ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[Aaron]

Appreciate these types of podcasts are just entertainment if they aren't part of action towards a goal, but finally heard someone mention targeted inflation. 22.45 minutes in. Doesn't really comment on it much other than to say we all know the central banks are only looking at house and stock market prices. I found his views interesting anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WyEPltVWMM

[TeslaGod]

New Zealand's likely heading towards a credit crunch and squeeze on the property market/ since our whole economy is the housing market if we don't recover fast we will likely head into a recession/ to recover the RBNZ will have to lower interest again/most likely negative

This will play out over the next 2 to 3 years.

Your welcome.

[Aaron]

New Zealand's likely heading towards a credit crunch and squeeze on the property market/ since our whole economy is the housing market if we don't recover fast we will likely head into a recession/ to recover the RBNZ will have to lower interest again/most likely negative

This will play out over the next 2 to 3 years.

Your welcome.

Many Thanks for the insight. Why will there be a credit crunch?

Also in todays news. Unemployment rate at 4.7%
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...2020%20quarter.

RBNZ doesn't have a specific target for unemployment, I wonder how long this can be used as an excuse to do nothing while pushing up house prices.

Even the "Asset Free" CPI was 4.9% in the September quarter, well outside of Adrian's 1-3% target.

What do you want to bet he raises interest rates by .25 of a %.

House price rises of 30% probably aren't enough for Adrian's retirement.

[Aaron]

Housing prices are just a supply and demand mismatch no need for the RBNZ to actually do anything to discourage the house buying frenzy. Like raise interest rates significantly.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...?ocid=msedgntp

Fungus Pudding and Adrian reading from the same song sheet.

[TeslaGod]

Many Thanks for the insight. Why will there be a credit crunch?

.

Banks have restricted lending to everyone

Increasing interest rates

No more stimulus

High national debt

There is less liquidity in the system

Technically the credit squeeze has already begun

This doesn't bode well for the NZ real estate market

Or the economy.

The RBNZ needs to let the economic cycle run it's natural course/ and punch the housing market in its face /preferably a bloody nose is acceptable.

Interest rates will have to be lowered again in the next 12 to 24 months.

[Aaron]

Banks have restricted lending to everyone

Increasing interest rates

No more stimulus

High national debt

There is less liquidity in the system

Technically the credit squeeze has already begun

This doesn't bode well for the NZ real estate market

Or the economy.

The RBNZ needs to let the economic cycle run it's natural course/ and punch the housing market in its face /preferably a bloody nose is acceptable.

Interest rates will have to be lowered again in the next 12 to 24 months.

The economic cycle tried to get rid of mal investment back in 2008/09. Central Banks kicked the can down the road for a long time. How could negative interest rates or even negative real rates be called natural by anyone other than a central banker or a moron. I think it is called return free risk.

Or possibly your investment calculations rely on capital gains rather than cashflow. In which case Adrian Orr is your best friend right now.

Ducking and diving in this article he averts blame from himself.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...e-house-prices

Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr has issued a fresh warning that high house prices are unsustainable, but says its own low interest rates have only played “a bit part” in the problem.

He dismissed using the official cash rate to suppress house prices, saying that wasn’t in its mandate and would not make sense.

If the OCR only plays a "bit part" in the problem why is he pooping in his pants at the thought of raising interest rates. Is he stupid or a liar. Pretty sure he is not stupid.

Good news for you though TeslaGod he will keep the inflation free lunch going as long as possible. Someone else can pay later. Adrian Orr is so weak, not something you want to see from a "leader."

[TeslaGod]

Aaron

Perhaps if you get angry at your device and throw it against wall that will help, very unlikely.

I reiterate, your to emotional to be an investor.

[Aaron]

I reiterate, your to emotional to be an investor.

Is that "too emotional". For someone semi-literate it sounds like you are still managing to do OK for yourself.


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...-rises-to-come

From this article I quote. “The Reserve Bank have lost a credibility for fighting inflation. Only six months ago they predicted inflation right now would be 2.5​ per cent. It’s 4.9​ per cent. That’s a horrendous error,” Alexander said.

This is what central banks want though, TeslaGod gets it. Theoretically 4.9% of his borrowings disappeared if CPI is a good measure of inflation.

Sadly it is a big FU from Adrian to all the people who don't own assets and earn less than him and are trying to pay the bills each week.

[TeslaGod]

Aaron

Your 2 angry.

You need 2 b more like me

cool calm and dead inside.

[Panda-NZ-]

RBA not lifting rates.

Australian economy weaker than NZ's... interesting.