ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[Logen Ninefingers]

(head buried in sand) "It's all transitory!!!!"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...risis-not-over

Fresh warning from Transpower - electricity crisis not over
Tom Pullar-Strecker
08:38, Aug 10 2021

An electricity crisis that resulted in blackouts on Monday evening does not appear to be over.

National grid operator Transpower issued a fresh emergency notice on Tuesday morning and wholesale electricity prices were spiking at an astonishing $110 a kilowatt-hour shortly after 8am – about 300 times the price consumers normally pay for power.

Wholesale prices dropped back to about 60c/kWh shortly before 9am – still indicative of a significant supply problem.

Transpower warned at 7.30am there was insufficient generation and reserve offers to meet demand and provide security for a “contingent event”.

[Logen Ninefingers]

In your humble opinion, I will continue to keep mine. You got ahead with higher interest rates and I imagine have got even further ahead once they started dropping.

Don't worry your comments don't make me angry you only have to worry about yourself and your family.

Adrian Orr makes me angry because he is supposed to be providing price stability for the whole nation but like many central bankers equates financial stability with asset price inflation.

QE and non-stop interest rate suppression started after the GFC so that bankers could continue to make out like bandits and reap their enormous bonuses. The Fed is the bankers bank run by bankers for the benefit of bankers. "The Wealth Effect" is a daft and criminal scheme designed to co-opt asset owners into the 'too big to fail' group along with the criminal banksters - effectively pitting society against itself.

[TeslaGod]

(head buried in sand) "It's all transitory!!!!"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...risis-not-over

Fresh warning from Transpower - electricity crisis not over
Tom Pullar-Strecker
08:38, Aug 10 2021

An electricity crisis that resulted in blackouts on Monday evening does not appear to be over.

National grid operator Transpower issued a fresh emergency notice on Tuesday morning and wholesale electricity prices were spiking at an astonishing $110 a kilowatt-hour shortly after 8am – about 300 times the price consumers normally pay for power.

Wholesale prices dropped back to about 60c/kWh shortly before 9am – still indicative of a significant supply problem.

Transpower warned at 7.30am there was insufficient generation and reserve offers to meet demand and provide security for a “contingent event”.

Oh no

how am I going to charge my $90,000 Tesla.

Thank goodness for my $30,000 solar roof.

Capitalism wins on the day.

[TeslaGod]

Interest rates hikes only take out young home buyers in the market.

First home buyers are one of the largest buyers in this low interest rate environment.

There are many wealthy who have access to liquidity or cash and don't need finance.

They are the ones sitting on the sidelines waiting for the competition to fade away.

So if you wish for interest rates hikes I would be careful what you wish for because it will only transfer the wealth and assets into the hands of a few.

[TeslaGod]

"Consumers Expect Higher Earnings Growth and Greater Ease of Finding Jobs Over the Next Year"

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevent.../2021/20210809

I reiterate any OCR increase will slow down or stop NZ wage growth as our trading partners allow for short term inflation to eventually stabilize with out raising there OCR .

[Aaron]

Interest rates hikes only take out young home buyers in the market.

First home buyers are one of the largest buyers in this low interest rate environment.

There are many wealthy who have access to liquidity or cash and don't need finance.

They are the ones sitting on the sidelines waiting for the competition to fade away.

So if you wish for interest rates hikes I would be careful what you wish for because it will only transfer the wealth and assets into the hands of a few.

20 Years of lower interest rates.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/...ph-90-day-rate

What has happened to home ownership over this time.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/homeo...lmost-70-years

Wealth inequality over the last 20 years

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ir-go-identity
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...leaving-behind

You are either talking your book or through a hole in your ars*. I know which one I am picking.

Based on quick google searches admittedly but I think you would find with proper research the statistics are the opposite of what you are suggesting.

[Aaron]

"Consumers Expect Higher Earnings Growth and Greater Ease of Finding Jobs Over the Next Year"

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevent.../2021/20210809

I reiterate any OCR increase will slow down or stop NZ wage growth as our trading partners allow for short term inflation to eventually stabilize with out raising there OCR .

My argument is that inflation is a bad thing particularly for the people you have suggested concern for in your earlier post, first home buyers and less wealthy people. If wage rises match house and stock price inflation then it is all relative but if assets continue to rise faster than wages then you are reducing the chance of social mobility, something a person from a state house and solo Mum I would have thought would like to keep open for other generations.

The argument that our exporters will get hit if interest rates rise is valid but then NZ is just following the rest of the world in a currency war. Is following everyone else the best idea? The USA and Japan central banks appear to have gone bat sh*t crazy.

If I didn't think there was a chance that inflation was transitory then I would be buying another property tomorrow. Demographics, technology, too much debt have been put forward as valid (imo) reasons inflation might not last long.

I have no idea and have proven this time and again over many decades.

P.S. an OCR increase would be expected to reduce NZ wage growth and reverse asset price growth.

[TeslaGod]

20 Years of lower interest rates.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/...ph-90-day-rate

What has happened to home ownership over this time.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/homeo...lmost-70-years

Wealth inequality over the last 20 years

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ir-go-identity
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...leaving-behind

You are either talking your book or through a hole in your ars*. I know which one I am picking.

Based on quick google searches admittedly but I think you would find with proper research the statistics are the opposite of what you are suggesting.

Home ownership rates has been above 60% since 1951 .

70 years of above average home ownership.


You should try to control your temper it weakens your argument and position in the debate.

[TeslaGod]

P.S. an OCR increase would be expected to reduce NZ wage growth and reverse asset price growth.

An OCR increase will not lower asset prices only stall them.

I can guarantee that as I have stated that the system is designed for the wealthy.

A reduction in wage growth will not help young home buyers any closer to accumulating assets.

I may be in the wealthy camp but I am on your side.

My posts are not going to change what's going to happen to the OCR next week.

I'm just trying to educate and inform.

I already understood what was going to happen to asset prices 24 months before the events of 2020.

Looking back being angered by what has happened or is happening is not the way to improve your financial position.

You must understand what's going to happen moving forward.

[FTG]

An OCR increase will not lower asset prices only stall them.

I can guarantee that as I have stated that the system is designed for the wealthy.

.

I would humbly suggest that you both are right......and wrong.

Step back a bit and try look at the bigger picture. You possibly can't see the trees for the forest

When you look at the historical stats (as in over the last 50+ years) it quickly becomes apparent that Interest Rates and Asset Inflation don't always trend in unison. Yes, they can correlate for a period, but there are plenty of instances in history where any "expected" correlations are totally disconnected.

Coming back to 1st principles yes, interest rates provide the lender with a return/yield which MAY be compared to the rate of Inflation, but ultimately interest rate yields are really the market pricing its view of risk. Hence why we have been witnessing negative interest rate yields in some countries. The "Lender" is happy to PAY interest because they have the view that is the lowest risk proposition and they will at least get most of their money back!