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  1. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    a 2% loss of customers plus a likely reduction in people going out anyway.

    Sorry I might be getting off topic.
    Those figures are so not correct. It's 2% of confirmed cases. But not 2% of population. Diamond Princess, 3770 people on board, 10 deaths. 0.265% death rate there. That is a population rate.
    But as Peat said, not the correct thread.

  2. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Those figures are so not correct. It's 2% of confirmed cases. But not 2% of population. Diamond Princess, 3770 people on board, 10 deaths. 0.265% death rate there. That is a population rate.
    But as Peat said, not the correct thread.
    Sorry can't help myself.
    Thanks for calling out my fake news with the 2%. Although your analysis seems overly simplistic as I don't think everyone on board caught the virus but thanks for the optimistic outlook.

    As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.

    Extrapolating those numbers to China, the team estimates that 1.1 percent of symptomatic cases there turned deadly. Considering asymptomatic cases drops that ratio to about 0.5 percent in China, the team calculates.


    The Diamond Princess seems like a good way to judge how deadly the virus is as they tested everyone. If the above is not also fake news then 2% is only for those who become symptomatic. Including asymptomatic people this drops to 1% so half I what I said. and even at .5% in China not quite double what you are suggesting.
    I stand corrected but you might want to get your facts straight as well.

  3. #163
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    Reading the last post I can see why macduffy is shepherding me around to a relevant thread.

    Adrian Orr and low interest rates and easy money is really getting some headlines lately.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...DJ7NCDFPGUMYA/

    I would have voted Social Credit if I thought it was a good idea. I guess the reserve bank buying the govt bonds off the banks provides some income for the trading banks while interest rates are so low.

    Adrian Orr has his hands tied as he has suggested. The govt is the only one who can provide real change. Reduce the Reserve Banks inflation target to zero%.

    I am also confused Adrian Orr says the interest rate suppression is to ensure full employment yet in the news I hear that we import workers for the fishing industry, harvesting and farming. Also I heard a plan to train inmates to drive as we have a driver shortage. Someone is bullshi**ing. Is it Adrian or business leaders, or is Adrian seeing something worse coming down the road.

    Economists predictions earlier this year of a 10% fall in house prices don't appear to have been that prescient either.

  4. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Reading the last post I can see why macduffy is shepherding me around to a relevant thread.

    Adrian Orr and low interest rates and easy money is really getting some headlines lately.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...DJ7NCDFPGUMYA/

    I would have voted Social Credit if I thought it was a good idea. I guess the reserve bank buying the govt bonds off the banks provides some income for the trading banks while interest rates are so low.

    Adrian Orr has his hands tied as he has suggested. The govt is the only one who can provide real change. Reduce the Reserve Banks inflation target to zero%.

    I am also confused Adrian Orr says the interest rate suppression is to ensure full employment yet in the news I hear that we import workers for the fishing industry, harvesting and farming. Also I heard a plan to train inmates to drive as we have a driver shortage. Someone is bullshi**ing. Is it Adrian or business leaders, or is Adrian seeing something worse coming down the road.

    Economists predictions earlier this year of a 10% fall in house prices don't appear to have been that prescient either.
    Personally think the Govt / RBNZ are increasingly wanting to keep property from stalling as that would be far to close to falling in value and as majority of young adult kiwis property mad an ticked to the eyeballs the mandate is to keep the madness flowing while spewing how hard your working to help First time home buyers ... itís the old kick the can down the road
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  5. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Personally think the Govt / RBNZ are increasingly wanting to keep property from stalling as that would be far to close to falling in value and as majority of young adult kiwis property mad an ticked to the eyeballs the mandate is to keep the madness flowing while spewing how hard your working to help First time home buyers ... it’s the old kick the can down the road
    It used to be you take on debt you take on risk but as you say people have an expectation central banks will ensure/insure there is capital gains and that interest rates will get cut each time there is trouble. Currently they are gauranteeing 2% per annum but as all the inflation they are creating is in asset prices you are getting 7%. Who needs yield with capital gains like this. All the while people without assets are not really waking up to the fact that monetary policy has/is destroying any chance they have to get ahead as asset prices soar at double the rate of wage inflation for the last 20 years. This is only sustainable as interest rates have been steadily dropping over this time and people can take on more debt to make up the difference, but we are now at or near zero. Savings are losing 2-3% in purchasing power each year currently, how do you save for a house deposit?

