ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[Aaron]

Out of idle curiosity, will NZ Super start to become affordable once the boomers start dying off?

When is peak boomer, anyway?

Boomers were born 1946 to 1964 so peak boomer started in 1946 I guess. As far as entering retirement we are around the middle. Using those dates mark my words any serious talk of raising the retirement age or means testing nz super will only happen after 2030. Denying benefits they received to the next generation is a hallmark of the boomer generation. (think, paying for your own education, saving for your own retirement, affordable housing)

Will nz super be affordable once the boomer bulge dies off? depends what you mean by affordable. By then retirees will be 67-68yrs old making it more affordable and they will have saved for their own retirement with Kiwisaver but they will still be paying for the boomers retirement and healthcare so hard to define "affordable". It is probably "sustainable" (much like boomer house prices) which is the word preferred by Labour and the RBNZ.

Please note when attacking the "boomer" generation I am tarring everyone with the same brush but I am only talking about the selfish ar*eholes who vote for whichever political party offers them the most without regard for the next generation (not including their own kids). e.g. Labour won last time as they promised to save old people from covid one more promise than National. The next generation (or inflation) will pay off that debt. National is likely to win the next election based on tax cuts rather than initiatives around free education, affordable housing or debt reduction/increase in services.

Neither party will suggest means testing nz super and neither party will suggest taxing capital gains especially on owner/occupier housing.

[Aaron]

Not RBNZ related but thought of SBQ when I saw this headline and did not know where I should post this. Probably shouldn't post it.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other...ae692#image=17

SBQs beloved Canada number 8 among the top ten countries to live in. Well done Canada, obviously they have the right policies for a great country.

Hang on, as most of us live in NZ I am sure you are interested to know if Gods Own made the top 10. I will let SBQ read the article if he wishes to waste his time on pointless drivel and he can inform the rest of Sharetrader where NZ ranks compared to Canada.

[Aaron]

Reuters concerned Adrian might be too aggressive with rate rises.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia...ar-2022-07-10/

If Adrian is the hard ar*se of world central bankers what does that say about the rest of them.

Interest rate declines and more money can't be far away if house prices have declined by 9%, don't want to stop the trickle down.

Looks like Sri Lanka adopting something different to trickle down economics.

[Aaron]

Michael Wood pointing out what a huge amount of immigrants they have let in recently.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/michae...HNRPXAELN64UU/

Still not enough for the "experts" apparently.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...470c90bfbb18ab

More immigration to stop inflation (of labour not capital). Thanks Cameron for your insight. Read some Milton Friedman and get an understanding of what causes inflation.

If more people meant lower inflation what happened over the last 6-7yrs when we had more people than ever coming in? Isn't the low inflation because we exported all our high paying manufacturing jobs to asia because of their cheap labour. What are we doing now importing wage price deflation for the service industry?

In the same herald there is this article.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...VS5V7D7Q4GAW4/

Labour shortages in the UK has meant dairy farmers have cut production. This might prove Cameron's point as the price of butter has increased. But why are there labour shortages both here and in the UK. What have we done that is similar to the UK. I am unsure about their immigration policies but their central bank has been juicing their economy with easy money and low interest rates. Maybe there is a link to inflation and labour shortages caused by an overstimulated economy. I am not smart enough to know maybe Cameron has an opinion.

I wouldn't mind betting we have had a big increase in people working in house building. NZ a nation of house builders to fit in all the immigrants as we lose one of the things I love about NZ. The lack of people. maybe we should have Dave Dobbyn's song "Welcome Home" as our national anthem. I liked it until I realised what he was singing about.

Don't get me wrong anyone who is in now should be treated with respect and kindness, they are Kiwis. Lets just close the door to anyone else or at least partly close it instead of flinging it wide open.

Also I thought with computers, the internet ,robotics etc we were facing a world with no jobs. So much conflicting information it is hard to know what is true anymore.

[Aaron]

Is Bernard Hickey questioning neo liberal economics?

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...30-gdp-bernard

A brave man, no doubt the experts will correct him in the comments section.

Cheap labour and low interest rates have been doing great haven't they? It is only a problem when you try to raise rates or slow down immigration which is why we see so much angst in the media and on share trader about the RBNZ raising rates too much (2.5% soon if the pundits are correct) we haven't seen any thing like this since 2016 a whole 6 years ago.

Every second article seems to be the pressing need for more immigrants.

A world in "CRISIS", doom I tell you dooooom.

Is Bernard's prescription more debt and dare I say it out loud... more tax? did I read that right? I don't know about more tax making things better but Sri Lanka is a good example of tax cuts not always being good. From what I read the current crisis was kicked off with In late 2019, newly elected President Gotabaya Rajapaksa carried out populist tax cuts, reducing revenues just months before the pandemic devastated the economy,

Looks like the Sri Lankans getting what they wanted out of their elected representatives, good on them.

Wait is this the socialist media trying to fool us once again. Tax cuts are always good aren't they?

