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  1. #21
    Member Lego_Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Too many distractions diverting his attention away from the main job I think

    Wasn’t bad that after promoting ‘transparency’ the RBNZ banned media and even reporting from a speech to business people recently ...aparently this is what transparency means - “...communicate directly with a group of people who will be better informed after the event than they were at the start. That fits very well with our strategy to communicate more widely.”

    Also it seem strange that even though the RBNZ say 4.6% is the best guess of the unemployment rate consistent with keeping inflation low and yet the Reserve Bank has allowed it to fall to 4.4% without considering the need for at least a token OCR hike ...but then saying the next change could be up or down maybe he has considered a hike but is signalling a cut if anything is like. We’ll all suffer in late 2019/2020
    Fruity as hell...

    I had high hopes for Orr but he seems to be overreaching his role at every opportunity. We've gone from one extreme to the other...

  2. #22
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    Clearly not into crypto
    "The death of the currency is much exaggerated at the moment, and likewise the life of a lot of these cryptocurrencies," Orr said.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #23
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    Diversity and Inclusiveness thats our future.No need to be scared, embrace positive change and leave redundant RB habits behind. KEEP UP

    "I think we were lagging behind in some places," Orr says. "It's not just tikanga Māori, it's about accepting what future New Zealand looks like. It doesn't look like current New Zealand. It's going to be Polynesian, Asian, European, as opposed to European, Polynesian, Asian" and the bank has to grow with the change.

  4. #24
    Member Lego_Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Diversity and Inclusiveness thats our future.No need to be scared, embrace positive change and leave redundant RB habits behind. KEEP UP

    "I think we were lagging behind in some places," Orr says. "It's not just tikanga Māori, it's about accepting what future New Zealand looks like. It doesn't look like current New Zealand. It's going to be Polynesian, Asian, European, as opposed to European, Polynesian, Asian" and the bank has to grow with the change.

    Maybe wishful thinking from the Euro-haters.

    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_...2013-2038.aspx

    Stats NZ still has European NZ'ers as a comfortable majority of the population out to 2038 (and by inference beyond), so his characterisation is completely bogus. Possibly more worrisome for our treaty partners as they will be shortly overtaken as out largest minority.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lego_Man View Post
    Maybe wishful thinking from the Euro-haters.

    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_...2013-2038.aspx

    Stats NZ still has European NZ'ers as a comfortable majority of the population out to 2038 (and by inference beyond), so his characterisation is completely bogus. Possibly more worrisome for our treaty partners as they will be shortly overtaken as out largest minority.
    It's going to be European, Asian, Polynesian before anything.

  6. #26
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    We seem to be straying well away fom this forum's theme - Investment Strategies.


  7. #27
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    Good speech by Orr ....good probably because I agree about short termism

    https://rbnz.govt.nz/research-and-pu...eech2018-09-07

    Orr sounds bored as a RBNZ Governor .....seems more interested in things other than monetary policy (and my opinion he’s not doing that well)
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  8. #28
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    Excellent read , thanks for the link w69.

  9. #29
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    yes thanks from me too w69.

  10. #30
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    Another Orr masterpiece (under guise of RBNZ)

    https://rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/Reserve...huta.pdf?la=en
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  11. #31
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    Good to see NBR telling Orr just to do his job .....and I’m not Shoeshine

    We don’t need no rockstar Reserve Banker

    https://www.nbr.co.nz/analysis/we-do...0554d-49461157
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  12. #32
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    What does an interest rate say about an economy. You lower it to increase growth and increase it to decrease growth.
    https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-po...rate-decisions
    Definitely pro growth with another cut expected.
    8.25% in June 2008. Hard to believe in this day and age.

  13. #33
    Senior Member Toulouse - Luzern's Avatar
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    I was interested in NBR article cited but it is behind a paywall.
    I found this article by Dr Bryce Wilkinson online
    https://nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-...bank-deposits/

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toulouse - Luzern View Post
    I was interested in NBR article cited but it is behind a paywall.
    I found this article by Dr Bryce Wilkinson online
    https://nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-...bank-deposits/
    I'm confused when did the open bank resolution include a government guarantee. I see it mentioned in the graphic here
    https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation-...ank-resolution

    but if you click on Q& As you get this
    https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/faqs/open-b...on-policy-faqs

    Not a big fan of the NZ Initiative, a think tank unable to work out why GST is regressive. Sounds more like they have an ideological bent they want to push. If the free market is the best option they should first go for the abolition of interest rate controls by the central bank and an end to monetary instability in the form of targeted inflation rates.

