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View Poll Results: How Serious is this Bear Market ?

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  • The Bear is just a pussycat, there's nothing to be worried about

    10 10.10%
  • This bear has claws and will scratch some chunks out of you but not much

    39 39.39%
  • This bear has real teeth and will bite serious chunks out of your portfolio if you're not careful

    39 39.39%
  • This bear has teerth and claws and is going to do sustained damage

    11 11.11%
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  1. #1
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Default How Serious is this Bear ?

    Interesting survey of US market participants shared on CNBC this morning that I won't share till later so as not to influence this poll.
    But I think its time for a poll to determine our outlook for the NZX for 2019.

    With numerous technical sell signals being fired off and many of the overseas markets looking weak and vulnerable the purpose of this poll is to garner opinion from the collective on how bad prospects are for 2019 ?

    Please excuse the metaphorical terminology in the poll questions...I couldn't help myself
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-12-2018 at 02:00 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #2
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    With respect to the US markets we are only down about 12%-13%. So a better question would be will this correction turn into a Bear. There are other markets in Bear territory though. I’ll vote as late as possible.

  3. #3
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Depends upon the index. Russell 2000, the broadest measure is officially down 20%+
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #4
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  5. #5
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    I must admit what I found very interesting and more than a little disconcerting yesterday morning on CNBC was Fed Ex downgrading its outlook significantly based on what its seeing both within America, within Asia with Chinese and Asian growth slowing and in Europe with Brexit. These freight companies are usually a very reliable bellwether indicator for how economic growth is trending. I took particular note of their forward PE being just 10.5 and wondered about the implications for companies like Mainfreight which has been something of a quiet darling of the market for quite some years now and also to some extent Freightways.

    More worrying is what this suggests about global economic growth in 2019. Some analysts believe our average forward market PE is still above 20 and yet the consensus forward PE on the S&P 500 is apparently just 14.5.

    Its interesting that this poll is pretty well evenly split between people who think there's either no bear or the bear will be quite moderate and those that think the bear has real teeth AND claws. This is not dissimilar to the poll of millionaires (those with more that $1m investable funds) conducted by CNBC yesterday.

    I think our market is materially more expensive than a lot of others in terms of its metrics but may hold up relatively well because of the high dividend yields.
    That said I also think a very healthy degree of caution and defensiveness is well and truly warranted for one's portfolio as we head into 2019 and being very selective about what stocks you own and how they would weather a possible recession makes good common sense.

    There is nothing wrong with holding some cash in these uncertain times and I have over 50% of investable funds in cash at present which is an acknowledgement that overall I think the tide is going out next year so be very careful where you swim !
    Last edited by Beagle; 21-12-2018 at 07:32 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #6
    Trying to get outta here
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    I'm all in the market bear or not, the only cash I have on the sidelines is that which sits in my trading balance on a temporary basis. I don't see the point in holding any substantial amount of cash in a bank account or under ones mattress, I live a very frugal lifestyle and are happy that way.

  7. #7
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    [QUOTE=Beagle;741964]I must admit what I found very interesting and more than a little disconcerting yesterday morning on CNBC was Fed Ex downgrading its outlook significantly based on what its seeing both within America, within Asia with Chinese and Asian growth slowing and in Europe with Brexit. These freight companies are usually a very reliable bellwether indicator for how economic growth is trending. I took particular note of their forward PE being just 10.5 and wondered about the implications for companies like Mainfreight which has been something of a quiet darling of the market for quite some years now and also to some extent Freightways.

    Same thoughts when I saw those comments from FedEx. Mainfreight has held up remarkably well with barely a hiccup, given their significant operations in USA & Europe. Would have thought Brexit uncertainty would impact on their Euro division.
    Disc: hold MFT and love its quiet consistent delivery of results.

  8. #8
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    Practically no one wants to catch the falling knife atp so looking grim.NZ up 4% for the year could be the best global performer atp.

  9. #9
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Same thoughts when I saw those comments from FedEx. Mainfreight has held up remarkably well with barely a hiccup, given their significant operations in USA & Europe. Would have thought Brexit uncertainty would impact on their Euro division.
    Disc: hold MFT and love its quiet consistent delivery of results.
    Fed Ex's comments were forward looking. MFT held up well "so far". Can you not sense the economic storm approaching ? MFT PE 25.4, Fed Ex 10.5 Hmmmm
    It has been a tremendous performer over the years I am happy to acknowledge that but as the old saying goes, past performance is no guarantee of future performance ! Good luck !
    Last edited by Beagle; 21-12-2018 at 08:41 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Practically no one wants to catch the falling knife atp so looking grim.NZ up 4% for the year could be the best global performer atp.
    We aren't really up 4% on a comparative basis as the NZX50 is a gross index. On a capital basis we are probably about flat which is still a good effort this year globally...

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I'm all in the market bear or not
    I would expect nothing else from you Couta. I have great admiration for the positions you take -- even if I have nowhere near the same "bravery".

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Practically no one wants to catch the falling knife atp so looking grim.NZ up 4% for the year could be the best global performer atp.
    Still plenty of buying going on ....still the same number of shares out there
    “Imagination is more important than knowledge.”

  13. #13
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    Exactly right there winner.
    For you to sell somebody has to buy them from you

  14. #14
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    Im talking globally guys especially USA. Look at the macro.Beware, and yes so far we are in the lucky country here.

  15. #15
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    I’ll continue to use the stock market as my savings account and buy every few weeks as I’ve done since I started investing 2016. As more data comes in it does feel like this correction will lead to a bear and perhaps it’s smart to take some money off the table but I would rather use it as an opportunity to buy cheaper shares. The longer and more violent the bear market is the better off I’ll be at the top of the next cycle.

    For many here with decades of wealth accumulated and are closer to retirement this isn’t very wise. For the younger posters a bear market is really a great opportunity and should be welcomed as long as we keep employed of course.

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