2019 NZ Stock Picking Contest

[Leftfield]

Crikey! Who would have picked such a fall from grace for VGL. Fickle market at the moment and anything could happen in the remaining months.
Good luck all!

[Oliver Mander]

Last week must have been an anomaly. Normal service in the top 5 is restored this week, with sylvester and mikeybycrikey playing swapsies yet again. soi6 even managed to extend the lead over LeftField again...in fact, LeftField is in danger if losing 2nd place to MSL Capital (ye gods). As Left Field so confidently states, however...markets are volatile right now and anything could happen!

All Picks
Username	Pick 1	Pick 2	Pick 3	Pick 4	Pick 5	Opening Investment	Closing Investment	add Dividends	add Rights Issue	TOTAL $ RETURN	TOTAL %AGE	TOTAL Annualised %age	Rank
soi6	ATM	PLX	SKO	GTK	VGL	$10,000	$16,951	$31	$0	$6,982	69.8%	102.4%	1
Left Field	ATM	IKE	PLX	SKO	WDT	$10,000	$15,893	$0	$0	$5,893	58.9%	86.4%	2
B - MSL Capital	AFT	FRE	GTK	GXH	PLX	$10,000	$15,767	$121	$0	$5,888	58.9%	86.3%	3
sylvester cat	PLX	THL	ATM	MFT	ARV	$10,000	$15,444	$115	$80	$5,639	56.4%	82.7%	4
silverblizzard888	QEX	MOA	PLX	SML	BLT	$10,000	$15,563	$0	-$18	$5,545	55.5%	81.3%	5

Full results are on the usual website: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks. All the best for the coming week...not sure it has started that well for any of us!

[Leftfield]

I'm hoping IKE's action today is just the start of a HUGE SP gain! lol.

[Oliver Mander]

Results to 13/9. Lead is closing up again, with MSL Capital leaping into 2nd place...not so much their choices, merely the impact of SKO and ATM declines on poor old soi6!
Full results will be available shortly here: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks

Username	Pick 1	Pick 2	Pick 3	Pick 4	Pick 5	Opening Investment	Closing Investment	add Dividends	add Rights Issue	TOTAL $ RETURN	TOTAL %AGE	TOTAL Annualised %age	Rank
soi6	ATM	PLX	SKO	GTK	VGL	$10,000	$16,693	$37	$0	$6,731	67.3%	96.0%	1
B - MSL Capital	AFT	FRE	GTK	GXH	PLX	$10,000	$15,967	$163	$0	$6,131	61.3%	87.4%	2
Left Field	ATM	IKE	PLX	SKO	WDT	$10,000	$16,024	$0	$0	$6,024	60.2%	85.9%	3
sylvester cat	PLX	THL	ATM	MFT	ARV	$10,000	$15,606	$138	$103	$5,847	58.5%	83.4%	4
mikeybycrikey	ATM	HLG	PLX	THL	WDT	$10,000	$15,438	$146	$32	$5,616	56.2%	80.1%	5

[Oliver Mander]

What an interesting week. The top 5 are still the top 5...not much changing there. But the margins are becoming tight...there's now only $300 difference between soi6 in first place and MSL Capital in second. Admittedly, the gap back to 3rd is another $400, so the overall spread of $900 (ie, 9%) between the top 5 continues. ATM was the big mover down this week, impacting everyone EXCEPT MSL Capital; hence their 'catchup' to get close to soi6.

Username	Pick 1	Pick 2	Pick 3	Pick 4	Pick 5	Opening Investment	Closing Investment	add Dividends	add Rights Issue	TOTAL $ RETURN	TOTAL %AGE	TOTAL Annualised %age	Rank
soi6	ATM	PLX	SKO	GTK	VGL	$10,000	$16,230	$37	$0	$6,267	62.7%	87.0%	1
B - MSL Capital	AFT	FRE	GTK	GXH	PLX	$10,000	$15,781	$163	$0	$5,944	59.4%	82.5%	2
sylvester cat	PLX	THL	ATM	MFT	ARV	$10,000	$15,309	$138	$109	$5,555	55.5%	77.1%	3
Left Field	ATM	IKE	PLX	SKO	WDT	$10,000	$15,533	$0	$0	$5,533	55.3%	76.8%	4
mikeybycrikey	ATM	HLG	PLX	THL	WDT	$10,000	$15,191	$146	$32	$5,369	53.7%	74.5%	5

Full results will be available shortly here: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks.
What is worth noting is the slight change in shape of the 'top 5' shares for the year. VGL and AUG have dropped out of the top 5...replace by Meridian and Contact (MEL and CEN). That of course reflects the 'dividend story' in a world of low/negative interest rates and a flight to protect cash in a world of low growth. But it is indeed interesting, and a good reflection of the times we live in.

Your faithful puddytat, Sylvester

[Cool Bear]

What an interesting week. The top 5 are still the top 5...not much changing there. But the margins are becoming tight...there's now only $300 difference between soi6 in first place and MSL Capital in second. Admittedly, the gap back to 3rd is another $400, so the overall spread of $900 (ie, 9%) between the top 5 continues. ATM was the big mover down this week, impacting everyone EXCEPT MSL Capital; hence their 'catchup' to get close to soi6.

