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20-01-2022, 09:07 AM
#671
Interesting that in NZ real long-term bond yields are still barely higher than those prevailing just prior to Covid.
Market sort of saying we don't have an inflation problem ...that needs fixing
Last edited by winner69; 20-01-2022 at 09:51 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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20-01-2022, 09:50 AM
#672
Originally Posted by winner69
Interesting that real long-term bond yields are still barely higher than those prevailing just prior to Covid.
Market sort of saying we don't have an inflation problem ...that needs fixing
Is that NZ rates? Where do you get your information from. I should probably try harder to understand things.
I listen to a lot of market commentators who think deflation will be an issue. I guess the Federal Reserve is only buying $60,000,000,000 a month of bonds now. I wonder how they establish what interest rate they will accept before buying a bond. I don't know but I suppose that is only short term bonds. Would $720,000,000,000 annually even be noticed. I guess the RBNZ isn't doing any bond buying if we are talking about NZ rates.
Some commentators have also suggested there is no price discovery in bond markets anymore, I would have to look back for their reasoning behind this view. Possibly something about central bank buying.
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20-01-2022, 10:08 AM
#673
Originally Posted by Aaron
Is that NZ rates? Where do you get your information from. I should probably try harder to understand things.
I listen to a lot of market commentators who think deflation will be an issue. I guess the Federal Reserve is only buying $60,000,000,000 a month of bonds now. I wonder how they establish what interest rate they will accept before buying a bond. I don't know but I suppose that is only short term bonds. Would $720,000,000,000 annually even be noticed. I guess the RBNZ isn't doing any bond buying if we are talking about NZ rates.
Some commentators have also suggested there is no price discovery in bond markets anymore, I would have to look back for their reasoning behind this view. Possibly something about central bank buying.
Sorry - yes NZ inflation indexed bond yields
Treasury have the data if you can find it ...there is a S&P/NZX Inflation Indexed Government Bond Index thingie
Undrstand it if you want and if you do you would be doing better than Orr and a few others lol
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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20-01-2022, 10:17 AM
#674
Originally Posted by TeslaGod
No/ there is one last cycle.
It all ends around 2030
And a new currency will replace the dollar and the debt.
If we can survive the impending war that will eventually happen (as has happened since the beginning of the long term debt cycle)
Wars happen for more than just political or religious ideology.
Wars happen because money is to be made.
When the virus eventually runs it's course, there's always a good old war that needs the money printers to fire up again.
Just need Russia to make a move on The Ukraine or China to make a move on Taiwan$$
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20-01-2022, 11:14 AM
#675
Originally Posted by TeslaGod
Wars happen for more than just political or religious ideology.
Wars happen because money is to be made.
When the virus eventually runs it's course, there's always a good old war that needs the money printers to fire up again.
Just need Russia to make a move on The Ukraine or China to make a move on Taiwan$$
Will Tesla be making a tank ?
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20-01-2022, 01:22 PM
#676
Originally Posted by TeslaGod
Wars happen for more than just political or religious ideology.
Wars happen because money is to be made.
When the virus eventually runs it's course, there's always a good old war that needs the money printers to fire up again.
Just need Russia to make a move on The Ukraine or China to make a move on Taiwan$$
Should war break out with Russia and the Ukraine, NATO sanctions will be forced on Russia / causing oil prices to soar/
Pain on pain for fixed income earners.
Last edited by TeslaGod; 20-01-2022 at 01:25 PM.
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20-01-2022, 01:33 PM
#677
Originally Posted by TeslaGod
Should war break out with Russia and the Ukraine, NATO sanctions will be forced on Russia / causing oil prices to soar/
Pain on pain for fixed income earners.
Disclaimer: This will increase sales of Teslas.
(Not that they need more sales , but as a company owner I won't complain)
Last edited by TeslaGod; 20-01-2022 at 01:34 PM.
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21-01-2022, 01:13 PM
#678
Total failure by the RBNZ.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news...?ocid=msedgntp
I wonder what they are doing to rectify the situation. I think the Maori word for this is kahore.
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24-01-2022, 08:22 AM
#679
Interesting article, I assume Viktor knows what he is on about.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...inguishedalong
The last couple of paragraphs were interesting he sees that "We're still very much driven by financialization, we're still very much driven by leverage, by assets and asset prices being acute to what we do."
"And so the role of Federal Reserve is not inflation or unemployment, that's not their mandate. Their mandate is being an interlocal, effectively, between two spheres. One is financial markets and capital markets, which are 510 times larger than the underlying economies."
He touches on a problem I think was raised by Karl Marx. How do the owners of society keep their businesses going if a large chunk of the consumers run out of resources. Seems a bit extreme but it is the road we are headed down if you look at wealth inequality over the last 30 years.
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24-01-2022, 08:33 AM
#680
Originally Posted by winner69
Orr can’t be any worse than Wheeler even though he has ‘endorsed’ Wheeler’s recent actions and outlook.
The RB is fueling an inflation problem that will require numerous hikes in the future resulting in an inevitable recession in 2019/2020
They seem blindfolded with some idealistic views at the moment. I hope Orr can see what might happen and start acting now before it’s too hard and all too late
Good luck to him ....seems a nice enough guy.
Posted August 2018
Seemed to have come true .... even if in an unexpected way.
Orr wil go down in history as the worst RBNZ Governor we've had ... think I even said that in 2018 as well
Last edited by winner69; 24-01-2022 at 08:37 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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