    Although I agree taxpayers shouldn't be guaranteeing any industry and a taxpayer guarantee won't encourage bankers to act more responsibly. Although who pays for the deposit insurance most countries have? The depositors? I like the idea you won't be completely wiped out in a bank failure.

  15. #35
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    What does an interest rate say about an economy. You lower it to increase growth and increase it to decrease growth.
    https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-po...rate-decisions
    Definitely pro growth with another cut expected.
    8.25% in June 2008. Hard to believe in this day and age.
    RBNZ policy like many central banks goal is forced by short term thinking Govt(that in turn do the Banks bidding) is to make sure the property market does not fall in value, in turn, pressuring the finance consumer model the banks need to survive

    As unlike the US the local banks hold the risk on properties decreasing in value i.e I don't think NZ/Aus banks have shifted the risk off the balance sheet like what we have seen in the likes of the US market with CDO's to retirement funds (which then blew-up crashing the funds value)
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I'm confused when did the open bank resolution include a government guarantee. I see it mentioned in the graphic here
    https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation-...ank-resolution

    but if you click on Q& As you get this
    https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/faqs/open-b...on-policy-faqs
    THey clarify that with:

    All funds that are not frozen will be subject to a government guarantee to ensure that all participants in the financial system are able to engage with the re-opened bank with confidence that any transactions will be honoured.

    And of course they dont quantify the frozen amount, it might be bigger than you think!

    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  17. #37
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    Aaron - you might enjoy this

    http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2018-articles/
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    THey clarify that with:

    All funds that are not frozen will be subject to a government guarantee to ensure that all participants in the financial system are able to engage with the re-opened bank with confidence that any transactions will be honoured.

    And of course they dont quantify the frozen amount, it might be bigger than you think!

    I guess the NZ Initiative may be getting concerned about nothing. I guess the "government guarantee" scared them into action

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Dare I say that that it sounded reasonable to me. Googling him indicates he is not a total crackpot although he is an economist(arts students shouldn't be running the world). I think it may have been him who wrote an interesting article regarding Ireland and the GFC whereby he pointed out the only reason they had a debt problem was that the Irish were buying houses from each other at higher and higher prices in a virtuous cycle of higher valuation more equity more debt available to pay more for the next house. It sounds like the makings of a good joke about Irish stupidity like the ones I used to hear as a kid, but it also sounds a lot like NZ and Australia currently, although US, European and Chinese funny money may also help as some of the Central Bank bond buying must eventual flow to our shores.

    Although I go on about the greedy generation, I think their rip off of younger generations is only a small part of the problem. Extreme disparity in wealth(and power) might be the main problem and it is being exacerbated by Central Banks and QE and low interest rates ensuring high asset price inflation.

    From what I read I suspect a majority of boomers main store of wealth is their house and possibly a small portfolio of shares so they continue to support a system that tries to look after this to the detriment of the young and the poor not necessarily out of greed but possibly out of fear. There might be a better way, I am unsure what it is but a start might be getting rid of targeted inflation and stopping the deceptive use of inflation to get rid of debt over time.
    I have heard the term honest money being used, currently it is being used to deceive as the wealth effect is currently real but won't be if wages and the price of everything else catches up to asset prices.

    I think the problem might be that QE and interest rates and wealth disparity might be getting more extreme each time QE happens or interest rates fall in the face of rising asset prices. Also the constant growth model may be running up against the environment and the limits of the planet. Who knows personally I think the younger generation shut out of the housing market can be more idealistic in their views as they have nothing to lose.
    Last edited by Aaron; 17-02-2019 at 09:44 AM.

  20. #40
    One Fearsome Feline winner69's Avatar
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    Good post Aaron

    I’ve always enjoyed reading David McWilliams over the years and once was lucky to see him in action in a Kilkenomics session (where economics and comedy come together).

    Maybe it’s more his style of writing than economics that attracts me but his subject matter is always interesting

    Best piece was this from 2007
    http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/the-generation-game/
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

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