sharetrader
Page 91 of 124 FirstFirst ... 4181878889909192939495101 ... LastLast
Results 901 to 910 of 1234
  1. #901
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,496

    Default

    This doesn't seem sustainable if it is true. But if the rest of the world is doing it, why shouldn't we. Or that is the argument I hear in the paper from experts and economists.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...-rug-pull-soon

  2. #902
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    8,476

    Default

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129...e-on-wednesday

    RBNZ target 4.5% OCR ..thats 7%+ morg rates .... massive recession coming for NZ ...
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  3. #903
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,496

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129...e-on-wednesday

    RBNZ target 4.5% OCR ..thats 7%+ morg rates .... massive recession coming for NZ ...
    Maybe not China central bank may have just started cutting rates if this article is correct. If the rest of the world is doing it, why shouldn't we?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ch...-yields-plunge

    Also saw this pop up, only 98.1% of property sales in the three months to June 2022 made a profit. Oh my god, cuts rates now Adrian. And of those 98.1% of sales, in dollar terms, the median resale profit also dropped to $370,000 from $418,000 in quarter one 2022.

    Only $370,000 profit, although details are light regarding time held etc. this is a disaster that requires immediate govt/central bank intervention. How can a speculator survive on just $370,000 per house, unbelievable. Especially as they are adding so much to the economy and society as a whole. The backbone of NZs economy, buying and selling existing houses at great profit how would we live without them.

    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...ba7dd43c175e95
    Last edited by Aaron; 16-08-2022 at 07:41 AM.

  4. #904
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,496

    Default

    I notice some concern on the Black Monday thread about rising interest rates. A couple of articles to assuage their fears for the property market.

    Migrants flock to open homes
    https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42026

    NZ population is still growing albeit more slowly.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/why-nz...FMOXTSJTEIMS4/

    The grow and consume basis for the economy is still intact.

    That said not sure when the 1,025,000 or so will be leaving according to the MYOB survey. What a bunch of muppets no wonder xero is taking market share.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...eaving-nz.html

    Worse is that the news media and some politicians discussed it like it wasn't a load of cr*p. Maybe think before you print or open your trap. (good advice for me too)
    Last edited by Aaron; 16-08-2022 at 03:40 PM.

  5. #905
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,496

    Default

    Marama Davidson missing the mark once again along with the Human Rights Commission (ugh) asking for rent freezes and more govt control.

    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...fc2efd7594c04c

    If the govt was not so involved in the price of capital through the RBNZ and looking for easy solutions with money printing, would we have house prices rising faster than CPI inflation, ultra low interest rates pushed up house prices so far that buying at ridiculously low yields then pushing up the rent (to match the rising prices) is the only way residential rental investment makes sense (that and RBNZ created capital gains). Anyone waiting for yields to return to more reasonable or normal levels will have been sadly disappointed.

    Also shouldn't $37million a week in housing subsidies be solving the problem of high rents and helping the tenants and landlords, all part of the inflationary money go round that we have created with the financialization of the economy and government intervention to rectify the inequality it creates. Maybe focus less on the "wealth effect" and trickle down economics and provide a stable monetary system. Let investors base their decisions on return on investment rather than when the RBNZ will cut rates again.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...its-money?rm=a

    Limitless capital through money printing and suppression of interest rates so that the normal source of capital (i.e. people who save and invest) can get a return on their money that reflects the cashflow generated from the investment rather than relying on central banks devaluing currency and providing capital gain at no cost (except the inflation tax which hurts the poor more than the asset owners (take note Marama).

    NZ the only wealthy country with no capital gains tax and a regressive GST that makes no concessions for its regressive nature unlike other countries and now we have the inflation tax and Jacinda who is worried about poverty (yeah right) can't work out whats going on.

    Mind you I am unsure if Chris Luxons tax cuts for the really well off is a solution to poverty in NZ. Although at least he doesn't pretend to give a sh*t about the bottom feeders.

