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View Poll Results: How Serious is this Bear Market ?

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  • The Bear is just a pussycat, there's nothing to be worried about

    10 10.10%
  • This bear has claws and will scratch some chunks out of you but not much

    39 39.39%
  • This bear has real teeth and will bite serious chunks out of your portfolio if you're not careful

    39 39.39%
  • This bear has teerth and claws and is going to do sustained damage

    11 11.11%
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  1. #46
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    I have no experience of bears. It seems to be the case that 'traditional' defensive stocks go up (ARG etc) as expected, but I've been amazed that similar products in the retirement sector, which, basically are still 'property' investments, have gone down. Logically they have a better hope of returns from their business than straight property companies, yet they've taken a bath. Perhaps their drop has been more related to fears for the residential property market?

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    What form have you bought and hold gold?
    Gold Kiwi 1 once coins....but I would recommend going with Kitco and getting Gold Maple 1 0z coins or similar---keeping it in coins is more liquid and there are no issues with purity etc.-------Im just keep them in a coffee can where no one can find them,buried by my oak tree at 15 pleasent ave**




    **just a joke folks --dont go digging up some poor blokes yard
    Last edited by skid; 23-12-2018 at 08:05 AM.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerry View Post
    I have no experience of bears. It seems to be the case that 'traditional' defensive stocks go up (ARG etc) as expected, but I've been amazed that similar products in the retirement sector, which, basically are still 'property' investments, have gone down. Logically they have a better hope of returns from their business than straight property companies, yet they've taken a bath. Perhaps their drop has been more related to fears for the residential property market?
    If it gets bad ...property could easily take a hit,although property survived pretty well the last crash here in NZ......USA was a different story--------------------you can always go back and track shares during the GFC

  4. #49
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skid View Post
    If it gets bad ...property could easily take a hit,although property survived pretty well the last crash here in NZ......USA was a different story--------------------you can always go back and track shares during the GFC
    Yes neither did Aussie property but I don't think we will be that lucky this time with 1 in 10 kiwis employed in the property sector if the easy credit that fueled the HUGE increase in values (locally here in just the last couple of years property is up on average 50%+ homes-100%+ sections/land) come under pressure and we see rates forced upwards >> values should well be forced downwards
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  5. #50
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    I guess the US market dictates the world markets especially now with large global investors playing in many markets and the effect of etfs accumulating shares in various markets. The challenges I see in 2019:

    > US Government shutdown and the implications of a long drawn out battle between red and blue
    > US Fed rate hikes continuing and an inverted yield curve
    > US trade war with China escalating especially with Trumps erratic behaviour
    > Brexit looking more and more like a slow moving train crash
    > Slowing growth is Europe, Japan and China

    (not an exhaustive list)

    The thing with a lot of this is that locally our political situation is a lot more stable relatively speaking. While the nzx50 is overvalued, the fundamentals of the companies have not changed materially in the past 6 months, neither has the macro economic environment. Government debt is tracking lower and unemployment is lower, and we aren't in the face of major geo-political changes.

    The skeleton is the closet is a housing related crash toppling the rest of the market. The current government, just like the last government have been ineffective in controlling household debt which is currently at an all time high of about 170% and a drop in house prices like they have done in Australia is imo the biggest risk to the macro environment locally.

  6. #51
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    Political bears don't bite that hard.

    Defence in REIT, opportunity inbound on the rebound 2019-2020.

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by skid View Post
    Gold Kiwi 1 once coins....but I would recommend going with Kitco and getting Gold Maple 1 0z coins or similar---keeping it in coins is more liquid and there are no issues with purity etc.-------Im just keep them in a coffee can where no one can find them,buried by my oak tree at 15 pleasent ave**




    **just a joke folks --dont go digging up some poor blokes yard
    Too late. Neighbourhood destroyed.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    Too late. Neighbourhood destroyed.

    Just tell them it was in self defence.....You saw a bear

  9. #54
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    Hey everything's going to be alright, Trump's going to fire Jerome Powell next!
    Lost for words, the wheels, axels, brakes & steering wheel have all come off.

  10. #55
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    I donít mind the trumpet. The Americans hired him because they wanted a wall. Who knows whether it comes, but someone will pull out. Whether it be one or the other the wall will get built and the world will survive. Merry Christmas to ALL including Jacinda and Trump.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    I donít mind the trumpet. The Americans hired him because they wanted a wall. Who knows whether it comes, but someone will pull out. Whether it be one or the other the wall will get built and the world will survive. Merry Christmas to ALL including Jacinda and Trump.
    Trump should build only the USA/North side of the wall. and add the South side when Mexico coughs up.

  12. #57
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    As frustrating as Trump is, it's refreshing to have a politician attempt to carry out a lot of what they said they would.

  13. #58
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Interestingly there's been quite a big late swing towards option 3 and 4 in the last couple of days. Those believing this is quite a benign situation were in a clear majority a few days ago and now its virtually a 50/50 call. Seriousness of the situation starting to sink in ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  14. #59
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    As frustrating as Trump is, it's refreshing to have a politician attempt to carry out a lot of what they said they would.
    It certainly is a rarity .... might not agree with his ideas but he does seem to have great stamina to get them done
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  15. #60
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    He's had the Congress and the House to get them done.

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