At a time when we need his guidance and positivity as well as his condescension and disdain.
So the OCR might get to 4% by this time next year but will start falling again towards the end of 2024. Or sooner if the housing market or stock markets fall too far. A tough two years for new home buyers with a mortgage (if they didn't fix) but at least they are on the ladder. Rents continue to go up as well, but not as fast, but note rents will not likely fall again in 2024.
6% of the mortgage got paid through inflation (currency devaluation) over the last year. With mortgage rates at 5% homeowners are still the winners no matter how many whiney stories we will hear over the next couple of years and possibly a few sad ones as well where they did over extend, despite help from the RBNZ.
I still haven't found the economic paper that shows that a 1%-2% inflation is better than prices falling or staying the same.
I guess Orr is doing something to fight CPI inflation but he will have an eye on asset price deflation no doubt. Interesting no political party wants to point the finger at the cause of inflation as I assume they will want the same soft policies from the RBNZ when they are in power. And Adrian looks tough as he now changes from arsonist to firefighter.
If banks stress tested new borrowers at 7% mortgage rates that would indicate potentially how high the RBNZ will let rates go before they become dovish or stop and hope inflation subsides.
We might already be near the top of the tightening cycle with mortgages at 6-6.5%
Adrian will keep us guessing but there is no way he will put CPI inflation ahead of asset price deflation.
I note in the article he will get back to the magical 1%-3% range. Interesting that I think Powell said a while back that he could let inflation run a little hot to make up for the deflationary period, but no central banker will suggest having a deflationary period to make up for the high inflation.
Ostensibly about the continuing brain drain and how bad it is but the graph raises the question in the six years prior to 2021 we had net inflows of at least 50,000 a year and this year we have 7,000 in outflows that is creating a massive labour shortage. What the f**k are all the immigrants (over 300,000(6*50,000) that came in over the last six years doing??
Something doesn't add up.
RE agents and Taxi drivers etc >>> many retired .. I meet a few at Golf ... come to NZ to retire live off the NZ TAX payer
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
Wonder what for .. ?? didn't see anything that bad ... but ST is much stricter than the likes of HC
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
Seems silly to worry about cow farts when you are working against emissions by running an economy based on more people consuming more stuff. (stuff manufactured in China who use coal as a main source of energy)
Tough guy Orr may be raising interest rates a bit, but funding for lending goes on. I guess FFL juices the housing market without affecting the CPI too much.
Jenny Ruth had an article in the herald but they don't seem to show up online, I guess as she writes for a competing publication.
Former Bank of England (BOE) governor Mervyn King has decried money printing by central banks around the world in reaction to the covid-19 pandemic, labelling it a mistake.
Interesting article, basically central banks are not doing any self assessment as to whether their actions are a good idea.
I guess investors on this site will be happy that yields are going up on fixed interest and even dividend yields, provided the economy doesn't crash and take down earnings.
Sad that central banks feel the need to constantly save the speculators.
Does Tesla God still post? He used to say inflation was transitory and interest rates would never go up. Another property spruiker looking like a mug I guess.
Be selling his property to fund a margin call on his TSLA ........
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Originally Posted by clearasmud
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