ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[Logen Ninefingers]

Define perfectly well with low productivity, 5% unemployment and no real wages growth except for the lower end via govt mandate (MW increase).

Not sure which era you are talking about. But in any case, you - like Labour - are looking to shift a bunch of things (including productivity & wage growth) away from the purview of the government and into the wheelhouse of the Reserve Bank.

It also appears to have escaped your notice that Orr has been trying to engineer both an economic slow-down and increasing slack in the labour market, neither of which is positive for employment.

You are once again making a mountain out of a molehill, and nit-picking about National simply reverting the mandate to the historical status quo, where it was before Robertson tinkered with it.

[Panda-NZ-]

You are once again making a mountain out of a molehill, and nit-picking about National simply reverting the mandate to the historical status quo, where it was before Robertson tinkered with it.

Yeah it fits in with the back on track mindset.

Nevermind that many other countries consider employment rates as relevant and it works well for them.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Yeah it fits in with the back on track mindset.

Nevermind that many other countries consider employment rates as relevant and it works well enough for them.

Your mates in the unions may think it’s a big deal, but as mentioned: when you look at what the Reserve Bank is actually doing then it makes Robbo’s mandate change to the former status quo nothing more than an exercise in political ducking and diving to avoid potential blame.

[Panda-NZ-]

Your mates in the unions may think it’s a big deal, but as mentioned: when you look at what the Reserve Bank is actually doing then it makes Robbo’s mandate change to the former status quo nothing more than an exercise in political ducking and diving to avoid potential blame.

The US Federal reserve is captured by NZ's weak and ineffective unions then ?

It's the opposition which thinks its a big deal because of a one-off worldwide inflation hit.

[Logen Ninefingers]

The US federal reserve is captured by NZ's weak and ineffective unions then ?

It's the opposition which thinks its a big deal because of a one-off worldwide inflation hit.

In NZ it will be simply a matter of reverting the mandate back to what it was for decades before Robertson’s tinkering. Amazing that Labour can waste billions and you don’t give a hoot, but what gets you really worked up is a change to a mandate that just restores it back to what it had been previously. You must think that Robertson has some divine right to dictate what the mandate must be from now until the end of time. He doesn’t. Please drop the faux indignation.

[Panda-NZ-]

In NZ it will be simply a matter of reverting the mandate back to what it was for decades before Robertson’s tinkering. Amazing that Labour can waste billions and you don’t give a hoot, but what gets you really worked up is a change to a mandate that just restores it back to what it had been previously. You must think that Robertson has some divine right to dictate what the mandate must be from now until the end of time. He doesn’t. Please drop the faux indignation.

I do care about people losing their jobs and having stagnant wages.

Simply because we have to get "back on track".

[Logen Ninefingers]

I do care about people losing their jobs and having stagnant wages.

Simply because we have to get "back on track".

The Reserve Bank has already set out to engineer an economic slow-down and 'slack in the labour market', despite anything that may or may not be in their mandate. Slack in the labour market = rising unemployment.

All you are trying to do is fatuously link the slogan of a political party with the wiping away of a piece of Labour party tinkering which was more about optics and blame-shifting.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Is Orr having a nap at the wheel?

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...ould-be-facing

Westpac economists say if the RBNZ's judgement is wrong, then New Zealand could be facing a protracted period of strong domestic inflation pressures

21st Aug 23, 2:23pm
by David Hargreaves

‘Westpac economists say they have growing concerns about the Reserve Bank's monetary policy strategy and risk management approach.
In Westpac's Weekly Economic Commentary, chief economist Kelly Eckhold says it will be critical for the RBNZ to be successful bringing inflation to heel expeditiously.
"Any further delay in returning inflation to target raises risks of an even more protracted and bumpy ride," he said.
The RBNZ last week left the Official Cash Rate unchanged on 5.5% and continued to signal that while it's not planning to raise the OCR further, rates will need to stay high for a protracted period in order for inflation to be pushed back into the targeted 1% to 3% inflation range. As of the June quarter, inflation was 6.0% down from a peak of 7.3% last year.
Eckhold said the risks "need to be well managed". In highlighting his growing concerns on the RBNZ's approach he pointed to the fact that since the central bank's December 2022 Monetary Policy Statement, it had indicated a clear strategy of getting the OCR to and keeping it at 5.5% until the September quarter of 2024 before easing.

"This strategy has not been adjusted to reflect some significant changes in the outlook which add inflation pressure – for example the migration cycle and the expansionary 2023-24 budget."
Now, when faced with concerns of more persistent inflation the RBNZ is choosing to extend the on-hold period and are betting that an OCR of 5.5% is sufficiently restrictive to compensate, Eckhold said.
"However, if this judgement is wrong, then New Zealand could be facing a protracted period of strong domestic inflation pressures.
"In turn, that could feedback back into higher inflation expectations, which would make it harder to eventually bring inflation down.
"Given that risk, an alternative strategy would be to raise rates earlier and then ease earlier should negative risks take hold. If there were downside risks to the RBNZ's assessment of the inflation outlook then the RBNZ's approach would be more understandable – but the RBNZ doesn’t currently see the risks this way," Eckhold said.
In any case, inflation is "so elevated" the prospects of an undershoot of the inflation target seem remote, he said.
"...There is a widening of the distribution of future OCR paths emerging. It will be important for the RBNZ to act early should it become clear that the upside risks to inflation become more dominant.
"Let’s both plan for, as well as hope for, a smooth transition."’

[Aaron]

Looks like Labour have the immigration mix right.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/news/rese...price-recovery

RBNZ confirms success of current immigration policy. It is not inflationary. Migrants from Asia don't push up inflation as much. Wages deflate and CPI inflation drops. House prices are supported by a shortage of supply.

A record 195,000 migrants arrived in New Zealand in the year to June 2023, offset by 108,000 departures. That comes to a near-record 87,000 population increase due to net inward migration.

Research shows arrivals from Europe and the UK have a greater impact on real house prices than arrivals from Asia, because they’re more likely to buy property.

Now, the biggest numbers are from India, the Philippines and China. “This implies a currently more subdued impact on house prices, and on demand generally, relative to before the Covid-19 pandemic,” the monetary policy statement says.

Should make boomers happy, tenants for their rentals and support for their house prices, now that the young people born in NZ are moving to Aussie en masse.

[Aaron]

National might have some solutions if there is a housing shortage.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/big-natio...migrant-hostel