ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[iceman]

The fair pay agreement sounded like a good idea although I do not know enough to comment. One of the reasons put forward why Aussie's wages are higher than NZ is that they have stronger unions.

Do you think it’s possible Aaron that a 25-30% higher GDP per capita has something to do with the higher wages in Aussie ?
Or do you think it’s mainly due to very clever, but often corrupt, Union Bosses ?

[Aaron]

Do you think it’s possible Aaron that a 25-30% higher GDP per capita has something to do with the higher wages in Aussie ?
Or do you think it’s mainly due to very clever, but often corrupt, Union Bosses ?

Just putting it out there. I did say only ONE of the reasons put forward for why Australia has higher wages.

I think the NZ wharvies back in the day proved that a strong union could improve workers wages and conditions, although I would suggest they abused that power and took things too far. I did hear back in the day, that you had to be related to someone already working on the wharves to get a job there. Hard to believe. I think their wages were pretty good as well.

I am thinking more recent history, not 1951.

[Aaron]

Record immigration into a recession Labour or National makes no difference.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...9c6892ba&ei=13

It was only a few months ago employers were crying out for more workers. Maybe they were not being genuine and just like cheap labour.

[Aaron]

Adrian says that inflation is the number one evil for everyone.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other...1d87c93cd&ei=9

That said what are we doing about getting rid of the people that caused it?

If inflation is so evil why does the RBNZ have a 1-3% inflation target. Surely stable prices with slight increases and decreases depending on supply and demand might be preferable to govt guaranteed inflation.

Does anyone know what studies have been done to prove 1-3% inflation is better than price stability? I would be interested to read them to see how these conclusions were reached.

[Valuegrowth]

True. I don't think anybody can stop rising rents, cost of building houses, and rising insurance premiums. Only deflation can stop that.

Adrian says that inflation is the number one evil for everyone.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other...1d87c93cd&ei=9

That said what are we doing about getting rid of the people that caused it?

If inflation is so evil why does the RBNZ have a 1-3% inflation target. Surely stable prices with slight increases and decreases depending on supply and demand might be preferable to govt guaranteed inflation.

Does anyone know what studies have been done to prove 1-3% inflation is better than price stability? I would be interested to read them to see how these conclusions were reached.

[Aaron]

An article about how well inflation is working.

They should be talking to property speculators/rentiers or an over indebted govt, they are the main beneficiaries of the current ridiculous monetary policy and stupid inflation targets.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350...everyday-kiwis

Not much help as it does not address the cause of inflation or solutions. Still wondering why 1-3% inflation is OK but 5-6% is no good.

Based on the article I guess it is because the plebs and workers might realise that they are being ripped off by their own govt. for the benefit of the more well off asset owners if inflation gets too high. The RBNZ has a govt mandated 1%-3% inflation target so I guess this means any blame for an overshoot can be squarely placed on the small shoulders of the RBNZ.

What causes inflation? Putin? Suply Chain disruption? mass immigration? ZIRP? Money Printing? who knows.

I wonder if this graph shows a link with inflation and money printing.

https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zea...oney-supply-m1

[Aaron]

RBNZ set debt to income limits as a response to the RBNZ pushing house prices too high with low interest rates and Funding For Lending.

Another great example of how central planning works.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...GRT5XTHNBJWZM/

Adrian justifying every cent of his $850,000 salary.

[Aaron]

Adrian to discuss why the RBNZ "continues to believe that a flexible inflation target centred on 2% still makes sense".

I hope he gives a history of how the 2% was derived (including Arthur Grimes current views) and provides some studies that prove conclusively how debasing the currency by 2% a year is a good idea and is not just exacerbating wealth and income inequality.

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...-reserve-banks

Why is a small amount of deflation no good. A competitive free market economy would tend to deflation as businesses become more efficient and productive. Why fighting deflation is good for anyone other than for speculators, overpaid bankers and overpaid central bank governors.

If 2% is good why has he not offered his resignation for totally failing to keep inflation within his target range.

I suspect it will be some generic waffle about price stability even though inflation is the opposite of price stability and economic growth (when he only provides inflation of assets rather than actual growth)

Orr "will speak about the changing drivers of inflation over the past couple of years and the shift from transitory to more stubborn underlying inflation. He will also discuss why – despite these challenging years – the Reserve Bank continues to believe that a flexible inflation target centred on 2% still makes sense".

I suspect none of the changing drivers will be reckless monetary policy. Back to blaming Putin, supply chain disruption, uncontrolled immigration (although this will be keeping a lid on wages while boosting rents and house prices. ) What other bull*hit excuses he can come up with will be interesting.

[Aaron]

Government briefing papers per the herald.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...BHBCBUZSBF5JQ/

I like the one from MBIE re migration numbers.

Concerns about high net migration numbers post-Covid
The MBIE briefing notes to the Immigration Minister express concerns about the high net migration numbers New Zealand is experiencing post-Covid.

The provisional net migration gain of 118,800 for the year to September 2023 is the highest on record for an annual period.

"It is still unclear how much of this is catch-up, and what direction it may go in. Unless absorptive capacity keeps pace with population growth, then we will have increasing difficulty to take in more migrants and provide high-quality services to the locals. There can be tension where increased migration puts pressure on the absorptive capacity, but can provide the workforce needed to alleviate the pressure on absorptive capacity."

So MBIE is not sure if it will continue, so does that mean the NZ govt has no control on immigration numbers??

I like the last couple of lines. We might struggle with the numbers coming in but they will help deal with further floods of immigrants by providing labour. Seems like they have a chicken and egg situation for the morons at MBIE who have thrown up their hands regarding any sort of control over immigration numbers.

F*ck me what a Mickey Mouse way to run the country.

[Aaron]

Not RBNZ related although I see Adrian wants to fix up the vaults in Wellington. Maybe just drop interest rates and print more money then the paper in the vaults is not that valuable. He has been going well so far.

This piece of financial advice popped up in the news feeds.
Not that I would put anything on the credit card if I couldn't repay it at the end of the month also I save for the future and my retirement so the advice is probably not directed at me.

Is it me or is there a different mindset that says carrying expensive credit card debt is OK and not totally stupid. If you are forced to use the card you are in the s*it so you probably should not have one.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...cook-says.html

Just seemed crazy to be talking about this rather than suggesting they need to change jobs/businesses and reassess what they are spending on.

I think that all through zirp, credit card debt remained reasonably elevated. I wonder at what rate it becomes usury.