    Maybe he is styling his economic policy on Sri Lanka. large tax cuts to get into power. Hope it works out better though. I am guessing the average kiwi is less self centred, selfish and stupid than the average Sri Lankan but I am not sure these days.
    Last edited by Aaron; 18-08-2022 at 10:13 AM. Reason: have a crack at national as well

  6. #906
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,496

    Default

    Latest news Adrian getting tough, raises OCR to level less than half the inflation rate. What a legend.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ODZCFGHYUO77Q/

  7. #907
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    106

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129...e-on-wednesday

    RBNZ target 4.5% OCR ..thats 7%+ morg rates .... massive recession coming for NZ ...
    You've certainly changed your tune. It was only a little over a year ago you were saying:

    May 2021
    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc
    Have only been 1yr Fixing for many years ... I personal don't see high rates coming anytime soon ... far too much debt held by the masses would break the system if seen a spike higher .. personally think banks pushing up the longer end a pure play to get debt holders to sign up for longer rates ... I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see short term rates above 3% this decade its just the way the western world has all gone japanese ...
    6 July 2021
    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc
    All talk >> on the rates rise ...we are a tiny nation that must follow the BIG nations we get most of our funds from and that own are banks .... if they move we will until then any move will be token amount at best

    27 July 2021
    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc
    My two 1yr fixed term loans came up on the 16th of this month I locked it 2.19% with WP week earlier ... quite a jump to 2.55% at present personal I've always just gone for the lowest rate .. I wouldn't count out nil increase from the RBNZ and pure move from the banks to increase profits ...is the quite season for loans Vs the summer months ... wants the bet we will see bank offer sweet summer deals ..
    25th August 2021
    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc
    Rates cant go much higher without really hurting NZ businesses & Consumers ...we are a HIGH COST(HIGH DEBT) -LOW WAGE economy .... only matter of time till we will see our credit rating come under pressure when it all starts to unravel (most likely from a Global correction thats due any month now) ...
    IMHO RBNZ will do a small raise next meeting ...that will be followed by a reduction then negative rates during 2022 as it all comes apart

  8. #908
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
    103

    Default

    NBR paywall - busy body group release paper that may as well be titled No S*** Sherlock - https://www.nbr.co.nz/business/popul...-house-prices/

    "Booming house prices over the past two decades were more about globally low interest rates, the tax system, and restrictions on the supply of land than population growth or construction costs, a joint paper published today says.

    The paper, released by the housing technical working group – a collaboration between Treasury, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development – looks at the key drivers of the housing market over the past 20 years."

    Stephens said the three agencies were committed to better understanding the links between the economy, government policy, monetary policy, and the housing market.

    Wow, so the RBNZ and treasury are going to keep looking into it. We're saved.

  9. #909
    Permanent Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,496

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by unhuman View Post
    NBR paywall - busy body group release paper that may as well be titled No S*** Sherlock - https://www.nbr.co.nz/business/popul...-house-prices/

    "Booming house prices over the past two decades were more about globally low interest rates, the tax system, and restrictions on the supply of land than population growth or construction costs, a joint paper published today says.

    The paper, released by the housing technical working group – a collaboration between Treasury, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development – looks at the key drivers of the housing market over the past 20 years."

    Stephens said the three agencies were committed to better understanding the links between the economy, government policy, monetary policy, and the housing market.

    Wow, so the RBNZ and treasury are going to keep looking into it. We're saved.
    I thought monetary policy only played a "bit" part in house prices according to Adrian?

    Here is a link to a non paywalled article and a link at the bottom to the actual report (I haven't read it yet).

    Interesting that rising rents are more closely linked to increased immigration. Perhaps Marama could address the causes for rising rents rather than suggesting rent freezes like a dumb a*se.

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...d%20households.
    Last edited by Aaron; 18-08-2022 at 02:51 PM.

  10. #910
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    8,476

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by smpl View Post
    You've certainly changed your tune. It was only a little over a year ago you were saying:

    May 2021


    6 July 2021



    27 July 2021


    25th August 2021
    I'm a full time share-trader of course I change my mind ... if you don't move with the times your get wiped out ... I was wrong too think the RBNZ would move much slower as we are such a HIGH debt to household income and most in RES property ...I never thought we would see 1yr fixed rates more than double within 12months ... who did ??? and now another potential 100%+ higher than last years record lows >>> from 2% to 7% !!! talk about kicking your working classes while their down fighting inflation across all basic living expenses ..

    And its not me stating potential 4.5% OCR in the short term ...thats the RBNZ ...I think the pain for NZ households will be greatly felt across the country ... the spending spurge coming back to bite ... still think the OCR will be forced to drop before long into the 4%+ OCR... once the domino's start to fall esp in the property sector
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •