ADRIAN ORR our NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR

[Aaron]

Supply Chains all sorted yet we still have inflation.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/la...est-month-2009

Maybe not supply chains causing inflation then? Must be Putin or maybe there is a lag in inflation now supply chains are fixed.

Mind you the article does not say supply chains are all fixed but the LA port featured a lot in articles about the problem. Maybe Chinese lockdowns have slowed things down. Maybe a recession is on the cards.

With people spending and consuming less we get a reduction in GDP and a recession, yet no celebrations from the climate change townies?

Not sure what they think is the cause of climate change but based on their response to date not more people consuming more stuff obviously. More likely the farmers and the miners making the raw materials for the stuff are the problem so they should pay the price to battle climate change.

Not sure how climate change problems will reduce with central banks able to banish recessions with the printing press and low interest rates. It is almost like the politicians and greenies are saying one thing, yet doing another. I assume it is stupidity rather than deceit because they all seem very genuine and concerned.

[winner69]

Jeez, guru analyst Mark praising our Adrian and the RBNZ


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-pl...3PFZ5OCBUAMXM/

[Aaron]

Jeez, guru analyst Mark praising our Adrian and the RBNZ


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-pl...3PFZ5OCBUAMXM/

His argument is that the RBNZ was less retarded than other world central banks, although on housing valuation metrics I understand NZ did exceptionally well despite Adrian being less of a loose cannon than other central bankers.

I like his conclusion that if Labour had let immigration keep up with the money printing, wage inflation would not be as bad.

Obviously Mark is a deep thinker, or perhaps his industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of central bank stupidity so he is more inclined to support the RBNZ's actions. Do you really need to do any research if the central banks will provide sufficient "liquidity" to keep asset prices elevated.

Interesting to hear the level of research done by some sophisticated investors and money managers investing in the FTX exchange. Real hard working visionaries by the sound of it. Probably just needs some more central bank "liquidity." Mind you FTX is crypto related so they should just invent a new crypto currency to provide their own liquidity.

In other central bank related news my margin lending rate will go up 1% at the end of the month from 6.95% to 7.95%. I thought Adrian was only going to do a .75 rise this week.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...AVKEE4ECDUZBY/

Yields on shares and fixed interest aren't rising as fast borrowing rates are they?

I am sure Mark Lister will not be as forgiving if Adrian tightens too much, I imagine money managers prefer loosening to tightening re monetary policy.

[peat]

croak croak

dude loves to lay into our RBNZ and makes some very convincing arguments

http://croakingcassandra.com/2022/11...s-for-the-mpc/

[JBmurc]

When facing a recession a government should:

- Cut interest rates
- Cut taxes
- Increase its spending

We are facing recession and:

- Interest rates are rising
- Taxes are increasing
- Spending is being cut

[peat]

But do we actually have a recession
yet?

[JBmurc]

But do we actually have a recession
yet?

We must be getting close >> another 75pt rise in rates tomorrow ... will be yet another kicking for those borrowing funds for Business - homes etc

[Ricky-bobby]

But do we actually have a recession
yet?

It does feel like a small moving car crash… I recon it will eventually get there, but it’s going to take its time.

[Aaron]

Not sure what the first line of this article means.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...of-loss-makers

S&P Global Ratings warns global debt is more highly leveraged than before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis as interest rates rise and economies slow.

Debt is leveraged??? I thought these words had the same meaning so debt on debt??

Still don't fully understand the UK pension problem with gilts

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ts-2022-09-28/

To avoid being exposed to market volatility, the schemes typically hedge their positions through gilt derivatives managed by so-called liability-driven investment (LDI) funds.


The LDI derivatives appeared to make matters worse when there was volatility in the gilt market. I guess they were protecting against volatility in other markets.

Bring on the recession I say, it will be painful for many but probably in the long run it might be better than what we have now.

[stoploss]

+0.75 TO 4.25 % Orrsome