ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[Aaron]

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...eaching-record

Another .25% rate hike in April I wonder. More strong leadership from Adrian no doubt.

[stoploss]

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...eaching-record

Another .25% rate hike in April I wonder. More strong leadership from Adrian no doubt.

More like .5% .......

[Aaron]

More like .5% .......

Who knows...

Baby boomers need to protect their house prices, Adrian although independent of govt will be aware of that, as apparently the RBNZ policies only play a "Bit Part" when prices rise but according to the article below may play a bigger role than Adrian is letting on.

Only an opinion piece no useful information but probably good advice for young kiwis in the conclusion. Boomers can always replace them with Pommy, Chinese and Indian immigrants.

Predicting 30,000 a year coming in once our young people have stopped leaving.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...ealands-future


To this foreigner, it has been illuminating to watch NZ’s housing problem deteriorate over the past few years. The attempts to subdue property speculation met with hysterical, misplaced cries of communism or socialism. The vested interests fighting tooth and nail to stop houses being built, despite clear evidence of a shortage. And the commentators and politicians transparently attempting to preserve the status quo for older voters.

Perhaps one day, the penny will drop, and the generations holding New Zealand’s wealth will recognise the gravity of the situation. Not only does this housing market pose a risk to financial stability, it poses a threat to NZ’s future prosperity. If you were a young, ambitious person, would you want to stick around?

[Aaron]

I wonder if Adrian thinks stimulative interest rates could be responsible for labour shortages. Maybe not and that is why the OCR is still at 1%.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...1ffa1c8d61cdd4

Labours answer to out of control monetary policy and inflation... increase benefits and minimum wage.

I personally think they should treat the cause, not the symptom. Rising prices are the symptom and low interest rates and easy money are the cause, so I guess they are not even doing that. They are just adding fuel to the inflation fire.

Opening up immigration to address the labour shortage might stop labour/wages inflation while maintaining house price growth, so only a matter of time before the immigration spigot is opened again, I guess.

Is it possible that benefit payments rising faster than wages could be an incentive to remain a bludging piece of s*it (or bottom feeder as Chris describes them) rather than working or studying to gain some useful skill?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...-other-incomes

The premium for working is being eroded.

Easy money and abandoning the price stability mandate means less thought required for capital allocation and spending.

Interesting quote in the last article.

It is vitally important that the Reserve Bank returns to its mandate and ensure that inflation expectations do not become unhinged.

Returns to its mandate?

(1)The Bank’s main objectives are—
Economic objectives
(a)the economic objectives of—
(i)achieving and maintaining stability in the general level of prices over the medium term; and
(ii)supporting maximum sustainable employment; and
Financial stability objective
(b)the financial stability objective of protecting and promoting the stability of New Zealand’s financial system

I don’t see pumping up properties prices as a stated objective, yet cannot but help think this plays a big part in their thinking. The IMF suggested they were so successful at pumping property prices it has become a threat to financial stability. Does Adrian know what his objectives are? I am not sure he does if people are suggesting he return to them.

Drop the inflation target to zero, trickle down economics is a dumb idea (if you aren't in the top 10-20%) that has had its day.

[unhuman]

Regardless of which party they're in I'm sure all MP's just love Mr Orrs efforts over the last two years:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/house-...OHU476IKFJEWA/

[Aaron]

Regardless of which party they're in I'm sure all MP's just love Mr Orrs efforts over the last two years:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/house-...OHU476IKFJEWA/

A majority of MPs are Gen X I think, so maybe I am hating on the wrong generation, or maybe Gen X should be lumped in with the boomers especially the MPs carrying on policies that protect the older wealthier generations at the expense of future generations.

[Aaron]

Does not fit my narrative that it is all Adrian's fault but interesting none the less.

Good to see he is correctly blamed for overreacting before the pandemic.

30 years of declining interest rates do not get a mention. Immigration gets lumped in with population growth. Possibly mostly a supply issue and lack of investment.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...95936d22574218

Bernard Hickey said the same thing but he knows who to blame and once past blaming people maybe we should start taxing them and start investing in future generations, like we used to.

https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcas...=1000528251106

[Aaron]

An example of the wealth effect which Adrian talks about. We are not America but our current reserve bank governor seems to be following the same policies.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-f...inflation-rest

[Aaron]

Conclusion to the video is confirmation that anyone who does not own a home or have family help into one should not vote National OR Labour.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pg9yoibr8kY

[Aaron]

Not really monetary policy or RBNZ related.

As history has shown once the printing starts eventually people start getting upset when inflation takes off. Traditionally blame has fallen on immigrants and foreigners (or jews in the case of Nazi germany although they blamed other foreigners as well).

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...2TKJBQPPRFXFU/

probably behind the paywall, but the gist of it is the govt and immigration NZ keen to get the immigration spigot open. The "special" one off covid residency visas were forecast to attract 165,000 applications but the headline which is a little misleading is that there could be 60,000 more than this, so 225,000. I am unsure how many get approved but I imagine labour want lots to boost GDP numbers and house prices and to suppress wage increases.

Grow and consume while putting on a ute tax to save the environment. How much carbon will the additional people emit even if they are all using public transport and electric cars.

Why all the lip service to climate change when this govt and preceding govts are all about more people consuming more stuff.

What about giving young kiwis a chance to buy a house before they are crowded out by foreigners again.

yes I am xenophobic and a little racist but is grow and consume really the best way forward for NZ.

Housing supply was starting to catch up with demand but I guess that will not be the case for long. yay more demand for housing. That should help the housing crisis no end.