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View Poll Results: How Serious is this Bear Market ?

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  • The Bear is just a pussycat, there's nothing to be worried about

    10 10.10%
  • This bear has claws and will scratch some chunks out of you but not much

    39 39.39%
  • This bear has real teeth and will bite serious chunks out of your portfolio if you're not careful

    39 39.39%
  • This bear has teerth and claws and is going to do sustained damage

    11 11.11%
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  1. #41
    IMO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    Where did you hide it? I won't tell! Gold price ramped up slowly during the GFC and then back down again - was still a good decision to buy, just not so good a decision to hold. Commodity funds are probably a better way to hold gold than buried in the back yard?
    Paint your gold brick and use it to keep the door open. Gold is even or slightly up in one year atp, im hoping for a good rise in price from here. .i own a few gold stocks on ASX and a bit of kauri gum.

  2. #42
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    Interesting, thanks. I largely stopped buying shares a couple of years ago and have been selling down since then but am still roughly 50:50 shares and cash in terms of financial assets. Have never invested in gold but am seriously thinking about it this time
    as I think there is potential for the proverbial to really hit the fan this time. I will watch the exchange rates and switch to $US if the $NZ starts to wobble. I think the bigger problems are likely to be elsewhere than US initially and in uncertainty people will look for safety and where is that? Not Europe, not Britain
    Kiwi bonds are Government guaranteed. Cindy's Kindy won't let you down will they ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Paint your gold brick and use it to keep the door open. Gold is even or slightly up in one year atp, im hoping for a good rise in price from here. .i own a few gold stocks on ASX and a bit of kauri gum.
    Kauri Gum? Hugh?Is it wort something? I have a rugby ball sized bit sitting on the bench.
    Googling & found this for you JT
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=11322170
    Last edited by kiora; 23-12-2018 at 05:52 AM.

  4. #44
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    What impending crash in the US?

    You guys worry far too much. So many experts who look after zillions can’t be wrong

    From @carlquintanilla on Twitter
    Number of major Wall Street strategists who think the S&P will fall next year: Zero.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by winner69; 23-12-2018 at 05:55 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #45
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Each time the #SP500 $SPX dropped over -13% in fourth quarter:

    2018 Financial Crisis?

    2008 Financial Crisis

    1987 Black Monday

    1973 Energy Crisis

    1941 World War II

    1929-1937 Great Depression

    1920 Major recession

    1917 World War I

    1907 Financial Crisis

  6. #46
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    I have no experience of bears. It seems to be the case that 'traditional' defensive stocks go up (ARG etc) as expected, but I've been amazed that similar products in the retirement sector, which, basically are still 'property' investments, have gone down. Logically they have a better hope of returns from their business than straight property companies, yet they've taken a bath. Perhaps their drop has been more related to fears for the residential property market?

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    What form have you bought and hold gold?
    Gold Kiwi 1 once coins....but I would recommend going with Kitco and getting Gold Maple 1 0z coins or similar---keeping it in coins is more liquid and there are no issues with purity etc.-------Im just keep them in a coffee can where no one can find them,buried by my oak tree at 15 pleasent ave**




    **just a joke folks --dont go digging up some poor blokes yard
    Last edited by skid; 23-12-2018 at 08:05 AM.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry View Post
    I have no experience of bears. It seems to be the case that 'traditional' defensive stocks go up (ARG etc) as expected, but I've been amazed that similar products in the retirement sector, which, basically are still 'property' investments, have gone down. Logically they have a better hope of returns from their business than straight property companies, yet they've taken a bath. Perhaps their drop has been more related to fears for the residential property market?
    If it gets bad ...property could easily take a hit,although property survived pretty well the last crash here in NZ......USA was a different story--------------------you can always go back and track shares during the GFC

  9. #49
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skid View Post
    If it gets bad ...property could easily take a hit,although property survived pretty well the last crash here in NZ......USA was a different story--------------------you can always go back and track shares during the GFC
    Yes neither did Aussie property but I don't think we will be that lucky this time with 1 in 10 kiwis employed in the property sector if the easy credit that fueled the HUGE increase in values (locally here in just the last couple of years property is up on average 50%+ homes-100%+ sections/land) come under pressure and we see rates forced upwards >> values should well be forced downwards
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  10. #50
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    I guess the US market dictates the world markets especially now with large global investors playing in many markets and the effect of etfs accumulating shares in various markets. The challenges I see in 2019:

    > US Government shutdown and the implications of a long drawn out battle between red and blue
    > US Fed rate hikes continuing and an inverted yield curve
    > US trade war with China escalating especially with Trumps erratic behaviour
    > Brexit looking more and more like a slow moving train crash
    > Slowing growth is Europe, Japan and China

    (not an exhaustive list)

    The thing with a lot of this is that locally our political situation is a lot more stable relatively speaking. While the nzx50 is overvalued, the fundamentals of the companies have not changed materially in the past 6 months, neither has the macro economic environment. Government debt is tracking lower and unemployment is lower, and we aren't in the face of major geo-political changes.

    The skeleton is the closet is a housing related crash toppling the rest of the market. The current government, just like the last government have been ineffective in controlling household debt which is currently at an all time high of about 170% and a drop in house prices like they have done in Australia is imo the biggest risk to the macro environment locally.

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