    You might get a handout from this govt but you won't get a hand up as that would require a rethink on monetary policy and whether constantly rising prices is actually a good thing.
    Last edited by Aaron; 08-12-2020 at 09:12 AM.

  6. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Savings are losing 2-3% in purchasing power each year currently, how do you save for a house deposit?
    You have to have equity exposure even if you have a short horizon. (which is counter to standard Mary Holm type advice)
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  7. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    You have to have equity exposure even if you have a short horizon. (which is counter to standard Mary Holm type advice)
    Possibly but holding cash at the moment is contrarian a financial market meltdown would make help cash although I can't see it happening.

    Look at this about the third to last paragraph.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7NZMDY6XRAYJY/

    "Second, the Government should rethink its monetary policy instructions. The case for lifting the rate of consumer price inflation to 2 per cent per year in a post-Covid world seems to be close to non-existent. The costs are too high and the benefits are mainly wishful thinking."

    Although this is from the NZ initiative so now I am unsure if I am a heartless monster or not.

  8. #168
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    Following on from the NZX , maybe they went for another target ......
    Reserve Bank responding to illegal breach of data system

    10 January 2021

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua is responding with urgency to a breach of one of its data systems.
    A third party file sharing service used by the Bank to share and store some sensitive information, has been illegally accessed.
    Governor Adrian Orr says the breach has been contained, and the Bank is treating the matter with the highest priority, and acting with urgency.
    “We are working closely with domestic and international cyber security experts and other relevant authorities as part of our investigation and response to this malicious attack. The nature and extent of information that has been potentially accessed is still being determined, but it may include some commercially and personally sensitive information.”
    “The system has been secured and taken offline until we have completed our initial investigations. It will take time to understand the full implications of this breach, and we are working with system users whose information may have been accessed. Our core functions remain sound and operational.”

  9. #169
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    Fallout from data leak ...Taxpayers Union questions Orr suitability for the job

    https://mailchi.mp/9f8a4889e6aa/orrs...ng-but-upfront
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    Maybe I am being too harsh on Adrian, I see the $NZ has been rising against the $US and the TWI since 2020 despite his low interest rates and easy money. His actions must be less retarded than other central banks namely Japan, China and the USA. In a global currency war I guess wealth and income equality as well as social mobility are victims.

    NZ's success regarding the virus has also helped. Nice to think that putting people before profits has produced a better result for just about everyone rather than if we had half ar*ed it like the UK USA etc.

    Also note in the herald today new rules coming regarding peak livestock to cut our emissions.

    If they can establish peak livestock numbers perhaps they can come out with a peak human number for a country this size. It would seem more important as there is a strong argument that it is human caused climate change.

    Seems like such bu****** sometimes even though the intentions of saving the planet seems a good idea it comes across as a bunch of townies wanting the rural sector to make all the sacrifices so they can continue to fill the cities with more and more people. Have a look at the whole basis for our economy. More and more consumption for more and more growth in a virtuous upward spiral. Change that model and you might get a more sustainable economy.

    Rodd Carr is no doubt a very smart guy but I suspect he could win more people over if he shaved and removed the Tiki then he might appear less like an aging hippy.
    Last edited by Aaron; 23-02-2021 at 09:01 AM.

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    Grant Robertson is weak.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...P6CGHGDGYCHUI/
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300...decisionmaking

    He is asking Adrian Orr to consider housing when making monetary policy decisions. How vague is that? It comes across as so lame and gutless it is infuriating.

    How about getting rid of targeted inflation, that is something more concrete.

    Or possibly talk to stats nz or whoever compiles the CPI. The figures I have are out of date but purchasing a home comprises 5.42% of that index, rent 9.12%, Alcoholic beverages & tobacco 7% Recreation & Culture 9.51%. If your house or rent is 50% or more of your weekly budget perhaps it deserves a much higher weighting in the CPI than alcohol. That would give Adrian a challenge with his inflation target if house costs and rents made up 50% of the basket of goods.

    I would expect such a weak response from a National government but it is disappointing coming from labour.
    Last edited by Aaron; 25-02-2021 at 03:29 PM.

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    I'm pitying Adrian now - juggling all those balls - interest rates, employment, house prices. He'll need to be some new variety Superman!


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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    I'm pitying Adrian now - juggling all those balls - interest rates, employment, house prices. He'll need to be some new variety Superman!

    I am sure he already considers house prices when setting monetary policy so nothing has changed for him in reality. The reserve bank has already predicted a 22% rise in house prices for 2021 so he is obviously already considering them.

    This is just Robertson and Labour pretending they are trying to address the issue of house prices and inequality without actually doing anything.

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...rice-inflation

    With a prediction of 22% for 2021 for house prices I wonder how this fits in with the main reserve bank mandate of price stability and a sound & efficient financial system. My idea of price stability differs to what I am seeing and reading but I lack the intelligence of Adrian Orr or Grant Robertson.

    Perhaps they should clarify what a "sound and efficient financial system" looks like. They aren't blowing a housing bubble provided they can inflate away the debt I suppose. Perhaps it is an efficient way to ensure growing inequality.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I am sure he already considers house prices when setting monetary policy so nothing has changed for him in reality. The reserve bank has already predicted a 22% rise in house prices for 2021 so he is obviously already considering them.

    This is just Robertson and Labour pretending they are trying to address the issue of house prices and inequality without actually doing anything.
    Hopefully the majority of the population will start judging Robertson and Ardern based upon outcomes, rather than the platitudes being espoused about the housing market. Campbell pushed Robertson this morning on that very issue and he became visibly uncomfortable. We need results from this self-declared transformative government, and fast.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zaphod View Post
    Hopefully the majority of the population will start judging Robertson and Ardern based upon outcomes, rather than the platitudes being espoused about the housing market. Campbell pushed Robertson this morning on that very issue and he became visibly uncomfortable. We need results from this self-declared transformative government, and fast.
    Not likely Labour brought in the shift to neoliberal policies and capital over labour, not likely they will change back. Here is someone else's view although some pretty dodgy articles on this site.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/la...onse-kiwi-nces

  16. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    I'm pitying Adrian now - juggling all those balls - interest rates, employment, house prices. He'll need to be some new variety Superman!

    Yeah Govt passing the buck ..such a weak GOVT if only talking could fix housing issues Labour -Greens would be world leaders in fixing housing issues

    Great at slogans getting votes not so good at actual delivering anything
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    No doubt they will be accused of being communist, but probably more like dictatorship. I was suggesting Labour were weak earlier on this thread. Since then denying interest deductions (I have already said I think it is unfair and inconsistent but palatable if new builds get to keep the interest deduction) and extending the bright line test. More aggressive but not at the heart of the problem, monetary policy. Possibly a move away from neoliberalism and more central control is being heralded by the article below. Either that or it is not just me thinking that Adrian Orr comes across as being one of the lesser responsible person in charge of the financial system.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...KUNLMY3YUYOTY/

    I think separating the central bank from government was because politicians could not be relied on to be responsible with the printing press. 30 years of lower interest rates and easier money would indicate even an independent central bank can't help itself. What is the solution to the next crisis? My guess is more money and negative interest rates why limit asset prices with pesky interest rates.

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    Ashley Church is concerned about the changes. Since 1989 he has looked like a financial genius by borrowing and buying houses so any change to the trend for the last 30 years would make home look like an idiot if he is still overleveraged.

    It might also make his criticism of the Reserve Bank LVR restricting first home buyers look stupid as well. I am sure Mr Church has done well out of monetary policy over the last 30 odd years and credits himself as a hard working financial genius. He would like to see it continue by allowing new home buyers to borrow even more to keep things going. Lower interest rates more money has worked well until now,why wouldn't it continue forever?

    Legendary work from the reserve bank on inflation over the last thirty years? I think exporting jobs to countries with low labour costs so we can buy back at lower prices and keep inflation low has been great? Having house prices rise at double the rate of wages would also make him happy no doubt. Having a CPI that may not reflect a normal persons budget might also help. Alcohol & Cigarette costs have a similar weighting as rent. This might be a good reflection for some families but not most.

