sharetrader
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 39

Thread: Zinc

  1. #1
    F.A.B. Huang Chung's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Brisbane, Australia.
    Posts
    2,269

    Default Zinc

    Base metals fans (if there are any left) might find this article on zinc of some interest.

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/oct202008.html
    Last edited by Huang Chung; 21-10-2008 at 11:05 PM.

  2. #2
    Member tobo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Auckland, NZ
    Posts
    451

    Default

    this is the bit i like
    "Now with prices back to the 3-year low of 70 cents/lb, (a historic low level when adjusted for inflation), the market has presented another chance to ride the secular bull in Zinc."
    ToBo

  3. #3
    F.A.B. Huang Chung's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Brisbane, Australia.
    Posts
    2,269

    Default

    Yes Tobo, the report was a little dated, but it was more the background info that lead me to post the article.

    Zinc now under US50c a lb, and 30 day LME inventories show a rise in warehouse stock levels, pointing to possibly more downside pressure on the zn price.

    Significantly more zinc production to be shut down no doubt.

    Now if you look at this from a glass half full perspective, we could be in for the mother of all rallies at some point in time...every chance that at some point there will be a panic that too much production has been withheld, and there bwill be a scramble to secure supply. The trick will be in the timing .

  4. #4
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Posts
    2,629

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Huang Chung View Post
    Yes Tobo, the report was a little dated, but it was more the background info that lead me to post the article.

    Zinc now under US50c a lb, and 30 day LME inventories show a rise in warehouse stock levels, pointing to possibly more downside pressure on the zn price.

    Significantly more zinc production to be shut down no doubt.

    Now if you look at this from a glass half full perspective, we could be in for the mother of all rallies at some point in time...every chance that at some point there will be a panic that too much production has been withheld, and there bwill be a scramble to secure supply. The trick will be in the timing .
    The way I am reading is a slow down is well underway in China, like oil, demand destruction will see China become a net exporter of Zinc again.
    Predict where China is going to be in a year and you will be a winner
    Unlike oil which once used is basically gone for ever, recycling as stated in your report makes a difference.

    Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group
    Largest Zinc Producing Nations (tonnes)
    China
    2,600,000
    Australia
    1,380,000
    Peru
    1,201,794
    United States
    727,000
    Canada
    710,000
    Mexico
    480,000
    Ireland
    425,700
    India
    420,800
    Kazakhstan
    400,000
    Sweden
    192,400

    Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group, 2005

    Largest Zinc Consuming Nations (tonnes)
    China
    3,047,000
    United States
    1,069,000
    Japan
    602,000
    South Korea
    503,000
    Germany
    501,000
    India
    394,000
    Italy
    373,000
    Belgium
    345,000
    Taiwan
    306,000
    France
    271,000

    Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group, 2005
    '''''''''''''''''''''''
    '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME

  5. #5
    F.A.B. Huang Chung's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Brisbane, Australia.
    Posts
    2,269

    Default

    Tricha, the 'oil, once used, is gone forever' argument has been postponed indefinitely, in case you hadn't noticed.

  6. #6
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    3,045

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by countryboy View Post
    ozl are still as far as i understand cashed up..what a time to swoop on some bargains
    Ozl $1.2 billion cash, but only $300m net cash, so not that much cash compare to market cap of over $3 billion.

    I can see zinc going below 50 c. If zinc cant perform during the boom, why would it perform during the bust?
    Last edited by Dr_Who; 23-10-2008 at 08:20 AM.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  7. #7
    F.A.B. Huang Chung's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Brisbane, Australia.
    Posts
    2,269

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    Ozl $1.2 billion cash, but only $300m net cash, so not that much cash compare to market cap of over $3 billion.

    I can see zinc going below 50 c. If zinc cant perform during the boom, why would it perform during the bust?
    Too late my good Doctor....it's already below 50c a lb.

    If you want the definition of 'tragic', have a look at Jabiru Metals (JML). Their flagship Jaguar project is a beautifully rich but small cu/pb/zn/ag orebody, that's come into production at exactly the wrong time. They will probably have mined it out before prices recover.

  8. #8
    F.A.B. Huang Chung's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Brisbane, Australia.
    Posts
    2,269

    Default

    The views of Terramin's Executive Chairman, Kevin Moriarty, on the state of the zinc market are always worth considering in my opinion.

    Have a read of his views on zinc in the attached quarterly released today.

    http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=169023

    One snippet...

    'The current price (commodity) prices reflect the withdrawl and closure of commodity investor positions rather than physical commodity fundamentals. The commodity price movement and outlook is, however, causing significant changes to the world zinc mine supply statistics with many closures (Lenard Shelf, Gordonsville), curtailments (Broken Hill, Golden Grove, Galmoy) and deferments (Perkoa, Black Angel, Ozernoe) announced in the past two months, to name but a few'.

  9. #9
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Posts
    2,629

    Default Forget it, zinc it screwed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Huang Chung View Post
    The views of Terramin's Executive Chairman, Kevin Moriarty, on the state of the zinc market are always worth considering in my opinion.

    Have a read of his views on zinc in the attached quarterly released today.

    Golden Grove, Galmoy) and deferments (Perkoa, Black Angel, Ozernoe) announced in the past two months, to name but a few'.
    China reduces dependence on import of key minerals
    (www.chinamining.org)
    Updated: 2008-10-24 13:30
    Counter: 287


    China has eased its dependence on the import of key minerals in recent years thanks to more exploration discoveries and expanded mining capacities, according to Wang Min, vice-Minister of Land and Resources.

    Now, China's lead-zinc production has met its market demand.

    China imported 51.7 percent of iron ore consumption in 2007 and is expected to see lower weight of the import of iron ore this year.

    The dependence on imported potash minerals dropped from 90 percent in 2001 to 70 percent in 2007, after the discoveries of chromite and nickel deposits.

    Wang said that a large number of new deposits would be identified in the future as more than 70 percent of Chinese territory remain intact.

    Statistics show that China has discovered 1,202 deposits since 2006. Included are 194 large-scale ones and 240 moderate ones.

    '''''''''''''''''''''''
    '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME

  10. #10
    F.A.B. Huang Chung's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Brisbane, Australia.
    Posts
    2,269

    Default

    Thanks for the advice Tricha, but I'll take my chances.

    By the way, we aren't being a bit selective with our posts, are we Tricha?....it took me 30sec cruising around the site you provided the link for to find the following:

    http://www.chinamining.org/News/2008...329d12700.html

    Personally, I wouldn't necessarily believe any of it...the whole site seems like a big propaganda machine that says to foreigners WE DON'T NEED YOU, SO DON'T EXPECT US TO PAY MUCH FOR YOUR COMMODITIES.

    Yeah, right......
    Last edited by Huang Chung; 25-10-2008 at 10:06 AM.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •