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View Poll Results: How Serious is this Bear Market ?

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  • The Bear is just a pussycat, there's nothing to be worried about

    10 10.10%
  • This bear has claws and will scratch some chunks out of you but not much

    39 39.39%
  • This bear has real teeth and will bite serious chunks out of your portfolio if you're not careful

    39 39.39%
  • This bear has teerth and claws and is going to do sustained damage

    11 11.11%
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  1. #11
    Member Onion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I'm all in the market bear or not
    I would expect nothing else from you Couta. I have great admiration for the positions you take -- even if I have nowhere near the same "bravery".

  2. #12
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Practically no one wants to catch the falling knife atp so looking grim.NZ up 4% for the year could be the best global performer atp.
    Still plenty of buying going on ....still the same number of shares out there
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #13
    Senior Member
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    Exactly right there winner.
    For you to sell somebody has to buy them from you

  4. #14
    IMO
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    Im talking globally guys especially USA. Look at the macro.Beware, and yes so far we are in the lucky country here.

  5. #15
    Senior Member
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    I’ll continue to use the stock market as my savings account and buy every few weeks as I’ve done since I started investing 2016. As more data comes in it does feel like this correction will lead to a bear and perhaps it’s smart to take some money off the table but I would rather use it as an opportunity to buy cheaper shares. The longer and more violent the bear market is the better off I’ll be at the top of the next cycle.

    For many here with decades of wealth accumulated and are closer to retirement this isn’t very wise. For the younger posters a bear market is really a great opportunity and should be welcomed as long as we keep employed of course.

  6. #16
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    I’ll continue to use the stock market as my savings account and buy every few weeks as I’ve done since I started investing 2016. As more data comes in it does feel like this correction will lead to a bear and perhaps it’s smart to take some money off the table but I would rather use it as an opportunity to buy cheaper shares. The longer and more violent the bear market is the better off I’ll be at the top of the next cycle.

    For many here with decades of wealth accumulated and are closer to retirement this isn’t very wise. For the younger posters a bear market is really a great opportunity and should be welcomed as long as we keep employed of course.
    Good post. This coming year or so could provide outstanding opportunities for younger people to buy very good quality shares at an outstanding price. I hold over 50% cash and will look to deploy some of that as soon as I see decent evidence of green shoots appearing. The poor GDP number this week could be just the beginning. Somewhere near 50% chance of a recession in 2019 or 2020 in my opinion and it could be a tough one.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #17
    Guru
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    I would expect nothing else from you Couta. I have great admiration for the positions you take -- even if I have nowhere near the same "bravery".
    Is it well researched bravery? Staying in, is a good adage for someone not actively involved in the sharemarket--But for someone in touch isnt there a new area of defensive shares to explore? or just keeping cash handy? At any given time cash is worth x amount of shares.And shares either increase or decrease their value.There are alot of moving parts here ...but the end result is how many shares(or how much cash) you have in 6mos.n time----You are either going to save valuable cash(=shares) or you are going to lose value of shares by getting out/in-----that really depends on how rosy things are looking in general-----how rosy are they looking? what is the cost of exiting and re entering? what is the cost of staying in?
    Last edited by skid; 21-12-2018 at 11:53 AM.

  8. #18
    Senior Member
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    Some musings.

    I started out by wondering how serious is this poll? Then I got sidetracked into thinking about boats, and that turned to "how serious am I as an investor?", and that went back via more musings about life and all that deep and meaningful stuff via more boats and diving and how can I justify blowing $s on liveaboard holidays to go round and round the same circle.

    Then Couta1 posted about being all in, and not holding cash. That was enlightening, because I/we am too. In fact for about 20 years I/we have always had any spare money in the market - either on my own or my kids account. And the value of the portfolio goes up and the value of the portfolio goes down, but over the last twenty years it has always gone up more than down. That might or might not continue, but since I/we have just kept living within my income and putting a wee bit away, it keeps growing anyway. Some people see the signs of we have a bear coming? Eventually they have gotta be right. So the nest egg goes down - a bit, a lot, or maybe not.
    be wiped out or

    Which brings me back to the boats and the amazing diving in the Coral Sea and doing it while we still can vs really sweating about the coming bear and how to cover my testicles. And I don't care about the bear because I/we can't take it with me/us, and though I/we don't live as frugally as Couta1, my week in the Coral Sea could well be paid for or made insignificant in relation to a market disaster by a sneeze in the Global Economy.
    So I don't care about the bear!

  9. #19
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    Just reminding us of the prime debt debacle so this new bear has grown a set of teeth and sharpened claws and will do damage but I will be buying/accumulating those stocks I'm wanting, so bring it on! Gut-feel-portfolio has undergone autophagy for 2018 and needing to chew some stocks to break its fast come 2019

  10. #20
    Outside thinking.
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    I'm with Couta and davflaws.

    Bullmarkets come and they go..... and as I've said before, "the day I see Warren Buffett sell out of his portfolio, will be the day I panic."

    While remaining 80% invested, I have 20% available for any bargains as they arise, and am mindful that indexes such as the NZX, S&P, Dow etc are really just averaging machines. Within these 'averages' there will always be shares that underperform and shares that out-perform. It is the TA and FA of individual companies that I watch the most. My investing goals are always long term in nature with an eye to beating the 'average' as defined by NZX50 and beating average term deposit levels offered by the banks.

    So far I've managed that every year I've been invested. Indeed my once doubtful retirement fund is now way more than I'll ever need.

    2018 has been my toughest investment year so far both in terms of the stock picking competition and my own portfolio which is currently up 21% ytd, despite this I remain hopefully 'well positioned.'

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