    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/39327

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    @Aaron

    I agree the housing affordability is a mess. But let's be mindful NZ is a small nation and it's choices are limited in terms of investments. The article is not biased adjusted in terms of inflation figures. As the principle amount on houses always rise (due to inflation), the % mortgage rates will continue to go down over multi-decade time frames. Can you imagine what 20% mortgage rates would be on a $1.5M house in Auckland? Think about it, 1978 is entirely different to the past 20 years - we have not seen hyperinflation yet.

    Mr Church also neglects the fact that 1st time home buyers are unaffected by these changes in LVR. What Mr Church should be arguing about is how the average millionaire in NZ has become so rich solely on investing in residential / real estate properties. A far cry difference compared to the millionaires created in N. American through stock market investments in retirement planning. The NZ Reserve Bank is not to blame but if you ask me to compare. Well the NZRB has made people in NZ rich off buying houses vs in the US, the US Fed has made people rich from rises in the stock market. Talk about wealth inequality!

    There's a lot of things wrong in NZ in terms of financial inequity. As in my other posts in other threads, the key problem in NZ lies in un-fair taxation. Those choosing to buy houses and holding for 10 or 30 or 40 years will definitely get the benefit of tax free capital gains. Those that choose to buy Kiwi Saver funds (as much as the FMA promotes how good they are) will only retire an average life - if they can contribute enough. The KS funds even in PIE, after paying annual mgt fees, FIF / FDR, and taxes on dividends RWT, will result in the individual having less at retirement than the leveraged approach to buying a 2nd home.

    Labour Party was not serious about widening the investment landscape for NZders. No NZ Political party has (after all FIF was introduced by Bill English). When you look at 20% of expat NZ citizens living abroad - there is good reason why.

  20. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    @Aaron

    I agree the housing affordability is a mess. But let's be mindful NZ is a small nation and it's choices are limited in terms of investments. The article is not biased adjusted in terms of inflation figures. As the principle amount on houses always rise (due to inflation), the % mortgage rates will continue to go down over multi-decade time frames. Can you imagine what 20% mortgage rates would be on a $1.5M house in Auckland? Think about it, 1978 is entirely different to the past 20 years - we have not seen hyperinflation yet.

    Mr Church also neglects the fact that 1st time home buyers are unaffected by these changes in LVR. What Mr Church should be arguing about is how the average millionaire in NZ has become so rich solely on investing in residential / real estate properties. A far cry difference compared to the millionaires created in N. American through stock market investments in retirement planning. The NZ Reserve Bank is not to blame but if you ask me to compare. Well the NZRB has made people in NZ rich off buying houses vs in the US, the US Fed has made people rich from rises in the stock market. Talk about wealth inequality!

    There's a lot of things wrong in NZ in terms of financial inequity. As in my other posts in other threads, the key problem in NZ lies in un-fair taxation. Those choosing to buy houses and holding for 10 or 30 or 40 years will definitely get the benefit of tax free capital gains. Those that choose to buy Kiwi Saver funds (as much as the FMA promotes how good they are) will only retire an average life - if they can contribute enough. The KS funds even in PIE, after paying annual mgt fees, FIF / FDR, and taxes on dividends RWT, will result in the individual having less at retirement than the leveraged approach to buying a 2nd home.

    Labour Party was not serious about widening the investment landscape for NZders. No NZ Political party has (after all FIF was introduced by Bill English). When you look at 20% of expat NZ citizens living abroad - there is good reason why.
    Its not just limited safe investments in NZ ... but costs of Land...high subdivision costs / monopoly of building products .. greedy tradies ...
    If we could build nice new houses for a fair amount Vs average household NZ incomes then we wouldn't have a run away housing market

    average annual NZ household disposable income (after tax and transfer payments) was $81,934...so using fair housing values 5x times = $405k

    ultra low interest rates have also of course allow this to ballon... with everyone jumping on board
    Last edited by JBmurc; 28-04-2021 at 10:55 PM.
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