plus a likely reduction in people going out anyway.

    Sorry I might be getting off topic.
    Those figures are so not correct. It's 2% of confirmed cases. But not 2% of population. Diamond Princess, 3770 people on board, 10 deaths. 0.265% death rate there. That is a population rate.
    But as Peat said, not the correct thread.

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Those figures are so not correct. It's 2% of confirmed cases. But not 2% of population. Diamond Princess, 3770 people on board, 10 deaths. 0.265% death rate there. That is a population rate.
    But as Peat said, not the correct thread.
    Sorry can't help myself.
    Thanks for calling out my fake news with the 2%. Although your analysis seems overly simplistic as I don't think everyone on board caught the virus but thanks for the optimistic outlook.

    As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.

    Extrapolating those numbers to China, the team estimates that 1.1 percent of symptomatic cases there turned deadly. Considering asymptomatic cases drops that ratio to about 0.5 percent in China, the team calculates.


    The Diamond Princess seems like a good way to judge how deadly the virus is as they tested everyone. If the above is not also fake news then 2% is only for those who become symptomatic. Including asymptomatic people this drops to 1% so half I what I said. and even at .5% in China not quite double what you are suggesting.
    I stand corrected but you might want to get your facts straight as well.

  13. #163
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    Reading the last post I can see why macduffy is shepherding me around to a relevant thread.

    Adrian Orr and low interest rates and easy money is really getting some headlines lately.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...DJ7NCDFPGUMYA/

    I would have voted Social Credit if I thought it was a good idea. I guess the reserve bank buying the govt bonds off the banks provides some income for the trading banks while interest rates are so low.

    Adrian Orr has his hands tied as he has suggested. The govt is the only one who can provide real change. Reduce the Reserve Banks inflation target to zero%.

    I am also confused Adrian Orr says the interest rate suppression is to ensure full employment yet in the news I hear that we import workers for the fishing industry, harvesting and farming. Also I heard a plan to train inmates to drive as we have a driver shortage. Someone is bullshi**ing. Is it Adrian or business leaders, or is Adrian seeing something worse coming down the road.

    Economists predictions earlier this year of a 10% fall in house prices don't appear to have been that prescient either.

  14. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Reading the last post I can see why macduffy is shepherding me around to a relevant thread.

    Adrian Orr and low interest rates and easy money is really getting some headlines lately.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...DJ7NCDFPGUMYA/

    I would have voted Social Credit if I thought it was a good idea. I guess the reserve bank buying the govt bonds off the banks provides some income for the trading banks while interest rates are so low.

    Adrian Orr has his hands tied as he has suggested. The govt is the only one who can provide real change. Reduce the Reserve Banks inflation target to zero%.

    I am also confused Adrian Orr says the interest rate suppression is to ensure full employment yet in the news I hear that we import workers for the fishing industry, harvesting and farming. Also I heard a plan to train inmates to drive as we have a driver shortage. Someone is bullshi**ing. Is it Adrian or business leaders, or is Adrian seeing something worse coming down the road.

    Economists predictions earlier this year of a 10% fall in house prices don't appear to have been that prescient either.
    Personally think the Govt / RBNZ are increasingly wanting to keep property from stalling as that would be far to close to falling in value and as majority of young adult kiwis property mad an ticked to the eyeballs the mandate is to keep the madness flowing while spewing how hard your working to help First time home buyers ... itís the old kick the can down the road
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  15. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Personally think the Govt / RBNZ are increasingly wanting to keep property from stalling as that would be far to close to falling in value and as majority of young adult kiwis property mad an ticked to the eyeballs the mandate is to keep the madness flowing while spewing how hard your working to help First time home buyers ... it’s the old kick the can down the road
    It used to be you take on debt you take on risk but as you say people have an expectation central banks will ensure/insure there is capital gains and that interest rates will get cut each time there is trouble. Currently they are gauranteeing 2% per annum but as all the inflation they are creating is in asset prices you are getting 7%. Who needs yield with capital gains like this. All the while people without assets are not really waking up to the fact that monetary policy has/is destroying any chance they have to get ahead as asset prices soar at double the rate of wage inflation for the last 20 years. This is only sustainable as interest rates have been steadily dropping over this time and people can take on more debt to make up the difference, but we are now at or near zero. Savings are losing 2-3% in purchasing power each year currently, how do you save for a house deposit?

    You might get a handout from this govt but you won't get a hand up as that would require a rethink on monetary policy and whether constantly rising prices is actually a good thing.
    Last edited by Aaron; 08-12-2020 at 09:12 AM.

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