[Aaron]

Interest.co.nz has a lot of confirmation bias reading today.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...e-nothing-more

What is this? the mass emigration we are expecting not being backed up by actual people leaving, gosh.

MYOB (an accounting software company not sure how good their stats team is) did a survey of 500 people and discovered 20% of NZers are thinking of leaving. I have seen this survey quoted in the news on multiple occasion and regurgitated on share trader and Brook Van Velden quoted it in her opinion piece in the herald this morning.

Extrapolated out it discovered 20% of NZers are thinking of leaving. 1 out of 5 people, wow. Personally I would have questioned the survey before sharing because the result on the face of it does appear to be a load of bol*ocks.

Not for our brave news media and politicians though they spread the results like a farmer preparing the soil for planting with a big load of manure. What they hope to reap I am not sure. Possibly sowing the seeds of discontent?

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...ering-economic

At last a feel good article of sorts. The world doesn't end if GDP stops growing momentarily for two quarters. Someone tell Adrian we don't need unconventional monetary policy because his houses have fallen in value by 20%, they still keep the rain off.

[ynot]

They talk about keynesian economics but really it is the John Law school of economics that current central bankers are following.

An opinion piece from the NZ initiative so surprising as I would have thought they would be very pro trickle down economics. Maybe even they see the actions of the central banks as too extraordinary since 2008.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EU5EGNKLCOYSE/

Confirmation bias reading in the herald this morning. An economist pointing out how the older generation keeps shi**ing on the younger generation and some are starting to give up hope. Points out as I have that neither Labour or National will change this, as selfish older ar*eholes will continue to vote for who ever promises them the most. Labour did it last time with its covid policy last time and I suspect national will this time with tax cuts for the better off half of society(read older generation).

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/robert...6KSDUUOSWMHK4/

I guess being locked out of housing or wealth creating assets unless you want to accept ridiculously low yields and becoming a debt slave. At the same time you are saving for your retirement through Kiwisaver (because we all know that national super will become unaffordable only after the last boomer is on board) while paying off your student debt and paying tax to fund the overly generous and unfunded national superannuation of the older generation who did not save for their retirement.

I still can't understand why young people are not really really angry.

The young has been locked out of housing, absolute disgrace, but don't blame boomers for drawing super. I paid tax for fifty years to fund my retirement. We voted for governments who planned this. I suggest you do the same.

[Aaron]

The young has been locked out of housing, absolute disgrace, but don't blame boomers for drawing super. I paid tax for fifty years to fund my retirement. We voted for governments who planned this. I suggest you do the same.

Many thanks for the advice. I won't be voting for National or Labour but will reserve judgement until more policy comes out and hopefully I am not too lazy to read it. Probably will vote for whoever yells and screams the most. A wasted vote no doubt if whoever I vote for does not get a seat or have popular support.

Difficult to out vote the largest generation but young peoples apathy is also part of the problem. At least 60% of the country is happy, more if you count the votes for both national and labour as they are by and large the same party.

I think nz superannuation is great and should be there to help the retired. I just object to it being universal, i.e. if you don't need welfare you should not get it. My view would be different if money had been put aside from the taxes paid by earlier generations to fund it, but that is not the case.

I don't know if the current situation with nz super was "planned", I hope not anyway as it would reflect poorly on earlier generations. Maybe "ignored" so that unfortunately it is the future generations taxes end up paying for it while they "plan" and save for their own retirement through Kiwisaver.

I also appreciate the recognition monetary policy has locked young people out of the housing market. You never know if monetary policy returns to normal and Adrian "grows a set" in the face of the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the home owning majority when their house prices decline we might see opportunity for the next generation if they are willing to work for it.

[ynot]

Many thanks for the advice. I won't be voting for National or Labour but will reserve judgement until more policy comes out and hopefully I am not too lazy to read it. Probably will vote for whoever yells and screams the most. A wasted vote no doubt if whoever I vote for does not get a seat or have popular support.

Difficult to out vote the largest generation but young peoples apathy is also part of the problem. At least 60% of the country is happy, more if you count the votes for both national and labour as they are by and large the same party.

I think nz superannuation is great and should be there to help the retired. I just object to it being universal, i.e. if you don't need welfare you should not get it. My view would be different if money had been put aside from the taxes paid by earlier generations to fund it, but that is not the case.

I don't know if the current situation with nz super was "planned", I hope not anyway as it would reflect poorly on earlier generations. Maybe "ignored" so that unfortunately it is the future generations taxes end up paying for it while they "plan" and save for their own retirement through Kiwisaver.

I also appreciate the recognition monetary policy has locked young people out of the housing market. You never know if monetary policy returns to normal and Adrian "grows a set" in the face of the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the home owning majority when their house prices decline we might see opportunity for the next generation if they are willing to work for it.

Any country that can not create an environment to provide housing for oncoming generations is a failure. In my book this should be any governments primary focus. My advice to anyone who can not get into a home here is head to Ausi. Preferably five years ago !

[stoploss]

+.50, 2.5 %