Username	Pick 1	Pick 2	Pick 3	Pick 4	Pick 5	Opening Investment	Closing Investment	add Dividends	add Rights Issue	TOTAL $ RETURN	TOTAL %AGE	TOTAL Annualised %age	Rank
soi6	ATM	PLX	SKO	GTK	VGL	$10,000	$16,230	$37	$0	$6,267	62.7%	87.0%	1
B - MSL Capital	AFT	FRE	GTK	GXH	PLX	$10,000	$15,781	$163	$0	$5,944	59.4%	82.5%	2
sylvester cat	PLX	THL	ATM	MFT	ARV	$10,000	$15,309	$138	$109	$5,555	55.5%	77.1%	3
Left Field	ATM	IKE	PLX	SKO	WDT	$10,000	$15,533	$0	$0	$5,533	55.3%	76.8%	4
mikeybycrikey	ATM	HLG	PLX	THL	WDT	$10,000	$15,191	$146	$32	$5,369	53.7%	74.5%	5

Full results will be available shortly here: https://sites.google.com/view/nzsharepicks.
What is worth noting is the slight change in shape of the 'top 5' shares for the year. VGL and AUG have dropped out of the top 5...replace by Meridian and Contact (MEL and CEN). That of course reflects the 'dividend story' in a world of low/negative interest rates and a flight to protect cash in a world of low growth. But it is indeed interesting, and a good reflection of the times we live in.

Your faithful puddytat, Sylvester

Hi Sylvester

Can you amend the results for PGW (I suggest adding $3.10 to the dividends received). As part of the consolidation of the 10 shares into one, shareholders received $3.10 for every 10 shares they held. So PGW is actually a positive investment. Starting price $5.10 becomes $2.00 after the $3.10 cash back. Current price of $2.43 plus dividends makes it positive rather than negative!

Regards
CB

[Snoopy]

Hi Sylvester

As part of the consolidation of the 10 shares into one, shareholders received $3.10 for every 10 shares they held.

No they didn't. Shareholders received either a 31cps 'special dividend'/ 'capital return' on a pre-consolidation basis , or $3.10 for each and every share they held post consolidation by way of a special dividend. I know, because I am a shareholder!

Can you amend the results for PGW (I suggest adding $3.10 to the dividends received).
So PGW is actually a positive investment. Starting price $5.10 becomes $2.00 after the $3.10 cash back. Current price of $2.43 plus dividends makes it positive rather than negative!

Regards
CB

The rest of your post looks all right CB.

SNOOPY

[Oliver Mander]

Will check out the PGW situation this evening. I did think I had it right, I have to say, but it was complicated and I might have missed something. I allowed for the dividend (I thought). My apologies for this....

[Oliver Mander]

No they didn't. Shareholders received either a 31cps 'special dividend'/ 'capital return' on a pre-consolidation basis , or $3.10 for each and every share they held post consolidation by way of a special dividend. I know, because I am a shareholder!



The rest of your post looks all right CB.

SNOOPY

Okay, so please accept my apologies. I missed the capital return :-(. What I have done is "normalised" the share price through the year, by multiplying all prices by 10. I have then added a $3.10 capital return (admittedly under 'rights' to avoid messing with my automated dividend stream!). In re-looking at this, I realised I also did not multiply the March dividend by 10, to account for the pre-consolidation dividend rate - I've corrected this also. This has obviously had an impact on all who picked PGW.

[Oliver Mander]

And we have had a week of CHANGE!! The big news is that soi6 has lost top spot...it was a bad fortnight for SKO, PLX, GTK and VGL - 4 out of their 5 picks. That's also allowed Sylvester Cat to catch up within $100, with another $100 back to Awidara and another $100 to Left Field. Had it not been for applying the correct PGW share consolidation, that's where it would have stayed...but Dead Leaves have blown in from nowhere to be well ahead (by $400) in first place.

Username	Pick 1	Pick 2	Pick 3	Pick 4	Pick 5	Opening Investment	Closing Investment	add Dividends	add Rights Issue	TOTAL $ RETURN	TOTAL %AGE	TOTAL Annualised %age	Rank
Dead Leaves	EBO	KMD	PGW	VTL	PLX	$10,000	$14,119	$329	$1,216	$5,663	56.6%	74.6%	1
soi6	ATM	PLX	SKO	GTK	VGL	$10,000	$15,198	$37	$0	$5,235	52.4%	69.0%	2
sylvester cat	PLX	THL	ATM	MFT	ARV	$10,000	$14,881	$192	$112	$5,185	51.9%	68.3%	3
Awidara	PLX	QEX	TLS	TLT	SPK	$10,000	$14,563	$229	$265	$5,057	50.6%	66.6%	4
Left Field	ATM	IKE	PLX	SKO	WDT	$10,000	$14,974	$0	$0	$4,974	49.7%	65.5%	5

The relative stability of ATM, MFT and the increase in ARV helped Sylvester, while the rise in QEX helped Awidara. The major growth stocks prevalent at the top of the table have definitely been hit by changing sentiment recently...and it means a close competition heading into the end of the year!

Can someone please check that I have now treated PGW correctly. My apologies for missing the capital return...not sure how I managed that :-(.

Sylvester.